If I'm being perfectly honest with you, I haven't exactly been looking forward to writing this article. Early in the season I surveyed the Thursday night schedule, scoping out my material for the coming weeks, and this one in particular stood out for its total lack of excitement. Even two months ago, the Jaguars and Titans had already established themselves as two of the NFL's suckiest teams: six weeks in, the Jags were winless, and the Titans were just 2-4.
Flash forward to Week 15, and we're still looking at perhaps the two worst teams in the league whose names don't rhyme with "Sue! Pork? Let's." In fact, let's do away with qualifiers: Jacksonville and Tennessee are the worst two teams in football, full stop. They rank next-to-last and dead last, respectively, in nERD, numberFire's holistic statistic (heh!) that measures expected point differential. Why don't we do a shallow dive into some unit-based stats for both teams? (All rankings are based on Net Expected Points, or NEP.)
Jacksonville's offense: 29th in rushing, 32nd in passing, 32nd overall.
Tennessee's offense: 18th in rushing, 29th in passing, 29th overall.
Jacksonville's defense: 18th against the rush, 15th against the pass, 15th overall.
Tennessee's defense: 29th against the rush, 26th against the pass, 29th overall.
The '72 Dolphins, they ain't.
None of these numbers should be a surprise to you, if you've been following any football this year, but it is eye-opening to see them all gathered in one place. Jacksonville's defense has been the one redeeming factor for the team, not because they've been excellent but because they haven't been a complete dumpster fire.
That's in direct opposition to their offense, led by rookie that is his real name), who was one of the least effective rushers in the league during the first half of the season and lost the starting job as a result. Could we see an expanded supporting role for Storm Johnson, the other Jacksonville running back with a ridiculous name? It wouldn't surprise me. It's clear, though, based on this predictor game, that the best Blake Bortles can hope for is to diminish the screw-ups: something like Clausen's 13-of-19 for 141 yards and a score would certainly be a bonus.
The Case for Tennessee
Our second-strongest predictor game (90.35%) is another terrible contest between two terrible teams, naturally: this time, a 2007 meeting between the 1-8 Rams and the 2-7 49ers. Woof. Much like the Cards-Panthers game above, this one featured a single touchdown: a three-yard pass from Marc Bulger to Torry Holt.
Unlike the game above, though, this one featured a lot more passing. Between them, quarterbacks Bulger and Trent Dilfer (who feels like he's been out of the league for at least a decade, but apparently was starting in 2007) threw a combined 74 passes. Some interesting stats: Bulger was sacked 6 times for 50 yards, which means that the Rams' total team passing yards amounted to 105. Dilfer completed less than half of his passes and threw two interceptions. Frank Gore rushed for just over 2 yards a carry on 15 totes. The leading receiver for St. Louis was Torry Holt, with 55 yards. Do you mind if I just skip ahead? I'm getting depressed.
Somehow, despite the utter incompetency of their passing game, the Rams won this one, 13-9. It may be because Steven Jackson was able to manage a solid 92 yards on 23 carries (a perfect 4.0 YPC), but it's more likely because the Rams didn't turn the ball over a single time, while the 49ers coughed it up twice. As bad as the Titans' defense is, they should be able to wreak at least a modicum of havoc on the barren wasteland of the Jaguars' offense. Do Bishop Sankey and Shonn Greene have it in them to carry the team to a victory, especially considering that the Jaguars' rushing defense is comparably stout? Normally, I'd say no, but honestly, when a game features so much bad, somebody's going to do something, right? If Tennessee can force Jacksonville (and in particular Bortles) to make mistakes, they should be able to string together enough points here and there to come away with a win.