We get an NFC North clash on Sunday night as the Green Bay Packers host the Minnesota Vikings.
On NFL odds, the Packers are 13.5-point favorites over Vikings in a game with a 42.5-point total. That makes the implied score 28.00-14.50 in favor of Green Bay.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
MVP Candidates
Our model rates Aaron Rodgers ($17,000 on FanDuel) and Davante Adams ($14,500) as the slate's premier plays, projecting them for 20.2 and 18.0 FanDuel points, respectively. No other player is projected for more than 14.6.
In the first meeting this season, Rodgers torched the Vikngs for 33.50 FanDuel points via 385 passing yards and 4 tuds. I'm not sure he can get to that type of ceiling in this game due to Kirk Cousins' absence, which makes a shootout unlikely. Still, Rodgers is obviously a top-shelf MVP play. Minny has permitted the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers (19.0).
With Rodgers likely to be the slate's most popular multiplier, Adams is where I'll land for most of my lineups. He made 7 grabs for 115 yards and a pair of scores at Minnesota earlier this year. The Vikes have surrendered the most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (34.8). He should feast.
Dalvin Cook ($14,000) is a fun MVP option who shouldn't see nearly as much MVP love as Rodgers and Adams do. With Cousins out, the Vikings will probably run it a bunch for as long as they can keep the game competitive. Cook had 115 total yards and a touchdown in the earlier clash with Green Bay. He's logged touch counts of 28 and 30 over his last two games. Yes, please. Our model pegs Cook for 14.2 FanDuel points.
Flex Breakdown
Sean Mannion ($5,000) is expected to start for Cousins. A starting quarterback at $5,000 is almost always going to be a free square in single-game DFS. Our algorithm projects Mannion for 12.1 FanDuel points.
With that said, I think there's an argument for at least thinking about fading Mannion. He has only 74 career pass attempts, recording three picks and no touchdowns. The matchup is brutal, too, as Green Bay ranks as the fourth-best pass D, per our metrics. He could turn in a complete dud.
Normally Justin Jefferson ($13,500) would be worth a shout in the MVP section, and while I suppose you could make a case for him even sans Cousins, Jefferson is better suited as a flex play with the Vikings' implied total at a measly 14.50.
Adam Thielen will be sidelined, so Jefferson should get plenty of looks. With Thielen getting hurt early at the Detroit Lions back in Week 13, we have a sample of nearly three full games of this offense without Thielen. In those games, Jefferson averaged 13 targets per outing while scoring a touchdown in each game. We project him for 13.2 FanDuel points.
On the Green Bay side, Aaron Jones ($12,500) and A.J. Dillon ($10,500) make sense in a game in which the Packers figure to be leading. While the two are splitting snaps pretty evenly since Jones came back from injury, more opportunities have gone to Jones, who has 17 and 15 touches the past two games. Dillon owns touch counts of 12 and 8 in that span.
Our projections are really into Jones, forecasting him for 14.6 FanDuel points, while Dillon's projection sits at 10.1. A way to be unique is to roll with both and bank on a lopsided Pack win where the tuddies go to the ground game in what looks like a very cold-weather clash.
Allen Lazard ($10,000) is over-salaried as a result of his nice game last week when Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,000) was out. Valdes-Scantling is back, and even before factoring in the $2,000 difference in salary, I prefer MVS to Lazard. Valdes-Scantling's big-play prowess is great for single-game slates. We rate MVS as the slate's fourth-best point-per-dollar choice.
Kicking for the favorite in a game that's expected to be a low-scoring affair, Mason Crosby ($9,500) is worth a look. Our projections have him scoring 8.6 FanDuel points. Just be wary of the cold temperatures.