Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 25+ FDP% | Boom/ Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $8,800 | 23.3 | 2.65 | 17.4 | 29.1 | 42.3% | 1.76 |
| Dak Prescott | $8,200 | 20.5 | 2.50 | 15.6 | 25.7 | 28.2% | 1.40 |
| Derek Carr | $7,400 | 17.2 | 2.32 | 12.4 | 21.8 | 13.0% | 0.86 |
| Andy Dalton | $7,200 | 15.0 | 2.09 | 10.0 | 20.2 | 8.3% | 0.56 |
| Jared Goff | $6,700 | 12.7 | 1.89 | 7.9 | 17.6 | 4.4% | 0.38 |
| Trevor Siemian | $7,000 | 12.5 | 1.79 | 7.9 | 17.2 | 3.4% | 0.29 |
| Taysom Hill | $7,000 | 3.7 | 0.53 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0% | 0.01 |
| Player | Slate Leader |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 41.4% |
| Dak Prescott | 28.3% |
| Derek Carr | 12.7% |
| Andy Dalton | 8.6% |
| Jared Goff | 5.2% |
| Trevor Siemian | 3.8% |
| Taysom Hill | 0.0% |
Running Back
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 20+ FDP% | Boom/ Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | $8,000 | 16.7 | 2.08 | 10.6 | 22.5 | 35.4% | 1.73 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,400 | 16.2 | 1.92 | 10.5 | 22.2 | 34.0% | 1.40 |
| David Montgomery | $7,500 | 15.2 | 2.02 | 10.3 | 20.7 | 28.1% | 1.72 |
| Josh Jacobs | $6,700 | 12.0 | 1.79 | 7.0 | 17.1 | 14.3% | 1.06 |
| Mark Ingram* | $6,600 | 11.7 | 1.77 | 7.1 | 16.3 | 12.5% | 1.02 |
| Tony Pollard | $5,900 | 9.4 | 1.59 | 4.8 | 13.9 | 5.6% | 0.77 |
| Tony Jones Jr.* | $4,800 | 9.0 | 1.88 | 4.8 | 13.6 | 4.9% | 1.23 |
| Jamaal Williams | $5,200 | 7.5 | 1.43 | 3.1 | 11.8 | 0.9% | 0.63 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,600 | 6.5 | 1.16 | 2.3 | 10.4 | 1.3% | 0.33 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,800 | 6.2 | 1.06 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 0.7% | 0.30 |
| Matt Breida | $5,300 | 5.6 | 1.05 | 1.6 | 9.6 | 1.1% | 0.31 |
| Zack Moss | $5,700 | 5.2 | 0.92 | 1.3 | 9.2 | 0.6% | 0.21 |
| Khalil Herbert | $4,900 | 4.1 | 0.84 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 0.2% | 0.22 |
| Ty Montgomery | $4,700 | 2.5 | 0.53 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 0.1% | 0.11 |
| Dwayne Washington | $4,700 | 2.3 | 0.49 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 0.0% | 0.09 |
| Lamar Miller | $4,500 | 1.9 | 0.42 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.10 |
| Jermar Jefferson | $4,900 | 1.4 | 0.28 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 0.0% | 0.05 |
| Alec Ingold | $4,500 | 1.2 | 0.26 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 0.0% | 0.06 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | $4,700 | 0.9 | 0.19 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 0.0% | 0.05 |
| Jalen Richard | $4,700 | 0.9 | 0.19 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.05 |
| Alex Armah | $4,600 | 0.8 | 0.16 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 0.0% | 0.05 |
| Peyton Barber | $4,800 | 0.5 | 0.11 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 0.0% | 0.04 |
| Player | Slate Leader |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 26.8% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 25.6% |
| David Montgomery | 20.4% |
| Josh Jacobs | 8.8% |
| Mark Ingram | 6.8% |
| Tony Pollard | 4.5% |
| Tony Jones Jr. | 2.6% |
| Jamaal Williams | 1.1% |
| Kenyan Drake | 0.7% |
| Devin Singletary | 0.6% |
| Matt Breida | 1.0% |
| Zack Moss | 0.3% |
| Khalil Herbert | 0.3% |
| Ty Montgomery | 0.2% |
| Dwayne Washington | 0.1% |
| Lamar Miller | 0.1% |
| Jermar Jefferson | 0.1% |
| Alec Ingold | 0.0% |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 0.0% |
| Jalen Richard | 0.0% |
| Alex Armah | 0.0% |
| Peyton Barber | 0.0% |
Wide Receiver
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 20+ FDP% | Boom /Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | $8,300 | 13.4 | 1.62 | 8.7 | 18.7 | 18.7% | 0.77 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,500 | 13.4 | 2.06 | 9.0 | 17.9 | 15.7% | 1.78 |
| Darnell Mooney | $6,800 | 11.1 | 1.63 | 6.6 | 15.5 | 7.9% | 0.79 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $6,200 | 11.0 | 1.77 | 7.7 | 14.4 | 4.3% | 1.06 |
