Playing a non-division foe for three straight years is rare in NFL circles in the regular season. However, that is exactly what has happened between the Seattle Seahawks and the Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers have failed to use their home field to their advantage in all three contests, losing 16-12 in 2012, 12-7 in their 2013 season debut, and again in Week 8 of the 2014 season by a score of 13-9.
The 2014 game was determined by a nine-play, 80-yard drive that concluded with a game-winning touchdown pass from won 19-13, behind an 82-yard strike in overtime from Tom Brady to Troy Brown. Brady threw for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns in that matchup. The Dolphins' Jay Fiedler was picked off twice, while the Patriots held the Dolphins' strong running game to 97 yards.That game has a 91.38% similarity to this matchup, and the Patriots ended up going 14-2 and were the Super Bowl Champions. However, three of the next five matchups have an approximate 88% similarity, and the teams representing the Seahawks won three of those five games, including the second-most similar game. In this tilt, the Bills (representing the Seahawks) won their 2005 home-opener handily against the Texans -- 22-7 -- in a game that saw Houston net only 120 yards, turn the ball over 5 times, and allow 5 sacks, which is a scenario that the Seahawks' defense can certainly create at home.
Ultimately, then, what is the prediction for the game this Saturday night in Seattle, when it is projected to be 50 degrees with a 30% chance of precipitation and low winds?
Seahawks Win, Panthers Cover, Take the Over
The 10.5-point spread for this game apparently is substantial enough for our algorithms to say to take the Panthers and the points. The predicted score, according to our algorithms, is higher-scoring than the last three tilt but follows the theme of close games, with the Seahawks winning the game, 24.82-18.08. This gives the Panthers (+10.5) a 22.47% return on investment with a likelihood of 64.15%.
Our algorithms also have a 61.97% likelihood of the over hitting (at 39.5), which has a return on investment of 18.30%.