As soon as the Super Bowl concludes, it's time to look forward to next season, and that's what I'm about to do.
Super Bowl LVII champion odds are already posted at NFL odds.
| Super Bowl LVII Odds | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds | Super Bowl LVII Odds | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +700 | Buffalo Bills | +700 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1200 | Dallas Cowboys | +1200 |
| Green Bay Packers | +1300 | San Francisco 49ers | +1500 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2100 | Baltimore Ravens | +2100 |
| