For the past six weeks, I've been a dog in a Christmas sweater: real uncomfy.

My process in daily fantasy football -- for the most part -- revolves around stacking games with high totals and tight spreads. I'm hunting shootouts because if that sucker lights up, everybody benefits.

We haven't had those recently. Totals have plunged, largely due to players being unavailable for one reason or another. It has made it tough to find spots where even one team is capable of putting up a big total, much less both in one game. So, if you're like me, you've had to basically toss out one key tenet of your process.

In Week 17, game stacks are back on the menu. We've got a couple of games that fit the high-total, tight-spread checklist, and the players in them don't come at outrageous salaries. In addition to those, we've got other good offenses in plus spots.

In other words, we won't be hurting either for stacks or one-off plays this week. And, whew, buddy, does it feel good.

We're going to start off this week's perusal of the slate with those potential shootouts and outline key usage notes going into them. Then we'll dive into other situations impacting the main slate and outline how we should view the affected players.

The Fluttering Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals are one of the teams in a shootout spot as they prepare to tango with the Dallas Cowboys. The total's up at 51.5 with the Cowboys favored by 6, so it's right in my wheelhouse.

We just have to decide if the Cardinals' offense is too broken for us to care.

The Cardinals enter this week on a 3-game losing streak, having scored 22, 12, and 16 points, respectively. All three games were indoors, two were at home, and one was against the Detroit Lions. This should not have been a bad stretch for the Cardinals.

You could easily point to the loss of DeAndre Hopkins as Hopkins has missed the past two games. That's certainly a portion of it. But they will be getting one key component back in Week 17.

Center Rodney Hudson had missed the past two games due to COVID-19. If you watched the Cardinals last Saturday, you know how big of an absence that was. It's one that's reflected in the data.

Hudson has been on the field for 341 drop backs this year and off it for 205, a decent sample in both splits. As you can see in the numbers via Next-Gen Stats, they've been a much better offense with him. CPOE is completion percentage over expectation, and EPA/DB is the team's expected points added on a per-drop back basis.

Hudson doesn't grade out well over at Pro Football Focus, so you may be tempted to write this off as variance. But with how critical centers are in setting up protections and more, this is a key re-addition.

As a result, Kyler Murray should be near the top of our lists for DFS this week. As discussed in last year's look at roster rates in the FanDuel Sunday Million, the public tends to under-roster quarterbacks who are slight underdogs. Add that in with Murray's recent struggles, and he's not going to be as popular as he should be.

It's also easier to stack Murray now that Hopkins is out of the picture, trimming the target tree significantly. We're now seeing both Christian Kirk and Zach Ertz get a ton of looks.

The Cardinals have played two games without Hopkins. Here's the target distribution in those with a "deep" target being at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

The minimum target total for either Ertz or Kirk in the two games is nine, and it's coming with high-leverage work to boot. Both are priorities at their respective positions, whether with Murray or as a standalone play.

The other standout option on this team could be Chase Edmonds. James Conner has been labeled a game-time decision by Kliff Kingsbury after having missed Week 16. With Conner sidelined, Edmonds played 92.2% of the snaps and turned 16 carries and 9 targets into 127 yards from scrimmage. Edmonds also had four of seven team red-zone opportunities. If Conner sits again, Edmonds is one of the top plays on the slate at any position.

Tyron Smith's Return

On the other side, the Cowboys already seem to have kicked their early-December lull after having hung 56 on Washington this past week. They did that even without left tackle Tyron Smith, who is expected to return this week.

As with Hudson on the Cardinals, this is a boost to the offense.

Here's the same chart as above with Hudson except showing the Cowboys with and without Smith.

In the 9 games Smith has played at least half the snaps, the Cowboys have averaged 32.4 points per game, hitting 35 or more 4 times. In the 6 games he has failed to hit that mark, they've been held to 21 or fewer points 4 times. They've still had big showings (the 56 points on Sunday were without him, as were their 43 points against the Atlanta Falcons), but this is a boon for the offense.

The biggest winner of this is Dak Prescott, whose salary is just $7,400 on FanDuel. He's at home, in a dome, with all of his pass-catchers and key linemen healthy. You can make a strong argument that both of the top quarterbacks on the slate are in this game.

The stacking situation with Prescott is more muddy. That doesn't mean it's bad; it just means we're dealing with some lower floors.

We're up to a three-game sample on the Cowboys since all three receivers have returned to a full allotment of snaps. Things have been spread out in that span.

This has resulted in all Cowboys pass-catchers maxing out at 85 yards receiving in any individual game in this stretch. That is a concern on a slate where we'll need upside.

Although that means each player's floor is rough, it doesn't mean they can't access a ceiling. The Cowboys won 2 of the games in that stretch by at least 15 points, and they were up, 24-0, at the half in the other. If they get a full four competitive quarters here, the passing yardage will increase, and everybody will benefit.

As such, this is a spot to take stabs, and you can justify doing so with any of the four guys above, including Dalton Schultz. Michael Gallup has the most appeal as a standalone play because of his low salary ($5,800), CeeDee Lamb is likely still the guy with the biggest blow-up potential, and Amari Cooper got a bump this past week after mild complaints about his usage. It's far less clear than it is with Arizona, but we should still play some wack-a-mole and hope we hit it right.

Another Absence for CEH

We've already seen how the Kansas City Chiefs play things this year when Clyde Edwards-Helaire is sidelined. With Edwards-Helaire likely to sit again this week, we have to decide if we should expect that past usage to carry over.

In five games without CEH earlier in the year, Darrel Williams' role was more than enough for us to consider him in DFS. He averaged 95.4 yards from scrimmage per game, helping him top 22 FanDuel points twice. At $6,200, we'll happily take that.

The mild complication is that Derrick Gore has emerged recently. Although most of it has come in garbage time, Gore has popped some big plays, potentially earning a larger piece of the pie in the second CEH absence.

One plus here is that -- at least through last week -- Gore hadn't yet emerged from mop-up duty. In the first three quarters, Williams out-snapped Gore, 26-9. Gore did make some splash plays early, but it was still Williams who was largely on the field. As such, we should likely assume that Williams will continue to operate as the lead back. It's just an assumption now whereas it was a foregone conclusion previously.

It does help that the matchup is right. The Cincinnati Bengals let up a 23.6% target share to running backs, the fourth-highest mark in the league, according to numberFire's JJ Zachariason. There's a bit extra juice in each snap for Williams this week. It leads to his being a core-play consideration even with Gore looming.

The other beneficiary from the Bengals' defensive play style is Travis Kelce. The Bengals have recently let up huge performances to both George Kittle and Mark Andrews, and Kelce is clearly in their same tier. Here are the Chiefs' target shares in games Kelce has played since the bye.

When stacking with Patrick Mahomes, the optimal partner will almost always be Tyreek Hill due to his absurd ceiling. At least for this week, we can tilt the scales more toward Kelce than we typically would. Hill is still obviously a key piece in stacking a potential shootout, but Kelce and Williams both get a boost here due to the matchup.

As for the Bengals, we can play things pretty straight on their side with all of the key pieces healthy. Doing so means both Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase are standouts.

In a vacuum, you'd likely want to take the $600 discount on Higgins ($7,000) from Chase ($7,600). However, that's likely the route many will take this week, especially with Higgins' having just gone bananas last week. This makes Chase a hyper-intriguing tournament pivot while Higgins is still the preferred option for cash-game exposure.

As for Joe Mixon, you can make a strong case that he's the best option among the second-tier running backs. He's averaging more yards per game in his most relevant sample than anybody in his range, and his 42.9% red-zone share is tied for the tops. Put that in one of the top two games of the week, and you get a guy who is fully worth his $8,500 salary.

Carson Wentz's Status

As of this writing, we don't know whether Carson Wentz will be able to play Sunday for the Indianapolis Colts. His status plays a big role in how we view Jonathan Taylor, so let's run through the factors at play.

The earliest Wentz can be cleared from the COVID-19 list is Sunday morning. Head coach Frank Reich has said that if Wentz is cleared, he will start. So, there's still a shot he's at the helm.

If he is, Taylor is well worth his salary. In 10 games since his snap rate increased, Taylor has averaged 143.8 yards from scrimmage per game while garnering 58.9% of the red-zone opportunities. You'll fork over $10,000 for that every day.

If Wentz can't go, we have to lower Taylor's outlook significantly. His salary is based on playing in an offense that ranks fourth in schedule-adjusted efficiency (in large part thanks to Taylor's play). If you put in Sam Ehlinger over Wentz, the team's efficiency will go down, and they'll generate fewer red-zone trips. Taylor would still get gobs of volume, but his floor and upside both shift downward.

As such, we could still justify Taylor. But he would no longer be a priority for cash games, and we'd have to pedal back exposure significantly for tournaments.

Planning for Trey Lance

There's still a chance that Jimmy Garoppolo is able to play through his thumb injury this week. But all signs currently point to it being the Trey Lance show.

Lance's starting would effectively force us to toss out everything we know about this offense.

We do have a one-game sample on Lance as the starter. It's worth noting that game took place in Week 5 while George Kittle was out. So not only has Lance had 2.5 months of practice since then, but he's gaining one of the most valuable non-quarterbacks in football, as well. So, things could be much different this time around.

But in that game, the San Francisco 49ers -- predictably -- were even more run-heavy than usual. Their early-down first-half pass rate was 40.9%, down from 50.0% in games that Garoppolo has started. In other words, we can expect their passing volume to decrease about 20%.

The efficiency also dipped with Lance at -0.22 EPA per drop back, down from Garoppolo's mark of 0.12. Again, we should expect that to improve with more practice time and Kittle back, but it's reasonable to assume passing efficiency will decrease.

So, we're likely to get fewer attempts with less juice in the throws that we do get. That puts a big dent in the appeal of Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk and keeps them from being priorities on the slate.

That doesn't mean we have to miss out on the fun, though. We can still consider both Lance and Elijah Mitchell.

In that debut, Lance ran 16 times for 89 yards. The points he got from rushing yardage alone were more than you get from two passing touchdowns on FanDuel. He didn't pay off for DFS that day, but this is where the addition of Kittle and the extra practice time provide a major lift. If he pairs that rushing with improved passing -- something we can bank on against the Houston Texans -- his path to a 20-point game is very clear. The ceiling should he hit paydirt is much higher than that.

Week 17 is a great slate at quarterback thanks to the shootouts and other good quarterbacks in plus matchups. Even with that, Lance deserves long consideration and is in the top five or six at the position. He's only a $1,000 discount from Prescott, but Lance still must be considered if he starts.

As for Mitchell, he returned to practice Wednesday, potentially setting up a return this week. In games Mitchell has played, he has averaged 98.3 yards from scrimmage per game. He has topped 130 twice and 160 once, and he has gotten sprinkled in as a pass-catcher recently. With the high-salaried running backs outside of Taylor and Mixon having just mediocre appeal, Mitchell -- in one of the best matchups you can imagine -- would belong in our player pool if he gets cleared.

Gauging Cam Akers' Involvement

With Darrell Henderson going on injured reserve this week, it seems likely that Sony Michel continues to be featured by the Los Angeles Rams. There's just one complicating factor involved.

Seeing Cam Akers back out there half a year after he tore his Achilles' would be a delight. We just have to decide how much it'd alter Michel's outlook.

Those words from Sean McVay make it seem as though Akers is trending toward playing. He could be. But other quotes from McVay this week seem to indicate that even if Akers is active, he won't carry a heavy load.

On Wednesday, McVay also said, "I have no idea when we're going to get him back or if," and "He's doing his own stuff on the side and looking good and all that stuff," according to Pro Football Talk. That doesn't refute what McVay said above about Akers' potentially playing; it just lowers expectations should he play significantly.

As such, we can likely still treat Michel as being the clear top option here. In 4 games as the lead back, Michel has averaged 114.5 yards from scrimmage per game while commanding 44.2% of the red-zone opportunities. Even in a matchup with a tough Baltimore Ravens rush defense, you'll take that all day, especially at $7,100. Michel is one of the top backs on the slate.

Using Michel certainly doesn't bar you from access to the passing game against a secondary that is down plenty of key pieces. Here's the target breakdown in five games with Odell Beckham playing a full snap share.

There's a reason that Cooper Kupp's salary is $10,200, and he's well worth it. Beckham also grades out well at $6,500 while Jefferson is more of a tournament pivot at $6,000. Either way, the Rams are a team we'll want to dig into heavily in this spot.

The Ravens With Tyler Huntley

The practice reports on Lamar Jackson to open Week 17 have been far from enthusiastic. It likely means we should plan around another start by Tyler Huntley, who came off the COVID-19 list on Wednesday.

Huntley has started two games and played the bulk of the snaps in another. It's a large enough sample to check it out. And as well as Huntley has played, he has still been a downgrade from Jackson.

Not only is Huntley less efficient than Jackson, but he's not as aggressive with an aDOT 2.6 yards lower than Jackson's. This has had the biggest impact on Marquise Brown.

Although Brown has averaged 10.2 targets per game over his past 6, he hasn't had more than 55 receiving yards in any of them. Huntley started one and came on relief in another while Josh Johnson started last week. The early-season version of Jackson was helping Brown cook; none of these guys have duplicated that recently

That makes Brown a tough option to justify, especially in a decent $6,000 range at receiver. It also hurts Mark Andrews.

From a volume perspective, Andrews is the top tight end. In 8 games since the bye, his lowest target total is 8, and he has averaged 10.1 per game in that span. And he has absolutely cashed in with 115-plus yards in 3 straight.

But now he comes tied to a salary of $8,700, meaning there's a massive opportunity cost tied to him. We also have tasty alternatives in Kelce, Ertz, and Rob Gronkowski, all of whom are on much better offenses than Andrews'.

Andrews has earned that lofty salary. He's unreal and can pay off even without elite quarterback play. But when we've got such great options at the position for once, I'm okay backing off of Andrews this week and hoping his run of destruction takes a one-game pause.

Mike Evans' Potential Return

In addition to the potential shootouts this week, we've got high-powered offenses facing lower-tier defenses. We can expect them to thrash and put up some big point totals, pushing for upside even without a shootout.

Arguably the biggest option in this mold is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus the New York Jets. And the Bucs may be getting some reinforcements in the form of Mike Evans.

Evans missed Week 16 due to a hamstring injury and was later placed on the COVID-19 list. However, Evans was able to practice Thursday, positioning him to potentially return after just one game on the sidelines.

If Evans does return, it'd lead to a combo we haven't seen yet this year: Evans and Antonio Brown active while Chris Godwin is sidelined. Thus, we don't have a relevant sample to look at here. We can at least make some educated guesses, though.

In the games Brown has played this year, his target share is at 24.0%. In Evans' healthy games, he's at 17.8% but with gobs of high-leverage work. Gronkowksi's target share in his full games is 17.6%.

Because all of those samples include lots of overlap with Godwin, we should likely bump all of them up a bit. Doing so allows you to understand why Brown ($8,500), Evans ($7,700), and Gronk ($6,700) would all be worth their salaries.

We run into issues here if the Bucs are able to throttle back a bunch due to a lopsided score. They have still had plenty of volume this year in previous blowouts, but the New York Jets can be a special kind of bad, and we're getting closer to the point where the Bucs may have an eye toward the playoffs.

That concern is why we don't need to flood our lineups with as much Brown, Evans, and Gronk as we can tolerate. If Evans were to sit, the equation would change, and Brown and Gronk would likely grade out well compared to most guys in their salary range. But if there's one more (large) mouth to feed, the urgency goes down. We could also be more enthused about Evans and Gronk if Brown were to sit after he missed Thursday's practice due to an ankle injury.

The vibes around Ronald Jones are similar, though for a different reason. In his first game without Leonard Fournette, Jones did get good volume with 20 carries and 3 targets. He also, though, lost impactful work to Ke'Shawn Vaughn and played just 51.6% of the snaps, and that came in a similar script to what we could expect this week. Vaughn's long touchdown run doesn't help Jones' volume projection, either, on the chances they decide to up Vaughn's role.

The combination of the matchup with the volume means we can go to Jones in tournaments, especially if the public overlooks him. The downsides in his projection, though, mean we should rank him below Michel and David Montgomery in the low $7,000 range, and other potential value backs grade out above him, too. Jones is an option and worth exposure, but he's not a priority.

The Bills in Blowouts

With the Bucs, we have a lot of guesswork around how they'll handle things. With the Buffalo Bills, we know what to expect in a potential blowout.

That's because all nine of the Bills' wins this year have been by two-plus scores. They're a wild team. Entering a game where they're 14.5.-point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons, we'll take it.

Based on those nine blowouts, one thing is clear: we don't need to worry about Josh Allen as a heavy favorite. In those nine games, Allen has averaged 27.3 FanDuel points per game, scoring 30-plus 3 times and 35-plus twice. Upside is the one thing you worry about if a team wins by a huge margin; that's not an issue with Allen.

It is with the pass-catchers, though. In those 9 games, only 4 times has a skill player scored 20-plus FanDuel points; that feat was accomplished by four different wide receivers. Woof.

If we lower the threshold to 15-plus FanDuel points, skill players have done that 17 times in these 9 games. Five of those instances were by running backs, which bodes well for Devin Singletary (more on him in a second). Three were by Dawson Knox, and you'd take 15 points out of your tight end at $6,200. Those are the pluses.

That means in 9 games, a receiver has scored 15 FanDuel points 9 times. One of them is likely to hit 15 FanDuel points, and we've got about a 50-50 shot that they get to 20. That may seem like a lot, but it's pretty underwhelming.

This could lead to an altered approach to stacking Allen this week. Instead of doing the default and stacking him with Stefon Diggs, you could instead pivot to Singletary or Knox, two guys who aren't impacted as much by decreased passing volume. Then you could use the open receiver slots in your lineup to get game stacks of the potential back-and-forth affairs elsewhere.

One thing that could change this is Emmanuel Sanders' status. Sanders sat out practice Thursday, putting him in limbo for Week 17. If he were to sit, it'd narrow the target tree a bit for Diggs and Gabriel Davis, making them more appealing as stacking partners for Allen. If not, Diggs will still be a quality stacking option, but the Singletary or Knox route gains appeal.

Singletary is in play as a standalone option, too. We've got a three-game sample on him operating as the team's clear lead back. He has averaged 12.7 carries and 4.7 targets, turning that into 87.7 yards from scrimmage per game. That can be enough in such a plus spot at $6,000. Singletary has obvious paths to failure, but his workload is good enough for us to get there, whether with Allen or as a standalone play.

The Eagles' Backfield Without Sanders

As of now, we know that Miles Sanders will sit in Week 17 due to a broken hand. The status of Jordan Howard will dictate whether we can pivot to anyone else.

Howard is dealing with a stinger, and it's unknown if he'll be able to go. Head coach Nick Sirianni has expressed optimism that Howard will be able to play despite missing significant time with a stinger two years ago. If Howard does play, it'll be tough to find value here.

We've got a three-game sample on the Philadelphia Eagles with Howard and Boston Scott healthy while Sanders sat. Here's the workload distribution in that sample.

The efficiency has been great, but the two have cannibalized each other. Howard would be the preferred option due to his work in the red zone, but it'd be hard for either to burn us for not using them.

If Howard can't go, things change. Back in Week 12, Howard was out, and Sanders missed most of the second half due to injury. Scott took advantage with 15 carries, 3 targets, and a touchdown, and that was even with Sanders playing the first half. The volume and efficiency here would likely be good enough to justify using Scott at $6,000.

The Bears' Quarterback Situation

Justin Fields seems to be trending toward playing this week after practicing on both Wednesday and Thursday. The fun thing about the Chicago Bears, though, is that it doesn't matter who plays quarterback; we should use David Montgomery no matter what.

Montgomery's passing-game usage has spiked the past five games as he has averaged 6.8 targets per game. That's great for a guy at $7,200 who has also averaged 17.4 carries per game in that span.

It's even better because that five-game stretch has included starts by Fields, Andy Dalton, and Nick Foles. Regardless of the signal-caller, Montgomery has been featured.

The Bears are in a plus spot here facing the New York Giants' 23rd-ranked rush defense and favored by 5.5 at home. That means we can put Montgomery in our core whether it's Fields, Dalton, or Foles under center.

AJ Brown's Massive Workload

After a huge return in Week 16, A.J. Brown sat out practice Thursday due to a calf injury. It sounds now as if that was maintenance-related.

If it's serious and Brown does sit, it massively ups the appeal in the Miami Dolphins' defense at $3,600. If Brown plays, he's a cash-game target.

Brown got 16 targets in his return, a 53.3% target share. With Julio Jones banged up and currently sidelined due to COVID-19, it'd be hard to expect anything lower than a 30% share for Brown here. If you get that for $7,500, you take it in a cash game and run regardless of how bad the game is.

That bad game environment would give you wiggle room to deviate from Brown in tournaments, specifically pivoting to players like Chase, Lamb, and Higgins in the same tier. A low-scoring sludge lowers the odds that Brown hangs a 30-burger on us, something we're more likely to get out of a shootout. He'd still be in play for tournaments; we'd just have more leeway to pivot elsewhere whereas he's harder to avoid in cash games.

The Patriots' Return to a Three-Man Committee

With the New England Patriots favored by 16.5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, we'd typically want to check out the backfield. The Patriots are likely to run it a bunch here with high levels of efficiency, something we always want to seek out.

It's just going to be a mess of a situation.

The team activated Rhamondre Stevenson off of the COVID-19 list this week, meaning all three of him, Damien Harris, and Brandon Bolden are healthy. That returns us to the same setup we saw in Weeks 9, 11, and 12, and nobody pulled away.

In those three games, no Patriots backs had more than 15 carries. Neither Harris nor Stevenson had more than two targets. If you're getting a max of 15 carries and 2 targets out of your running back -- especially if their salary is $7,400 like Harris' -- you need an outlier efficiency game for them to pay off. That could happen here, but it's not a profitable bet to make long-term.

If one of these pieces were out, it'd be a different discussion. When Harris and Stevenson have played without the other, they've had clear paths to upside. But together, things are spread out enough where we're best off looking elsewhere even in an elite situation.

Alvin Kamara With Mark Ingram

With Taysom Hill back this week, the biggest anchor on Alvin Kamara's Week 16 production (the quarterback play) has been lifted. But he's still got one more lurking.

Its name is Mark Ingram.

Kamara has played four games with Ingram this year. In those four games, he has averaged just 67.5 yards from scrimmage. And this isn't isolated to just the Ian Book game. Kamara also had just 31 yards in Week 15. Granted, that was against the run-stuffing Bucs, but this isn't a one-game thing. Kamara has had 76 or fewer yards in 3 of the 4 games with Ingram. That ain't great at $9,200.

It's worth noting that Ingram was limited in practice Thursday with a knee issue, and the team did sign Josh Adams to the practice squad. If Ingram sits, Kamara's salary becomes a lot easier to justify. But if both are healthy, we've likely got better options elsewhere at running back.

D'Andre Swift's Return

With full practice sessions on both Wednesday and Thursday, D'Andre Swift is in line to make his first start since Thanksgiving. That's a boon for us as football watchers.

Unfortunately for us and for Swift, his return may come with Tim Boyle at quarterback.

Jared Goff has missed practice due to a knee injury to open the week, putting him on the wrong side of questionable. Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond are both on the COVID-19 list, too, meaning the offense is down some key contributors. It's tough to expect them to move the ball efficiently.

We shouldn't have many concerns around Swift's workload after the time off. It's just the offense here that sucks all the fun out. We've got better options right above Swift (Mitchell) and below (Michel and Montgomery), allowing us to avoid what will likely be a doggy-doo offense.