I'm one of the 10 or so weirdos on the planet who has a passion for D/STs. In truth, it's a difficult passion to explain to people. Fantasy football is already a niche within a niche, and defensive streaming adds a couple of layers of obscure on top of that. Indeed, even a certain chunk of the fantasy football community is vehemently opposed to defensive streaming.
Whether you share my passion for the D/ST position, or you're gritting your teeth and bearing with your league's decision to keep the spot in spite of your repeated requests to the contrary, I'm here to help.
A few housekeeping matters: lines are courtesy of NFL odds, and roster percentages and scores are from the Yahoo! fantasy platform. Assume that the listed order is the preferred order. I'll try for defenses on 40% or fewer of Yahoo rosters.
Miami Dolphins
vs. New York Giants
Spread: Dolphins -3.0
Roster Percentage: 43%
The Miami Dolphins have a middle-of-the-road defense in terms of Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) allowed per play at a 0.14 mark. Luckily, they take on the New York Giants and their weak 19.25 implied point total.
Daniel Jones has improved in terms of sack rate (5.7%) and interception rate (1.9%) on the season. However, their offensive line still is ceding a 28% pressure rate (fourth-highest in the NFL). "Danny Dimes" is under duress that could make ant quarterback unravel.
We project the water mammals as the sixth-best D/ST this week as three-point home favorites.
Kansas City Chiefs
vs. Denver Broncos
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
Roster Percentage: 27%
The Kansas City Chiefs have made some progress as a defensive unit. They now sit as the 21st-best unit in terms of Defensive NEP allowed per play. Uninspiring -- but a big upgrade from where they sat early in the year.
The real appeal here is the fact that they're a positive adjustment away from being double-digit favorites. Teddy Bridgewater takes sacks at a decent clip (7.5% sack rate) even if the interceptions haven't been happening as much this year (1.5% rate). Still, the fact that he'll need to play with his hair on fire to keep up with Patrick Mahomes increases the likelihood of both of those fantasy-friendly events happening.
Our forecast shows the warriors from Arrowhead rounding out the top-five defenses this week.
Las Vegas Raiders
vs. Washington Football Team
Spread: Raiders -3.0
Roster Percentage: 6%
This week's deep dive is the Las Vegas Raiders, who find themselves playing the illustrious Washington Football Team in Week 13.
Taylor Heinicke has been susceptible to an above-average amount of interceptions (2.7% rate) and sacks (6.3% rate), and the Raiders' defense can take advantage.
Las Vegas has a 32% pressure rate as a team -- tied for seventh-best in the NFL. As three-point home favorites with Washington entering on a short week, this really is a high-floor option for a deep dive. Heinicke and the Raiders' pass rate gives it a ceiling, too.
We've got the desert Marauders projected as thirteenth-best D/ST on the week.