| Cedrick Wilson | $5,600 | 9.7 | 1.73 | 6.2 | 13.3 | 2.7% | 0.99 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,700 | 8.4 | 1.48 | 5.0 | 11.7 | 0.8% | 0.52 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $5,800 | 7.7 | 1.33 | 4.0 | 11.4 | 1.5% | 0.43 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $5,500 | 7.1 | 1.29 | 3.6 | 10.3 | 0.6% | 0.35 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | $5,900 | 6.9 | 1.17 | 3.3 | 10.1 | 0.2% | 0.24 |
| Bryan Edwards | $5,300 | 6.5 | 1.23 | 2.9 | 9.9 | 0.5% | 0.35 |
| Marquise Goodwin | $5,400 | 6.5 | 1.20 | 3.1 | 9.8 | 0.5% | 0.31 |
| Deonte Harris | $5,200 | 5.9 | 1.13 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 0.0% | 0.21 |
| Kalif Raymond | $5,100 | 5.8 | 1.14 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 0.5% | 0.31 |
| Marquez Callaway | $5,700 | 5.6 | 0.99 | 2.2 | 9.1 | 0.4% | 0.17 |
| Noah Brown | $4,700 | 5.6 | 1.19 | 2.7 | 8.5 | 0.1% | 0.28 |
| Josh Reynolds | $4,900 | 5.5 | 1.13 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 0.3% | 0.35 |
| Jakeem Grant | $4,600 | 4.3 | 0.93 | 1.5 | 7.3 | 0.0% | 0.19 |
| Zay Jones | $4,900 | 3.5 | 0.72 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 0.0% | 0.06 |
| Gabriel Davis | $4,800 | 3.4 | 0.70 | 0.4 | 6.2 | 0.0% | 0.10 |
| Damiere Byrd | $4,800 | 3.2 | 0.66 | 0.6 | 6.1 | 0.0% | 0.09 |
| DeSean Jackson | $5,000 | 3.0 | 0.59 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.03 |
| Malik Turner | $4,600 | 2.8 | 0.61 | 0.2 | 5.6 | 0.0% | 0.05 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | $4,600 | 1.7 | 0.37 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 0.0% | 0.01 |
| Kenny Stills | $4,600 | 1.5 | 0.32 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 0.0% | 0.01 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | $4,700 | 1.0 | 0.22 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 0.0% | 0.02 |
| Player | Slate Leader |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 27.2% |
| Michael Gallup | 23.4% |
| Darnell Mooney | 13.4% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 8.2% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 7.0% |
| Cole Beasley | 2.7% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5.0% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2.0% |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1.3% |
| Bryan Edwards | 2.2% |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2.2% |
| Deonte Harris | 0.4% |
| Kalif Raymond | 2.0% |
| Marquez Callaway | 0.8% |
| Noah Brown | 0.2% |
| Josh Reynolds | 1.2% |
| Jakeem Grant | 0.1% |
| Zay Jones | 0.1% |
| Gabriel Davis | 0.2% |
| Damiere Byrd | 0.3% |
| DeSean Jackson | 0.0% |
| Malik Turner | 0.1% |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 0.0% |
| Kenny Stills | 0.0% |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0.0% |
Tight End
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 15+ FDP% | Boom/ Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | $7,300 | 12.7 | 1.74 | 8.3 | 17.3 | 37.9% | 1.02 |
| Dalton Schultz | $6,000 | 10.8 | 1.80 | 7.2 | 14.5 | 22.4% | 1.14 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,100 | 8.8 | 1.45 | 4.8 | 12.8 | 13.7% | 0.56 |
| Dawson Knox | $5,900 | 8.1 | 1.38 | 4.6 | 11.6 | 10.4% | 0.43 |
| Cole Kmet | $5,000 | 7.9 | 1.58 | 4.0 | 11.9 | 8.6% | 0.78 |
| Jimmy Graham | $4,400 | 3.9 | 0.88 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 0.7% | 0.18 |
| Juwan Johnson | $4,500 | 3.5 | 0.78 | 0.3 | 6.8 | 0.6% | 0.17 |
| Foster Moreau | $4,700 | 2.8 | 0.60 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 0.4% | 0.07 |
| Nick Vannett | $4,200 | 2.6 | 0.63 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 0.1% | 0.08 |
| Sean McKeon | $4,300 | 1.6 | 0.37 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 0.0% | 0.05 |
| Brock Wright | $4,300 | 1.4 | 0.32 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.04 |
| Reggie Gilliam | $4,100 | 0.7 | 0.17 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 0.0% | 0.04 |
| Tommy Sweeney | $4,200 | 0.5 | 0.13 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 0.0% | 0.02 |
| Player | Slate Leader |
|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 40.0% |
| Dalton Schultz | 22.6% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 13.7% |
| Dawson Knox | 10.6% |
| Cole Kmet | 9.6% |
| Jimmy Graham | 0.8% |
| Juwan Johnson | 1.5% |
| Foster Moreau | 0.3% |
| Nick Vannett | 0.1% |
| Sean McKeon | 0.2% |
| Brock Wright | 0.3% |
| Reggie Gilliam | 0.1% |
| Tommy Sweeney | 0.1% |