Net Expected Points (NEP), our metric for determining how effective individual players are at helping their team score points. The Chargers passing game as a whole has been extremely efficient, ranking fifth overall in Adjusted Passing NEP per play, which take strength of schedule into account. Simply put, Rivers and the Chargers have had very little issue moving the ball via the air on their way to an 8-4 start.

Brady and the Patriots enter Week 14 off of a competitive but humbling loss at Lambeau Field against cardiac style of game, leading 19 fourth quarter comebacks and 22 game-winning drives in his career. San Diego is likely to try to establish Ryan Mathews on the ground early on and lean on the run as much as possible, but when Tom Brady and the Patriots are on the other side of the field, anything can happen.

What Is the Game Plan De Jour?

New England has been the toughest team to forecast for over a decade now, both for opposing coaches and fantasy owners. The only true constants in the Patriots offense on any given week are Brady and a game plan that is unlikely to exist on tape. The average football fan looks at this game and sees a potential shootout. The more educated fan knows that both of these teams have shown an ability to buckle down and play defense when the stakes are highest.

Our strongest predictor in favor of a New England victory takes us back to a 2005 defensive struggle between the eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers, who finished 2005 at 4-12, the worst record of the Brett Favre era. The Steelers traveled to Green Bay and forced three turnovers and ran the ball 33 times in a 20-10 victory. Without rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers only tried 16 passes and got a fumble return by Troy Polamalu to break the game open. Favre was only sacked once, but he was held without a touchdown pass as the Packers managed only 103 total yards in the second half.

It's hard to imagine San Diego being so inept on offense at home, where they've averaged over 25 points per game, but New England is a top-10 defense according to our Adjusted Defensive NEP per play metric. A team that brings their defense with them on the road is a team that has a chance to win anywhere.

Brady Doesn't Lose Back to Back Games

Despite the strength of the predictors in favor of San Diego, we have New England emerging victorious 26.69-23.75. The game should be competitive throughout, and the 2.94-point margin of victory should lead to a game that comes down to the final plays.