Fantasy value doesn't have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player's total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player's output per $1,000 in salary -- in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Alvin Kamara. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We're here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let's see who you should be fitting into your Week 14 lineups.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
DraftKings Price: $5,100
Projected Points: 16.1
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.16
Yes -- Jalen Hurts is making his first NFL start. He's also doing so for a team that's had issues protecting its quarterback and getting help from its receivers on the outside. And his matchup leaves a lot to be desired. The 22-year-old rookie is going up against a New Orleans Saints defense that -- according to Pro Football Reference -- is third-best against quarterbacks and has allowed the single fewest rushing yards (75) to the position.
It's worth noting, however, that Justin Herbert (41 rushes and 185 yards on the season) is probably the most mobile quarterback the Saints have faced all year. Hurts brings a lot more with his legs. In roughly a half, he flashed with 5 rushes for 29 yards, in addition to his 109 passing yards and a touchdown this past week against the Green Bay Packers. He wasn't on point, connecting on just 5 of his 12 attempts (including one interception), but his dual-threat ability is what gives him such value this week.
Going back to his time in college, the decorated quarterback averaged 5.3 yards per attempt and 59.6 per game in his 56 appearances with Alabama and Oklahoma. Hurts did so en route to 43 rushing touchdowns, to go with his 80 passing scores. There aren't many quarterbacks who can show you those collegiate numbers, nor his winning ways, particularly in the value category this week.
J.D. McKissic, RB, Washington Football Team
DraftKings Price: $4,900
Projected Points: 11.9
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.43
The bad news is that, due to an injury, we are unlikely to get the electric Antonio Gibson in Week 14. But with the Washington Football Team's lead man sidelined it's J.D. McKissic who figures to get even more work in the backfield, a week after playing 74% of snaps to the tune of 15 opportunities (targets plus carries).
After Gibson went down and Washington got themselves in a hole, McKissic caught 10 balls for 70 yards and rushed 5 times for 8 yards. It marked his third game with double-digit targets and his fifth of at least 8 for 40-plus yards in each. He is a solid receiver disguised as a running back.
The rushing is clearly not McKissic's strong-suit, but the San Francisco 49ers present another negative game script -- they are favored by 3.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook -- for Alex Smith and the passing game. That bodes well for another high-usage week for the pass-catching specialist.
Breshad Perriman, WR, New York Jets
DraftKings Price: $3,900
Projected Points: 9.9
Projected Value: 2.53
Speaking of teams that will need to throw from behind, the New York Jets are candidates on a week-to-week basis. This Sunday, they enter as 13.5-point underdogs on the road against Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks' high-powered passing attack. With that comes a matchup with Seattle's 24th-ranked pass defense, by our metrics.
Sam Darnold should be able to take advantage, and Breshad Perriman is set to benefit. Fellow receiver Denzel Mims left the team for personal reasons to address a family emergency, and coach Adam Gase noted he could miss Sunday's game as a result. That would mean more opportunities for Perriman against a defense that gets wrecked by receivers.
Despite some improvement (a result of Jamal Adams' return) in the secondary, Seattle continues to out-pace all other teams by allowing more than 200 yards beyond any other team to receivers. They've also given up the second-highest target rate to the position, according to JJ Zacharison. Not surprisingly, Perriman ranks as our eighth-best value at the position for Week 14.
Jordan Akins, TE, Houston Texans
DraftKings Price: $2,900
Projected Points: 7.6
Projected Value: 2.63
In the Houston Texans' first full week without the suspended Will Fuller, Jordan Akins let a lot of people down by failing to absorb the targets that would go his and Randall Cobb's way. He ended the day with a mere 2 catches and 10 yards on 3 targets. It was an improvement over his zero-catch day against the Detroit Lions, but it was nowhere near the five- and seven-catch games we have seen from him in 2020.
What was encouraging is Akins' increased usage. He played 70% of snaps, compared to just 34%, 42%, 51%, and 46% in the four weeks prior. He out-snapped fellow tight end Darren Fells 45 to 27 against a tough Indianapolis Colts defense.
The reason to risk it for the biscuit and roll out Akins is in the fact that he is going from facing the league's second-toughest team against tight ends to the league's fifth-worst. The Chicago Bears' above-average defense is giving up 16.3 DraftKings points with nine touchdowns allowed to the position. Akins possesses upside and, more importantly, provides some elite roster flexibility to pay up elsewhere.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.