As we head into the final week of the 2021 NFL regular season, a new favorite to win the Super Bowl has emerged, according to the latest odds over at NFL odds.
The Green Bay Packers' victory over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night, coupled with results elsewhere, has seen the Packers move to the top of the list at the start of Week 18.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | nF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | +380 | 20.8% | 18.2% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | 16.7% | 14.3% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +750 | 11.8% | 12.5% |
| Buffalo Bills | +750 | 11.8% | 10.1% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +950 | 9.5% | 9.8% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1200 | 7.7% | 5.8% |
| Tennessee Titans | +1200 | 7.7% | 11.0% |
| New England Patriots | +1700 | 5.6% | 6.0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +1700 | 5.6% | 5.4% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2000 | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +2100 | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +3400 | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +4500 | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +5000 | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +34000 | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +55000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Last week's favorites, the Kansas City Chiefs, lost to the explosive Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 and saw their title odds move out to +500. Their odds according to our metrics also took a tumble. Last week, our numbers had the Chiefs with a 19.1% chance of winning their second title in three seasons. Heading into the regular-season finale, these odds have fallen to 14.3%.
The Bengals, on the other hand, saw their odds rise dramatically after dealing with the Chiefs. On the back of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase ripping apart KC through the air, the Bengals are available at +2000. They've moved ahead of the Indianapolis Colts, who dropped their last game to the Las Vegas Raiders, with the Colts now at +2100.
The Raiders currently face the fourth-longest odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, at +1000. Only the New Orleans Saints, Baltimore Ravens, and Pittsburgh Steelers are bigger outsiders than the Raiders (among teams listed with odds).
The value selection at this stage appears to be the Tennessee Titans. Despite Tennessee trailing six teams in the betting odds, our metrics give them an 11.0% chance of winning it all -- boosted by the Titans being a win over the Houston Texans away from clinching the first-round bye that comes with being the AFC's top seed. They are our fourth favorites.