Tonight's island game should be a good one from a fantasy perspective, with the New York Giants and Kansas City Chiefs combining for a 52.5 total. Unsurprisingly, the hometown Chiefs are heavy favorites at 10.5 points.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Game Overview
Kansas City submitted a dud against the Titans last week, but they've otherwise been a walking shootout nearly every game due to their combination of impressive offense and inept defense. According to numberFire's metrics, the Chiefs rank 5th in schedule-adjusted offense but are 31st on defense.
Meanwhile, the Giants have been below average in both departments, ranking 24th and 21st, respectively. Of course, injuries have been the big story for New York's offense, and they'll once again be without Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay.
According to our Brandon Gdula, this game also rates high in terms of pace, further pointing to a high-scoring affair.
Slate Strategy
Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes ($17,000) and Daniel Jones ($15,000) top numberFire's projections tonight, and Mahomes leads the way by a sizable margin. No surprises there.
Mahomes' faceplant in his last game would perhaps lower his roster percentage on a standard slate, but that's unlikely to be the case on a single-game one. He's averaging 24.4 FanDuel points per game -- far more than anyone else on the board -- and the Chiefs have a 31.50 implied team total. He figures to be the most popular MVP option.
Jones should also draw plenty of attention, too, but not to the extent of Mahomes at least. Kansas City's shoddy defense has been a panacea for opposing offenses, and Jones adds upside with his legs, averaging 5.9 carries and 32.7 rushing yards per game.
Mahomes' primary weapons are next up in our projections, and both Tyreek Hill ($14,000) and Travis Kelce ($13,500) are suitable alternatives at MVP. The duo accounts for roughly half of Mahomes' targets this season.
Hill's top performances include scores of 42.1 and 31.6 FanDuel points this season, so his upside goes without saying. Tight ends tend to be a poor choice at MVP, but Kelce is the rare exception and probably won't see as much MVP love as Mahomes, Jones, and Hill.
Running backs Darrel Williams ($11,500) and Devontae Booker ($12,000) could be ideal MVP candidates if you're looking to be a little different. They're fifth and sixth in numberFire's projections and have enjoyed solid roles as fill-in starters.
Williams only saw 13 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) in last week's blowout loss, but he saw a robust 29 adjusted opportunities the week prior, including lucrative red-zone touches that resulted in two touchdowns. Assuming Kansas City sees a positive game script tonight as expected, Williams should see plenty of volume.
Booker's averaged 21.3 adjusted opportunities and 79.9% snap rate over the past three weeks. He may not be Saquon Barkley, but the role is easy to like.
The Giants' top pass-catchers are probably more suitable as flex plays, though both Sterling Shepard ($11,000) and Kadarius Toney ($8,500) have cracked 20 FanDuel points this season, so you never know. Both players are questionable, but they got limited practices in this week. Frankly, with all the injuries to the Giants this season, it's difficult to predict exactly how targets will shake out, but Shepard and Toney project as the top options.
Darius Slayton ($9,000) and Evan Engram ($7,000) are less exciting, but they can serve as value options. They would get a bump up if Shepard and/or Toney were to sit out.
Mecole Hardman ($7,500) is arguably the top value on the Chiefs' side. His 14.4% target share might not seem like much, but it's amounted to just under 6 targets per game, and he's the only pass-catcher with a double-digit target share behind Hill and Kelce.
It's slim pickings after Hardman. Byron Pringle ($7,000) and Demarcus Robinson ($6,000) could be worth a stab in case a Mahomes touchdown comes their way, but their weekly usage is unremarkable.
Jerick McKinnon ($6,500) has seen an uptick in playing time with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out, but it's only resulted in 9.5 adjusted opportunities per game over the last two weeks.