The NFL playoffs are a unique time, a time during which miniature rivalries spark when teams without much of a history -- such as the forecast for Saturday Night calls for temperatures in the upper 40's with a chance of precipitation in the 70's and winds of 12 miles per hour. Don't expect such mild weather -- and that is quite mild for a January in Pittsburgh -- to slow down Roethlisberger and the passing game. If it gets shut down, it'll be because Baltimore made it happen.

Can Baltimore Slow Down the Pass?

This year, the Baltimore defense struggled with secondary issues, and as a result, they were torched at times, evidenced by Roethlisberger's huge Week 9. But Baltimore actually finished the year ranked 18th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP, so they were just slightly on the wrong half of the league. Pittsburgh, by the way, was 26th, so Flacco actually draws the better matchup.

Speaking of Flacco, he ranked 10th in Passing NEP (89.35) and posted his best Passing NEP ever -- his second-best was 56.40 in 2009.

In addition to some better-than-expected passing, Baltimore has -- now that Bell is out -- the advantage in the backfield. the Patriots won 28-0. 33-10, which is good news bears for the Ravens.

Less than three minutes into the game, the Patriots' Sammy Morris ran in a seven-yard touchdown, but the Pats mustered only three points afterward. Roethlisberger (i.e. Flacco) wasn't great, throwing for 179 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception on 17-of-33 passing. But the Steelers ran for 166 yards, which is good news for Forsett if he can get going on the ground against a good-not-great run defense. Doing so could help the Ravens keep the still-dangerous Steelers offense off the field. The 2008 Steelers had the ball for 35:05.

Those two different outcomes are very close in likelihood, but what do our algorithms ultimately decide?