When the NFL opened up the season on a Thursday night in early September, perhaps it knew that the teams playing in the game -- the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers -- might be meeting again a few months later in the NFC Championship game.
The Seahawks won that game handily, by a score of 36-16, behind Rodgers is not afraid to take shots at Sherman. This would at least open up the other half of the field for the Packers' passing game.
When the Packers Have the Ball
According to our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, Rodgers and the Packers were good. In fact, in terms of Adjusted Passing NEP -- which is adjusted for schedule strength -- Green Bay was the best passing team in the NFL this year. In simple terms, the Green Bay passing offense added 164.93 points for their team during the regular season -- more than 10 points per game better relative to an average team.
They certainly didn't get that distinction by lacking creativity, which may be exactly what they need to do against the Seahawks to be successful this week.
In light of how good the Simon's coverage. While starting right cornerback indicate. The success of this group against the Packers' 15th-ranked Adjusted Passing NEP defense will be a key to the game one way or another.
Quarterback Splits: Double-Check or Double-Take?
One of the most unique aspects of this matchup is that both Rodgers and Wilson from a statistics perspective, would prefer this game to be at Lambeau Field. The splits for Rodgers on the road and Wilson at home are significantly worse than when Rodgers is at Lambeau and Wilson is on the road (with the exception of Wilson's record):
| Quarterback | Location | Win/Loss | Comp | Att | Pass Yards | Avg | Touchdowns | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodgers | Road | 4-4 | 180 | 280 | 2,047 | 7.31 | 13 | 5 |
| Wilson | Home | 7-1 | 130 | 213 | 1,544 | 7.25 | 6 | 6 |
| Quarterback | Location | Win/Loss | Comp | Att | Pass Yards | Avg | Touchdowns | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodgers | Home | 8-0 | 161 | 240 | 2,334 | 9.73 | 25 | 0 |
| Wilson | Road | 5-3 | 155 | 239 | 1,931 | 8.08 | 14 | 1 |
The narrative seems to be that, at home, Wilson is more of a game manager who seems to have a hard time getting settled into a rhythm until the second half. To that end, at home, he is a quarterback who relies on Lynch and his defense to win games and the Seahawks went 7-1 at home behind that formula this season. As for Rodgers, he plays well in both scenarios, but he makes mistakes every now and then on the road and lacks the explosiveness he has at home, evidenced by his yards per attempt average.