As we approach the middle of July, NFL training camp is right around the corner, the first preseason games will follow, and then, Week 1 will be here before you know it.
The NFL offseason is coming to an end and we will take a look at some NFL Futures to consider betting. All of these bets can be found on the NFL odds, which has odds for every division winner, conference winner, and player prop. You name it, it's posted over there.
To start things off, we're going to take a look at the NFC East Divison Winner Odds and where you can look to make a bet.
Looking Back to 2020
The 2020 NFL season was unique for many reasons, and we saw that highlighted in the NFC East. To give a quick recap of things, all four teams finished under .500, three teams had at least 10 losses, there were 11 different starting quarterbacks, multiple star players injured, and a partridge in a pear tree.
To say the NFC East had a lot going on would be a bit of an understatement.
The Washington Football Team won the division with a 7-9 record. Dallas Cowboys quarterback, Dak Prescott, played in only five games due to a dislocated ankle. New York Giants running back, Saquon Barkley, played in only two games due to a torn ACL. There were so many storylines to recap for each team, we could be here all day and barely scratch the surface.
The division was a mess, and that has bled into the offseason betting lines, which gives us the tightest division in the NFL. A case can be made for any of the four teams to win the division, but which team has the best value and the best chance to win?
2021 Strength of Schedule
As we look toward the 2021 season, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Dallas Cowboys are the betting favorite to win the NFC East. They have Prescott back from his injury. They are loaded on offense with Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup, and they also have the sixth-easiest strength of schedule, according to SharpFootballStats, putting them in a position to win the NFC East.
| Team | Odds to Win Division | 2021 Strength of Schedule | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | +105 | 6th | 48.80% |
| Washington Football Team | +270 | 28th | 27.00% |
| New York Giants | +440 | 22nd | 18.50% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +550 | 3rd | 15.40% |
As noted above, this is the tightest division in the NFL from a betting perspective. By that, I mean the Eagles at +550 have the shortest odds to win compared to each other division's team with the longest odds. This is notable because the Eagles have the third-easiest strength of schedule in the entire league.
The Cowboys aren't far behind with the sixth-easiest strength of schedule, and they are both significantly ahead of the Washington Football team and the New York Giants. And, with all things considered, the Eagles' 15.40% implied probability to win the division isn't that much worse than Washington (27.0%), who has the second-best odds to win.
This isn't to say Washington won't win the division. In fact, they made a number of solid moves in the offseason. They brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel on offense. They have emerging stars in Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Chase Young. They have a number of good things going for them. But it comes down to the same question I asked above: which team has the best value AND the best chance to win?
The Pick
The Eagles at +550 appear to have the best combination of betting value and ability to win a tightly contested division. Their third-easiest strength of schedule is amazing and one of the best things going for them this year.
Of course, much of this bet depends on the success of Jalen Hurts and their offense this season. Add in a new head coach, Nick Sirianni, and the Eagles will have plenty of questions to answer this season. But buying in early on a team with an easy schedule and favorable betting odds, can spell plenty of profit come the end of the season.