Training camp is over. The preseason games have been played. Rosters are down to 53 names. The next time NFL players take the field, it will be for real.
We made it, people. The 2021 NFL season is upon us.
While all 32 teams will tell you their goal is to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season, we know that not all teams have the same odds of success.
Along with a whole host of other things to wager on, NFL odds has odds on every team's chance of winning the title this season. These odds can be seen below in concert with numberFire's odds.
| Team | FanDuel Sportsbook Super Bowl Odds | nF Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | 10.9% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +650 | 7.5% |
| Buffalo Bills | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Green Bay Packers | +1200 | 7.2% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1400 | 8.7% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1400 | 4.4% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1500 | 6.8% |
| Cleveland Browns | +1600 | 2.3% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +2000 | 2.8% |
| Tennessee Titans | +2500 | 3.3% |
| New Orleans Saints | +3000 | 6.3% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +3000 | 3.0% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +3000 | 2.8% |
| Miami Dolphins | +3200 | 3.2% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +3300 | 2.2% |
| New England Patriots | +3700 | 2.2% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +4000 | 3.3% |
| Denver Broncos | +4100 | 0.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +4400 | 2.4% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +4800 | 2.8% |
| Chicago Bears | +5000 | 1.2% |
| Washington | +5000 | 1.9% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +6000 | 1.2% |
| New York Giants | +7000 | 0.9% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +7500 | 1.3% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +7500 | 0.4% |
| Carolina Panthers | +9000 | 1.1% |
| New York Jets | +12000 | 0.1% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +12000 | 0.8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +12000 | 0.2% |
| Detroit Lions | +18000 | 0.3% |
| Houston Texans | +25000 | 0.3% |
Our odds come courtesy of our nERD metric, which measures the number of points we'd expect a team to win by versus an average opponent on a neutral field.
At present, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a nERD rating of 4.60. This is the highest mark in the NFL and richly deserved for the Super Bowl champions, who are returning an unheard-of 22 starters in the coming season.
However, the bookies have them as only the second favorites to win it all this season -- behind the Kansas City Chiefs. This matches up with our championship odds, as we give the Chiefs a league-best 10.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
This is likely due to Tampa Bay facing a deeper pool of competition in the NFC to reach the big game. While three of the top four teams in nERD come from the AFC (Kansas City, Baltimore, and Buffalo), seven of the top 10 are from the NFC. Additionally, six of the seven worst-ranked teams in our rankings are AFC units.
Among those lowly AFC teams, the Houston Texans are all the way at the bottom of the nERD scale. They have a -5.10 rating, the lowest among all 32 teams, and they're also seeing the longest Super Bowl odds in the league, according to the bookies. It could be a very long year for the Texans.
While Houston is likely a lost cause, teams with longer odds to win the Super Bowl -- both with the FanDuel Sportsbook and by our numbers -- shouldn't be immediately concerned that they have no chance. Before the 2020 season began, the Bucs were available at +1500 to win the trophy, while numberFire gave them a 3.9% chance to win the Super Bowl. This was a longer shot than the Dallas Cowboys (6.6%) and Philadelphia Eagles (4.4%).
If you are looking for a team to take a flier on, the ideal candidates would seem to be the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints. The Rams can be had at odds of +1500 (implied odds of 6.3%), longer odds than six other teams. But by nF's numbers, they have a 6.8% chance of winning the franchise's first Super Bowl since 1999.
You're getting even better value -- according to our numbers -- from the Saints, who are +3000 (3.2%) despite numberFire championship odds of 6.3%. The Green Bay Packers and the Buccaneers are the only NFC teams with better odds than the Rams and Saints.
In the AFC, the Ravens are worth a look. FanDuel Sportsbook has Baltimore at +1400 to win it all, the fifth-best number. That implies a 6.7% chance. Our algorithm gives them title odds of 8.7%.
These odds won't remain the same throughout the year, of course. As more games are played, we'll have a better idea of what each squad is for the 2021 campaign. I'll be checking every week for changes to these odds -- both our numbers and betting odds -- and will report back on the biggest movers and shakers as the season progresses.
Until then, enjoy your last week without meaningful football until 2022. Rest well and eat heartily -- for our journey begins again.