NFL
NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 16
Which teams grade out as the best units against each offensive skill position through Week 16?

As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.

How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.

Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.

Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.

You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 16's games.

For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.

Quarterback Pass Defense

Defense Passing NEP/
Drop Back
Rank Passing
Success Rate
Rank
Pittsburgh Steelers -0.08 2 41.0% 1
Los Angeles Rams -0.08 1 42.6% 2
Washington Football Team -0.05 3 44.2% 4
Los Angeles Chargers 0.13 17 44.2% 3
New Orleans Saints 0.09 10 45.8% 7
Chicago Bears 0.10 14 45.4% 6
San Francisco 49ers 0.05 7 44.7% 5
Baltimore Ravens 0.04 5 46.2% 8
Kansas City Chiefs 0.08 9 47.2% 13
Miami Dolphins -0.04 4 46.5% 10
Denver Broncos 0.10 15 46.7% 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.05 6 46.3% 9
Dallas Cowboys 0.14 19 46.7% 11
Philadelphia Eagles 0.15 21 48.8% 17
Green Bay Packers 0.10 12 47.6% 14
Arizona Cardinals 0.10 13 48.1% 15
Indianapolis Colts 0.09 11 49.5% 20
Cleveland Browns 0.17 23 48.3% 16
Seattle Seahawks 0.15 22 48.9% 18
Cincinnati Bengals 0.19 24 49.9% 23
Buffalo Bills 0.11 16 49.7% 21
New England Patriots 0.07 8 49.9% 22
Atlanta Falcons 0.21 25 50.2% 25
Las Vegas Raiders 0.27 29 50.1% 24
Carolina Panthers 0.14 20 49.3% 19
Minnesota Vikings 0.23 26 52.2% 27
New York Giants 0.13 18 52.9% 28
Tennessee Titans 0.24 28 53.9% 30
New York Jets 0.24 27 52.1% 26
Jacksonville Jaguars 0.30 30 53.4% 29
Detroit Lions 0.36 32 55.0% 31
Houston Texans 0.32 31 56.5% 32
NFL Average 0.13 48.5%

Running Back Rush Defense

Defense Rushing NEP/
Carry
Rank Rushing
Success Rate
Rank
Pittsburgh Steelers-0.04735.2%1
Baltimore Ravens-0.06335.3%2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-0.13135.5%3
New York Jets-0.05536.1%4
Philadelphia Eagles-0.05436.8%5
Chicago Bears0.011437.4%6
Denver Broncos0.031738.6%7
San Francisco 49ers-0.04939.5%8
New Orleans Saints-0.021040.3%9
New York Giants0.062340.6%10
Seattle Seahawks-0.011240.7%11
Indianapolis Colts-0.011341.3%12
Atlanta Falcons-0.11241.8%13
Los Angeles Rams-0.05641.9%14
Arizona Cardinals0.041842.1%15
Tennessee Titans0.062042.5%16
Miami Dolphins-0.021142.7%17
Washington Football Team-0.04842.9%18
Jacksonville Jaguars0.062143.0%19
Green Bay Packers0.112844.1%20
Cincinnati Bengals0.072444.2%21
Kansas City Chiefs0.062245.0%22
Las Vegas Raiders0.153245.1%23
Los Angeles Chargers0.011545.5%24
Carolina Panthers0.082545.6%25
Buffalo Bills0.051946.0%26
Houston Texans0.153146.8%27
Dallas Cowboys0.082647.0%28
Cleveland Browns0.021648.4%29
Detroit Lions0.123048.8%30
New England Patriots0.102749.4%31
Minnesota Vikings0.122949.9%32
NFL Average0.03 42.7%

Receiving Defense vs. Position

(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)

Defense RB Target
Success Rate
Rank WR Target
Success Rate
Rank TE Target
Success Rate
Rank
Pittsburgh Steelers42.7%1047.9%142.5%1
Washington Football Team46.3%1548.2%255.7%16
Kansas City Chiefs54.7%3049.1%359.5%23
Miami Dolphins57.5%3250.3%452.1%7
Los Angeles Rams38.3%351.4%552.2%8
Los Angeles Chargers37.3%251.5%653.4%10
San Francisco 49ers42.1%751.7%749.4%3
Baltimore Ravens40.8%552.8%859.4%22
Green Bay Packers56.4%3152.8%951.6%5
Carolina Panthers47.0%1753.0%1059.3%21
Buffalo Bills50.0%2253.1%1160.2%26
Cleveland Browns48.7%1953.3%1260.0%25
Cincinnati Bengals53.2%2853.6%1352.9%9
New Orleans Saints42.5%854.0%1450.0%4
Denver Broncos41.6%654.4%1555.4%15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers39.7%454.7%1657.9%20
Dallas Cowboys42.5%854.7%1759.5%24
Chicago Bears33.3%154.9%1853.6%12
Atlanta Falcons45.6%1455.3%1960.3%28
New England Patriots43.4%1156.1%2056.4%17
Indianapolis Colts53.0%2756.7%2151.8%6
Seattle Seahawks50.9%2556.9%2248.6%2
Arizona Cardinals46.7%1657.0%2354.1%13
Las Vegas Raiders44.7%1257.7%2453.6%11
Tennessee Titans54.6%2957.7%2560.2%27
Minnesota Vikings48.5%1857.9%2664.9%32
Philadelphia Eagles45.2%1358.1%2756.4%18
New York Jets49.6%2159.2%2857.4%19
Jacksonville Jaguars50.5%2359.3%2954.7%14
New York Giants49.6%2059.9%3062.9%31
Detroit Lions50.5%2461.0%3161.2%29
Houston Texans52.3%2664.6%3261.8%30
NFL Average46.9% 55.0% 55.8%

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