We have a lot of pieces on numberFire geared toward helping you figure out which players you should roster in your DFS contests on FanDuel, but an important aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play.
Narrowing down your list of potential plays by avoiding those who are destined to underwhelm can go a long way toward helping you create winning lineups.
Zigging when the masses zag is part of giving yourself an edge in DFS, so you'll sometimes be able to make a case for using a player in this piece in an effort to be contrarian -- especially if said player is really good. Inevitably, some of the players I feature in this article will blow up and pop for a big game, but that comes with the territory of doing a piece like this one -- unless I'm going to tell you to avoid playing dudes like Jared Goff. I'm not going to do that. I want this piece to be useful.
Here are some players I'm avoiding this week.
Myles Gaskin, RB, Dolphins
FanDuel Salary: $6,200
Myles Gaskin might be a pretty popular value back this week. He has a low salary and a dope matchup with a New York Jets defense that has permitted 35.4 FanDuel points per game to running backs -- 8.0 more than anyone else.
While I won't outright fade Gaskin, I am planning to be underweight on him. Yes, the matchup is unreal, but it's not a given Gaskin will feast.
Miami has the sixth-worst offense by our numbers and holds just a 23.75-point implied total. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this offense struggles Sunday.
On top of that, Gaskin has been so bad lately. Across his last two games, which includes a similarly cushy matchup with the Houston Texans and a positive game script versus the Baltimore Ravens, Gaskin has totaled 65 rushing yards on 34 carries. Yuck. He's added 7 catches and 34 yards on 8 targets in that time.
The volume is solid for a back who is $6,200, and if Gaskin gets that kind of opportunity against the Jets, he'll likely do enough to justify using him. But the ceiling is pretty blah, and the floor might not be all that good, either. I mean, Gaskin scored 12.7 FanDuel points on 26 total touches against the Texans, and he scored a freakin' touchdown in that game.
All in all, I think there's reason to tread lightly, and with other viable low-salary backs at our disposal -- including Michael Carter ($6,600), A.J. Dillon ($7,000), James Conner ($7,200) and maybe Jeff Wilson ($5,000) -- Gaskin is far from a priority for me.
Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles
FanDuel Salary: $6,600
DeVonta Smith has been outstanding in difficult matchups the last two weeks, getting to the Los Angeles Chargers for 20.1 FanDuel points and tagging the Denver Broncos for 20.6 points. He's going to be a stud wideout in the NFL.
But this week, Smith has what might be his toughest test yet versus the New Orleans Saints' Marshon Lattimore, a star corner who just played a vital role in holding A.J. Brown to one catch for 16 yards on four targets a week ago.
It's a tough matchup overall for the Philadelphia Eagles. This game has an ugly 43.5-point total, and the Eagles are showing a 22.75-point implied total.
In addition to the matchup, Smith has volume concerns. While his slice of the pie is great -- 23% target share and 37% air yards share for the year, the latter of which is double that of any other Eagles pass-catcher -- the pie for the Eagles is pretty small. Over the last three games, Philly has a neutral rush rate of 68%, an eye-popping number. They don't want to pass much, and Jalen Hurts' running ability turns some of the passes they do call into runs.
Even in Smith's two big games the past two weeks, he's seen only six targets apiece.
We have Smith pegged for 11.7 FanDuel points, so our model doesn't mind him. But in a game that won't be fantasy friendly and in an offense that doesn't air it out much, Smith is going to need to hit on big plays like he has the last two weeks to be a fantasy difference-maker. That's not something I want to bank on.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals
FanDuel Salary: $5,600
Tyler Boyd is a low-salary way to get a piece of a Cincinnati Bengals offense that is implied for a solid 25.50 points this week against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Boyd just isn't seeing that many looks since Tee Higgins came back from injury.
Over the last five games, Boyd has a mere 14% target share and 12% air yards share. This passing game runs through Higgins (24% target share over those five games) and Ja'Marr Chase (26%), and Boyd is left with scraps.
That's resulted in Boyd putting up more than 5.9 FanDuel points just once in that five-game span.
And while this may be hard to believe after what the Kansas City Chiefs did to Vegas a week ago, the Raiders' pass defense has been pretty good this year, giving up the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per game to receivers (24.9).
Boyd is a stay-away for me.