Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 25+ FDP% | Boom/ Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $8,700 | 26.2 | 3.02 | 20.3 | 32.7 | 54.2% | 3.60 |
| Justin Herbert | $8,000 | 23.5 | 2.94 | 17.8 | 28.2 | 41.7% | 3.01 |
| Dak Prescott | $8,100 | 23.0 | 2.84 | 17.8 | 28.3 | 39.2% | 2.79 |
| Tom Brady | $8,300 | 22.5 | 2.71 | 17.1 | 27.4 | 36.6% | 2.09 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,500 | 19.8 | 2.65 | 14.9 | 24.8 | 24.1% | 1.84 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,800 | 19.8 | 2.54 | 14.8 | 24.9 | 24.7% | 1.37 |
| Jalen Hurts | $7,700 | 19.1 | 2.49 | 13.4 | 24.8 | 24.5% | 1.24 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,300 | 18.5 | 2.53 | 13.3 | 23.1 | 17.9% | 1.34 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $7,200 | 17.9 | 2.48 | 12.9 | 23.3 | 18.3% | 1.29 |
| Russell Wilson | $7,500 | 17.8 | 2.38 | 12.7 | 23.1 | 17.9% | 0.99 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,600 | 17.1 | 2.25 | 12.6 | 22.6 | 17.0% | 0.78 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,400 | 16.7 | 2.26 | 12.1 | 22.2 | 14.4% | 0.83 |
| Mac Jones | $6,500 | 16.3 | 2.51 | 11.7 | 21.6 | 12.9% | 1.37 |
| Kyler Murray | $8,300 | 16.1 | 1.94 | 11.2 | 22.2 | 14.8% | 0.44 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $6,900 | 16.1 | 2.33 | 11.0 | 21.6 | 13.1% | 0.98 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $6,600 | 15.7 | 2.38 | 10.4 | 19.9 | 9.4% | 0.94 |
| Mason Rudolph | $6,300 | 15.7 | 2.49 | 10.4 | 20.4 | 9.7% | 1.16 |
| Baker Mayfield | $6,800 | 15.0 | 2.20 | 10.3 | 19.9 | 9.5% | 0.74 |
| Mike White | $6,700 | 13.5 | 2.01 | 9.1 | 18.2 | 4.6% | 0.49 |
| Jared Goff | $6,500 | 13.3 | 2.05 | 8.8 | 17.8 | 5.2% | 0.51 |
| P.J. Walker | $6,200 | 12.5 | 2.02 | 8.0 | 17.2 | 4.8% | 0.52 |
| Trevor Siemian | $7,000 | 12.0 | 1.72 | 7.4 | 16.5 | 2.2% | 0.24 |
| Taysom Hill | $7,300 | 6.5 | 0.89 | 2.0 | 10.9 | 0.0% | 0.01 |
Running Back
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 20+ FDP% | Boom/ Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | $9,400 | 19.9 | 2.11 | 14.3 | 25.8 | 49.6% | 2.32 |
| Jonathan Taylor | $9,400 | 18.7 | 1.99 | 12.4 | 25.0 | 44.0% | 1.64 |
| Austin Ekeler | $8,600 | 18.7 | 2.17 | 12.8 | 24.8 | 44.9% | 2.27 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,000 | 17.3 | 1.92 | 10.9 | 22.8 | 36.5% | 1.30 |
| D'Andre Swift | $7,300 | 17.0 | 2.33 | 11.5 | 22.8 | 37.1% | 2.70 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,500 | 17.0 | 2.00 | 11.9 | 22.5 | 34.5% | 1.70 |
| Aaron Jones | $8,200 | 16.9 | 2.06 | 11.1 | 22.0 | 34.2% | 1.76 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,000 | 16.7 | 2.09 | 11.3 | 22.4 | 35.0% | 1.90 |
| James Conner | $7,000 | 16.2 | 2.31 | 10.8 | 21.9 | 31.6% | 2.43 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $7,800 | 15.6 | 2.00 | 9.7 | 21.0 | 28.6% | 1.57 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | $5,400 | 15.4 | 2.85 | 9.8 | 20.7 | 28.6% | 4.11 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,400 | 14.8 | 2.00 | 9.3 | 20.1 | 25.3% | 1.52 |
