We have a lot of pieces on numberFire geared toward helping you figure out which players you should roster in your DFS contests on FanDuel, but an important aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play.
Narrowing down your list of potential plays by avoiding those who are destined to underwhelm can go a long way toward helping you create winning lineups.
Zigging when the masses zag is part of giving yourself an edge in DFS, so you'll sometimes be able to make a case for using a player in this piece in an effort to be contrarian -- especially if said player is really good. Inevitably, some of the players I feature in this article will blow up and pop for a big game, but that just comes with the territory of doing a piece like this one -- unless I'm just going to tell you to avoid playing dudes like Jared Goff. I'm not going to do that. I want this piece to be useful.
Here are some players I'm avoiding this week.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Falcons
FanDuel Salary: $7,000
Cordarrelle Patterson has proven me wrong a lot this year, but I'm staying away from him in a brutal matchup at the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints' defense has allowed the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs (16.6), and they've given up just four rushing scores all year. C-Pat does a lot of work in the passing game, but he's still reliant on carries, too, as he's averaging 12.3 rushes per game over the past three.
On the whole, this is a really bad spot for the Atlanta Falcons' offense. We just saw the Saints' D give Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fits last week, and the Falcons will likely be without Calvin Ridley again. It all adds up to an 18.00-point implied total, the second-lowest of the slate.
We project Patterson for 13.4 FanDuel points, which ranks eighth at running back, but I question the upside. I would rather go down in salary to some of the quality value options we have this week -- namely Myles Gaskin ($6,100) and Devontae Booker ($6,300) -- than use Patterson.
Davante Adams, WR, Packers
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Let's get the obvious out of the way -- the loss of Aaron Rodgers really stinks for Davante Adams.
Prior to the Rodgers news, this looked like a smash spot in a potential shootout against a leaky Kansas City Chiefs defense. Adams likely would've been the best play at wideout. Now, he's a lot harder to get behind at his $9,000 salary, which is tops at receiver by $500.
The total in this game is down to 48.0 points, and the Green Bay Packers' implied total has fallen to 20.25 points. Our model still ranks Adams third at receiver and projects him for 15.2 FanDuel points, but on a point-per-dollar basis, we rank him 19th at the position.
Adams is an amazing player, and he's capable of thriving still in this spot. Heck, maybe Jordan Love lights it up against a bad defense. You can make a case for using Adams at what will surely be depressed popularity. I'm just going to have a very hard time sacrificing $9,000 on him.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
The Dallas Cowboys have the slate's second-best implied total (29.5) and are firmly on the stacking radar in a home matchup with the Denver Broncos. This, however, looks like more of an Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200) and Tony Pollard ($5,800) game for the 'Boys because the Broncos are a run-funnel D.
Denver is permitting the 10th-fewest FanDuel points per game to receivers (28.5), but they check in with the 9th-worst run defense, per our metrics. Those tendencies bear out in our projections.
We rate Zeke as the best point-per-dollar play among the backs salaried above $8,000. Meanwhile, we're not as bullish on CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper ($6,900) -- especially Lamb -- as we project them for 12.4 and 12.8 FanDuel points, respectively.
Over the last three games, Cooper and Lamb are dead even with a good-not-great 20% target share, but Cooper has a sizeable edge in air yards share (34% to 23%).
On top of all that, Lamb missed Thursday's practice and isn't a lock to suit up, though Friday's practice status will be more telling.
At his salary, Lamb is the second-worst point-per-dollar play among the top-17 wideouts, according to our numbers.