The ‘72 Dolphins celebrated, some people swear they heard both jets and tanks near MetLife Stadium, and Carson Wentz hit the bench.
Let’s see how last week’s action shook up our rankings.
Risers and Fallers
The playoffs are looming -- which teams have increased and decreased their postseason chances from last week. The Philadelphia Eagles’ loss in Green Bay put them 1.5 games behind the Washington Football Team and New York Giants, the NFC East co-leaders; their playoff odds also dropped by 16.9%.
The Giants are the big risers this week (to 22nd) after winning on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. They have the same record as Washington, but two of New York's five wins so far have been against WFT, giving Big Blue the tiebreaker should the two teams finish with the same record.
Currently, numberFire’s model gives the Giants and Washington playoff odds of 52.6% and 42.6%, respectively.
Another big swing in playoff odds comes in the AFC North, where the Cleveland Browns now have an 87.1% chance of getting into the playoffs (up 18.5% from last week). The Baltimore Ravens’ playoff odds dropped 14.7 percentage points but still sit pretty nicely at 71.2% thanks to the easiest remaining schedule (by average nERD rating).
Here are our Week 14 NFL Power Rankings:
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | New York Jets | -14.07 | 0-12 | 0.00% | 0 | 32 | 28 |
| 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -10.47 | 1-11 | 0.00% | 0 | 30 | 26 |
| 30 | Detroit Lions | -8.09 | 5-7 | 2.00% | 0 | 20 | 32 |
| 29 | Cincinnati Bengals | -7.38 | 2-9-1 | 0.00% | -1 | 26 | 24 |
| 28 | Dallas Cowboys | -7.26 | 3-9 | 1.70% | 1 | 24 | 27 |
| 27 | Philadelphia Eagles | -5.99 | 3-8-1 | 4.80% | -1 | 28 | 18 |
| 26 | Denver Broncos | -5.22 | 4-8 | 0.00% | 1 | 31 | 8 |
| 25 | Las Vegas Raiders | -3.76 | 7-5 | 30.80% | -3 | 12 | 31 |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | -3.66 | 9-3 | 87.10% | 0 | 16 | 25 |
| 23 | Houston Texans | -3.4 | 4-8 | 0.00% | 0 | 11 | 29 |
The New York Jets almost did it -- they almost won a game. But they didn’t and alas are still at the bottom of our rankings. With the Las Vegas Raiders down four points, 13 seconds left of the clock, and no timeouts, Derek Carr hit Henry Ruggs for a 46-yard touchdown pass to keep the Jets winless.
Jets’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams brought an all-out blitz with no deep safety on that play, and that decision was met with...criticism. Yeah, let’s call it criticism. Any way you look at it, Williams was fired the next day. numberFire’s win probability gave the Raiders a 7.89% chance to pull off the win before the Ruggs' score.
Baker Mayfield and the Browns (ranked 24th) had themselves a day, building a 31-point lead over the Tennessee Titans in the first half.
Yeah, Baker threw four first-half touchdowns, posted 13.5 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP), secured a 87.5% Passing Success Rate on play-action passes (both best in the NFL for Week 13), and even snagged an impressive catch for a first down.
But Baker’s highlight of the day was his slide and spin into the celebration after tossing his fourth touchdown of the first half to Rashard Higgins.
Amazing. @CALLME_WOOD | @bakermayfield pic.twitter.com/uhUt2x0qfO
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 7, 2020
The Browns' defense was also able to contain Derrick Henry -- not only holding him to 60 yards rushing, but also limiting his long run of the day to only 10 yards.
While Cleveland's 9-3 record stands out among teams in this tier -- as do their playoff odds -- the Browns own a mere -15 point differential, the 9th-best mark in the AFC and the 20th-best clip overall.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | New York Giants | -3.26 | 5-7 | 52.60% | 3 | 27 | 13 |
| 21 | Chicago Bears | -2.49 | 5-7 | 8.40% | -1 | 29 | 9 |
| 20 | Carolina Panthers | -1.25 | 4-8 | 0.40% | -2 | 13 | 21 |
| 19 | Atlanta Falcons | -0.63 | 4-8 | 0.50% | 0 | 17 | 16 |
| 18 | Los Angeles Chargers | -0.36 | 3-9 | 0.00% | -5 | 18 | 14 |
| 17 | New England Patriots | -0.28 | 6-6 | 8.50% | 4 | 19 | 12 |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | 0.31 | 8-4 | 98.20% | -5 | 7 | 23 |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | 0.54 | 8-4 | 64.00% | 1 | 22 | 10 |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings | 0.66 | 6-6 | 36.80% | -2 | 15 | 15 |
| 13 | Miami Dolphins | 0.77 | 8-4 | 57.90% | 2 | 25 | 7 |
The Seahawks' 17-12 loss to the Giants dropped them five spots -- down to 16th. Russell Wilson’s early-season MVP talk has been all but silenced, and he and the Seattle offense have struggled mightily over the last several weeks.
Wilson’s Passing NEP per Drop Back has been steadily dropping throughout the season.
| After Game Number: | Passing NEP per Drop Back |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.56 |
| 2 | 0.51 |
| 3 | 0.41 |
| 4 | 0.39 |
| 5 | 0.33 |
| 6 | 0.33 |
| 7 | 0.27 |
| 8 | 0.29 |
| 9 | 0.27 |
| 10 | 0.22 |
| 11 | 0.23 |
| 12 | 0.22 |
| 13 | 0.18 |
Wilson has been sacked 40 times so far this year, which only trails Carson Wentz, who has been sacked an astonishing 50 times.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Washington | 1.52 | 5-7 | 42.60% | 5 | 23 | 6 |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | 1.83 | 9-3 | 93.30% | 3 | 4 | 22 |
| 10 | Arizona Cardinals | 2.16 | 6-6 | 42.60% | 0 | 6 | 20 |
| 9 | Tennessee Titans | 2.69 | 8-4 | 87.10% | 0 | 3 | 30 |
| 8 | San Francisco 49ers | 3.26 | 5-7 | 21.80% | 0 | 14 | 11 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 4.64 | 7-5 | 71.20% | 0 | 21 | 2 |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6.61 | 11-1 | 100.00% | -1 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 7.4 | 9-3 | 100.00% | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.51 | 7-5 | 88.40% | 0 | 8 | 4 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.86 | 11-1 | 100.00% | -2 | 9 | 3 |
| 2 | New Orleans Saints | 7.97 | 10-2 | 100.00% | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 8.79 | 8-4 | 99.10% | 2 | 10 | 1 |
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ surprise loss to Washington dropped them from atop our rankings to third. Even though Pittsburgh's offense is in but of a rut, their defense has allowed a league-low Success Rate of 38.37% so far this season.
The Green Bay Packers creep up one spot to fifth in our rankings, and their offense now leads the league in NEP per play. They take on the Detroit Lions in what is the most lopsided matchup this week in terms of nERD differential (15.49-point gap). By the way,NFL odds has the Packers as a 7.5-point favorite.
For those of you getting ready for season-long fantasy playoffs -- best of luck!