| Mark Ingram | $5,500 | 14.1 | 2.56 | 9.2 | 19.2 | 22.0% | 3.05 |
| Michael Carter | $6,100 | 12.8 | 2.11 | 7.9 | 17.6 | 16.4% | 1.74 |
| Melvin Gordon | $6,300 | 10.9 | 1.73 | 6.2 | 15.9 | 9.3% | 0.96 |
| James Robinson | $7,500 | 10.6 | 1.41 | 6.0 | 15.0 | 6.7% | 0.47 |
| Antonio Gibson | $6,200 | 9.9 | 1.60 | 4.8 | 15.0 | 7.1% | 0.76 |
| Javonte Williams | $5,800 | 9.6 | 1.65 | 5.1 | 14.2 | 7.4% | 0.87 |
| Brandon Bolden | $5,100 | 9.1 | 1.78 | 4.4 | 13.5 | 5.1% | 1.04 |
| Zack Moss | $6,000 | 8.9 | 1.49 | 4.6 | 13.8 | 5.9% | 0.66 |
| Alex Collins | $5,700 | 8.9 | 1.56 | 4.6 | 13.3 | 4.5% | 0.77 |
| Devin Singletary | $6,000 | 8.7 | 1.45 | 4.6 | 13.0 | 5.4% | 0.59 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $5,400 | 8.5 | 1.57 | 4.1 | 12.5 | 3.4% | 0.74 |
| Adrian Peterson | $5,900 | 8.4 | 1.42 | 4.1 | 12.6 | 4.6% | 0.56 |
| Mike Davis | $5,400 | 8.4 | 1.55 | 3.8 | 12.3 | 3.1% | 0.68 |
| A.J. Dillon | $5,300 | 8.2 | 1.55 | 3.9 | 12.5 | 2.5% | 0.76 |
| Tony Pollard | $6,500 | 8.2 | 1.26 | 3.8 | 12.2 | 3.8% | 0.35 |
| J.D. McKissic | $5,400 | 8.1 | 1.50 | 3.4 | 12.4 | 3.8% | 0.67 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,600 | 8.0 | 1.43 | 3.3 | 12.4 | 3.9% | 0.59 |
| Jeremy McNichols | $6,400 | 7.8 | 1.21 | 3.5 | 12.3 | 2.8% | 0.38 |
| Jordan Howard | $5,900 | 7.1 | 1.21 | 3.2 | 11.4 | 1.3% | 0.37 |
| Ty Johnson | $5,300 | 5.9 | 1.12 | 2.0 | 10.6 | 1.0% | 0.40 |
| Ronald Jones | $5,000 | 5.4 | 1.09 | 1.3 | 9.0 | 0.5% | 0.31 |
| Boston Scott | $5,600 | 5.4 | 0.97 | 1.5 | 9.6 | 0.1% | 0.24 |
| J.J. Taylor | $4,800 | 5.2 | 1.08 | 1.2 | 8.7 | 0.3% | 0.30 |
| Alexander Mattison | $6,100 | 4.9 | 0.81 | 1.0 | 8.7 | 0.4% | 0.12 |
| Eno Benjamin | $5,200 | 4.7 | 0.90 | 1.4 | 8.6 | 0.5% | 0.23 |
| Tony Jones Jr. | $4,600 | 4.7 | 1.01 | 1.2 | 8.7 | 0.2% | 0.35 |
| D'Onta Foreman | $5,000 | 4.6 | 0.92 | 0.8 | 8.5 | 0.3% | 0.26 |
| Johnny Stanton | $4,500 | 4.6 | 1.02 | 0.9 | 8.4 | 0.1% | 0.34 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 20+ FDP% | Boom /Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | $8,700 | 17.7 | 2.04 | 12.8 | 23.1 | 37.8% | 1.98 |
| Mike Evans | $7,400 | 15.8 | 2.14 | 10.4 | 21.0 | 29.4% | 2.00 |
| A.J. Brown | $7,600 | 15.5 | 2.04 | 10.1 | 20.6 | 27.4% | 1.65 |
| Stefon Diggs | $7,900 | 14.5 | 1.83 | 9.4 | 19.1 | 20.7% | 1.10 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,700 | 14.2 | 1.85 | 10.1 | 17.9 | 15.1% | 1.19 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,200 | 14.2 | 1.97 | 10.5 | 18.5 | 17.7% | 1.78 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $8,000 | 13.8 | 1.72 | 9.1 | 19.1 | 20.1% | 0.97 |
| Diontae Johnson | $7,400 | 13.7 | 1.85 | 9.0 | 18.6 | 17.4% | 1.27 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,300 | 13.5 | 1.85 | 9.4 | 17.9 | 15.6% | 1.26 |
| Justin Jefferson | $7,500 | 13.3 | 1.77 | 8.3 | 18.0 | 17.1% | 1.05 |
