Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned in Week 15
Perhaps more than anything, fantasy football is a game of adjustments. Season-long fantasy doesn't end at the draft, and smart managers learn to take the trends and data that each week of games offers and apply it to their roster decisions moving forward.
This weekly piece will look at trends from the previous slate of games and determine which trends in snaps, usage, and matchups are actionable moving forward. Let's dive in and look at some interesting pieces of information from Week 15.
The Eagles Do Not Have A Quarterback Problem
After a dominant 28.64-point performance in a must-win game against the rival Washington Football Team, perhaps Jalen Hurts can finally put to rest the thoughts that the Philadelphia Eagles need to consider a quarterback change with their cache of draft picks in 2022.
As the Eagles have shifted offensive philosophy, Hurts has only been asked to throw the ball 377 times this season (29 per game), which is 21st among all quarterbacks. But he ranks second among quarterbacks with 130 rush attempts and 733 rushing yards, and he ranks first with 10 rushing touchdowns, 3 more than the next-closest quarterback. He has a legitimate shot to break Cam Newton's record for 14 rushing touchdowns at the position.
No one ever talks about how the Baltimore Ravens might need to make a quarterback change, but it is eerie how similar the two dual-threats are. Both average 6.9 adjusted yards per pass. Jackson completes 64% of his passes, while Hurts is at 61%. Hurts has a better interception rate (2.4%) than Jackson (3.4%). And their passer ratings are almost identical: Jackson is at 87.0 and Hurts is at 85.9.
The Eagles are now back in the playoff picture, seeded sixth with three games to play. Their next two games are against the New York Giants and Washington again, so they could have a playoff spot locked up before they face the Dallas Cowboys again in Week 18.
Gabriel Davis Finally Delivers
Speaking of players who have caught fire lately, take a look at the list of the top wide receivers in half-PPR formats the last two weeks. The top five looks like a who's who of the elite receivers from this season: Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks, and Tyreek Hill. But then at number six, you see a pass-catcher who has been thrown into a major role due to injury and is absolutely thriving.
Gabriel Davis is averaging 17.9 points per game over the last two weeks and has seen 19 targets in his last three. Those 19 targets in three weeks were the same number he had in his previous seven weeks leading up to Week 13. With Emmanuel Sanders out with a knee injury and Davis now a major factor in one of the pass-happiest offenses in the league (10th at 61.2%), we may finally get to see a few weeks of what prognosticators thought we would have all year.
Davis was a late-round darling and Best Ball target in the offseason due to the fact that John Brown left town, Sanders was coming into his age-34 season, and Davis finished 2020 on an extremely high note, finishing as the WR28 in half-PPR leagues over the final two weeks.
Sanders ended up being a revelation for the first half of the season before injuries caught up to him and eventually forced him to miss time. Now Davis, a 22-year-old fourth-round pick out of USC, can showcase some of the efficiency metrics that make him so special.
According to Player Profiler, Davis ranks 10th among all wide receivers in target separation ability and 11th in fantasy points per target. He also possesses the 19th-best contested catch rate, proving he can be a reliable asset in the red zone for the playoff stretch.
Before waivers run on this late week, Davis is available in 80% of Yahoo leagues, but that number is sure to massively drop overnight. Davis has the tools and opportunity to help your squad make it to the championship round, so be sure to check his availability.
The Colts' Pass-Catchers Are Now Irrelevant
The Indianapolis Colts are in a fantastic position right now in terms of their standings and prospects to make the playoffs. They are now the fifth seed with an 8-6 record and are winners of five of their last six games, with a chance to steal the division from the Tennessee Titans in the final three weeks.
How they've arrived at this position is what is most interesting and relevant for fantasy managers.
We all know the Jonathan Taylor story. Even in full PPR leagues, Taylor is the clear RB1, about 35 points ahead of Austin Ekeler at number two and 80 points ahead of Leonard Fournette for third. But what Taylor's absolute dominance has done is make every Colts' pass-catcher absolutely irrelevant, including breakout candidate Michael Pittman Jr.
Consider this: in the Colts' last four wins, Carson Wentz completed 52 total passes for 501 yards and 3 touchdowns. In Week 1 alone, Dak Prescott completed 42 passes for 403 yards and 3 touchdowns. Only the Eagles have a lower percentage pass plays the last three weeks (43.35%), and that is just by fractions of a point over the Colts (43.68%).
Over the last five weeks, Pittman is the Colts' highest-ranked receiver in PPR points per game at 8.1. That ranks 55th among all wide receivers. T.Y. Hilton ranks 76th, and Zach Pascal is all the way down at 120th.
If you are a fantasy manager lucky enough to make it into your semifinal matchup this week, you certainly did it without the help of any Colts pass catchers. They simply cannot be trusted the rest of the season as Indianapolis rolls out an ultra-heavy rush approach (75% in Week 15). They belong on your bench for the fantasy playoffs.
