Week 2 of the NFL season is nearly in the books, and all that remains is an NFC North divisional clash between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers, both of whom are 0-1.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the over/under set at 48.5 with the Packers favored by 11.5 points. That leads to an implied score of 30.0 to 18.5. Yikes.
That naturally would imply a 4-1 stack for the Packers, but is that the right way to go?
Before we dig in more, don't forget to brush up on some single-game perfect lineup trends and leverage our Sharpstack single-game optimizer for correlated lineup plays.
High-Level Simulation Results
I simulated this game a thousand times -- using numberFire's projections -- to see some high-level takeaways. Here's what I found.
| Player | Pos | Salary | Median Sim FanDuel Points | MVP Odds | Top-5 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | $16,000 | 19.9 | 31.3% | 82.1% |
| Aaron Jones | RB | $12,500 | 18.1 | 24.6% | 72.5% |
| Davante Adams | WR | $15,000 | 16.2 | 13.2% | 68.2% |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | $12,000 | 15.3 | 14.4% | 60.7% |
| Jared Goff | QB | $14,500 | 14.8 | 11.0% | 60.2% |
| Mason Crosby | K | $9,000 | 10.5 | 1.6% | 26.2% |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | $11,000 | 9.5 | 1.4% | 18.8% |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | $10,500 | 7.8 | 0.9% | 12.8% |
| Quintez Cephus | WR | $7,500 | 7.0 | 0.3% | 5.9% |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | $8,000 | 6.8 | 0.0% | 13.8% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | $8,000 | 6.8 | 0.5% | 9.6% |
| Robert Tonyan | TE | $10,000 | 6.5 | 0.2% | 5.8% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | $7,500 | 6.4 | 0.0% | 9.0% |
| Allen Lazard | WR | $8,500 | 6.4 | 0.1% | 11.8% |
| Austin Seibert | K | $8,500 | 6.2 | 0.0% | 3.6% |
| A.J. Dillon | RB | $7,000 | 6.2 | 0.3% | 4.2% |
| Randall Cobb | WR | $6,500 | 5.4 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Trinity Benson | WR | $6,000 | 4.8 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Marcedes Lewis | TE | $5,500 | 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kylin Hill | RB | $5,500 | 1.1 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Slate Breakdown
Last season, we had 12 single-game slates where the spread was 10 or greater and the total was between 45.0 and 50.0 points.
In those 12 optimal lineups, a quarterback was the MVP 8 times. A running back was the MVP thrice, and the other spot went to a receiver. The MVP came from the home team in 9 of 12 matchups, and in all 8 of the games where the home team was a heavy favorite, the MVP came from the home side.
Of the 12 perfect lineups, 7 of them featured multiple receivers, and 4 of them had at least a trio of receivers.
That should have us aiming to load up on the Packers and pass-catchers as a primary process.
Using numberFire's projections as the base, Aaron Rodgers is most likely to lead the slate in FanDuel points and to finish as a top-five scorer, and this would jive with the typical trend in games that fit this spread and over/under. Next up, though, is running back Aaron Jones and not underdog passer Jared Goff. Running backs have been the best pivot away from quarterbacks at MVP, historically.
Goff was fine in Week 1, and 6 of the 12 perfect lineups in similar games featured the losing quarterback. Goff virtually played to expectation in the opening week, but a low average depth of target (6.5 compared to the NFL average of 7.9) and no rushing really caps high-end upside. He's a hard justification for the MVP slot, especially with an 18.5-point implied team total.
The low receiver MVP rate in blowout games is worrisome for Davante Adams at such a high salary. Adams had a 73.0% route rate in Week 1's massive loss but still garnered 20.0% of the team's targets, actually trailing Marquez Valdes-Scantling (22.9% target share). Valdes-Scantling had an elite role in Week 1 overall, securing 3.2 FanDuel points despite 13.1 expected FanDuel points, the largest discrepancy among all receivers. He's under-salaried for Week 2's Monday Night tilt.
D'Andre Swift's 11-carry, 11-target game made for one of the best workloads in all of football in Week 1, and he could be an MVP pivot as a road underdog who churns out double-digit targets again; however, the three running backs from optimal lineups in similar games last season were all found on the pre-game favorite. He played 67.9% of the team's snaps in Week 1, per NextGenStats, fending off Jamaal Williams -- entering a revenge game against the Packers. Williams played 35.7% of the team's snaps in the opener.
The Lions' pass-catchers have value appeal. Their route leaders last week, via NextGenStats, were T.J. Hockenson (49), Kalif Raymond (41), Amon-Ra St. Brown (41), Swift (37), and Trinity Benson (36). They pair well with the Packers' studs.
While the Packers will be chalky, history says it's the right call, and we have plenty of ways to differentiate with the Lions' receivers. Rodgers, Jones, and Adams will eat into each other's MVP draft rates, and the simulations suggest it'll likely be Jones with the best leverage rate.