| Terry McLaurin | $7,100 | 13.3 | 1.87 | 7.9 | 18.0 | 15.9% | 1.22 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,100 | 12.8 | 1.80 | 8.2 | 17.1 | 14.0% | 1.08 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,800 | 12.8 | 1.64 | 8.8 | 16.5 | 9.3% | 0.72 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $7,200 | 12.5 | 1.74 | 8.3 | 16.9 | 11.5% | 1.00 |
| Mike Williams | $6,900 | 12.3 | 1.79 | 7.5 | 17.4 | 15.3% | 1.07 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,000 | 12.2 | 1.74 | 7.9 | 16.1 | 10.8% | 0.95 |
| D.J. Moore | $6,800 | 11.7 | 1.72 | 6.6 | 17.0 | 17.7% | 0.96 |
| DeVonta Smith | $6,200 | 10.5 | 1.69 | 5.3 | 15.4 | 9.3% | 0.91 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,100 | 10.2 | 1.68 | 6.7 | 14.1 | 3.6% | 0.88 |
| Cole Beasley | $6,100 | 10.2 | 1.67 | 7.1 | 13.7 | 3.3% | 0.85 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,900 | 9.8 | 1.66 | 5.4 | 13.8 | 6.2% | 0.83 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $5,500 | 9.8 | 1.78 | 5.9 | 13.9 | 3.9% | 1.03 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $6,300 | 9.8 | 1.55 | 5.9 | 13.8 | 4.9% | 0.67 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $6,200 | 9.6 | 1.55 | 4.3 | 14.4 | 8.1% | 0.73 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,600 | 9.5 | 1.44 | 5.0 | 14.6 | 8.2% | 0.60 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,700 | 9.2 | 1.38 | 5.2 | 13.3 | 2.8% | 0.45 |
| Russell Gage | $6,000 | 8.9 | 1.49 | 5.6 | 12.3 | 1.3% | 0.53 |
| Corey Davis | $6,200 | 8.7 | 1.40 | 4.7 | 12.9 | 2.6% | 0.53 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,100 | 8.3 | 1.18 | 5.4 | 11.5 | 1.0% | 0.15 |
| A.J. Green | $5,600 | 8.3 | 1.49 | 4.4 | 12.4 | 2.2% | 0.64 |
| Michael Gallup | $5,500 | 7.7 | 1.41 | 3.7 | 11.8 | 1.3% | 0.55 |
| Laviska Shenault | $5,500 | 7.7 | 1.40 | 4.8 | 10.7 | 0.6% | 0.42 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $6,000 | 7.7 | 1.28 | 4.0 | 11.7 | 1.4% | 0.38 |
| Zach Pascal | $5,600 | 7.6 | 1.36 | 3.8 | 11.5 | 1.6% | 0.48 |
| Tim Patrick | $6,000 | 7.6 | 1.27 | 4.2 | 11.2 | 1.4% | 0.36 |
| Rondale Moore | $5,400 | 7.5 | 1.39 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 0.0% | 0.33 |
| Kalif Raymond | $5,500 | 7.4 | 1.34 | 3.5 | 11.2 | 1.8% | 0.47 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,800 | 7.1 | 1.23 | 3.8 | 10.1 | 0.2% | 0.25 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $5,600 | 6.9 | 1.23 | 3.6 | 10.0 | 0.4% | 0.29 |
| Jamal Agnew | $5,300 | 6.9 | 1.30 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 0.0% | 0.25 |
| Quez Watkins | $5,300 | 6.7 | 1.27 | 4.1 | 9.4 | 0.0% | 0.25 |
| James Washington | $5,100 | 6.6 | 1.29 | 3.0 | 9.9 | 0.2% | 0.39 |
| Nelson Agholor | $5,300 | 6.6 | 1.24 | 2.7 | 11.0 | 1.0% | 0.48 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $5,400 | 6.4 | 1.19 | 3.0 | 9.8 | 0.1% | 0.30 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $5,500 | 6.4 | 1.17 | 3.1 | 9.4 | 0.2% | 0.22 |
| Marquez Callaway | $5,600 | 6.4 | 1.14 | 2.7 | 10.0 | 0.3% | 0.29 |
| Deonte Harris | $5,400 | 6.4 | 1.18 | 3.9 | 8.8 | 0.0% | 0.16 |
| Elijah Moore | $5,700 | 6.1 | 1.06 | 2.4 | 9.6 | 0.4% | 0.22 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,300 | 5.8 | 1.10 | 1.8 | 10.4 | 1.9% | 0.38 |
| K.J. Osborn | $5,300 | 5.8 | 1.09 | 3.1 | 8.8 | 0.3% | 0.23 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,500 | 5.6 | 1.03 | 2.3 | 8.8 | 0.1% | 0.17 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,200 | 5.5 | 1.06 | 1.9 | 9.1 | 0.6% | 0.28 |
| Tajae Sharpe | $5,200 | 5.4 | 1.05 | 2.7 | 8.4 | 0.0% | 0.18 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | $5,500 | 5.3 | 0.95 | 2.4 | 8.0 | 0.0% | 0.13 |
| Tyler Johnson | $5,100 | 5.1 | 1.01 | 2.7 | 7.5 | 0.0% | 0.11 |
| Randall Cobb | $5,500 | 5.1 | 0.92 | 2.4 | 7.7 | 0.0% | 0.11 |
| Allen Lazard | $5,500 | 5.1 | 0.92 | 2.3 | 7.8 | 0.0% | 0.10 |
Tight End
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 15+ FDP% | Boom/ Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | $6,900 | 12.6 | 1.82 | 7.4 | 17.8 | 36.9% | 1.11 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,900 | 10.6 | 1.80 | 6.0 | 14.6 | 23.0% | 1.04 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,500 | 9.5 | 1.47 | 5.3 | 13.5 | 18.0% | 0.53 |
| Dalton Schultz | $6,000 | 9.4 | 1.56 | 5.9 | 12.7 | 14.7% | 0.60 |
| Dawson Knox | $5,800 | 8.3 | 1.42 | 4.6 | 11.6 | 8.9% | 0.48 |
| Dan Arnold | $5,100 | 8.0 | 1.56 | 3.8 | 12.2 | 13.4% | 0.74 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,100 | 7.9 | 1.56 | 4.3 | 11.3 | 8.0% | 0.73 |
| Jared Cook | $5,200 | 7.9 | 1.51 | 3.9 | 11.3 | 9.6% | 0.61 |
| Noah Fant | $5,700 | 7.6 | 1.33 | 3.7 | 11.1 | 7.8% | 0.41 |
| Zach Ertz | $5,200 | 6.8 | 1.31 | 2.9 | 10.4 | 6.4% | 0.43 |
| O.J. Howard | $4,600 | 6.8 | 1.47 | 3.8 | 10.0 | 5.1% | 0.59 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | $5,300 | 6.6 | 1.24 | 3.8 | 9.3 | 2.9% | 0.27 |
| Hunter Henry | $5,400 | 6.5 | 1.21 | 3.2 | 9.9 | 4.6% | 0.31 |
| Tyler Conklin | $5,300 | 6.5 | 1.22 | 3.5 | 10.1 | 3.6% | 0.35 |
| Hayden Hurst | $4,800 | 5.8 | 1.21 | 2.2 | 8.9 | 2.8% | 0.34 |
| Cameron Brate | $4,500 | 5.3 | 1.18 | 2.2 | 8.6 | 3.1% | 0.35 |
| Jonnu Smith | $4,500 | 5.2 | 1.16 | 2.1 | 8.5 | 0.9% | 0.36 |
| David Njoku | $4,900 | 5.0 | 1.01 | 1.7 | 8.2 | 2.4% | 0.22 |
| Adam Trautman | $4,700 | 4.9 | 1.05 | 1.9 | 7.9 | 1.4% | 0.23 |
| Austin Hooper | $4,800 | 4.9 | 1.02 | 1.4 | 8.4 | 2.3% | 0.27 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | $4,800 | 4.2 | 0.88 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 0.9% | 0.16 |
| Gerald Everett | $4,700 | 4.1 | 0.87 | 1.3 | 7.1 | 0.6% | 0.14 |
| Geoff Swaim | $4,500 | 3.9 | 0.88 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 0.1% | 0.15 |
| Jack Doyle | $4,600 | 3.9 | 0.85 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 0.6% | 0.13 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | $5,000 | 3.4 | 0.67 | 0.3 | 6.4 | 0.2% | 0.07 |
| Tommy Tremble | $4,500 | 3.0 | 0.66 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 0.5% | 0.14 |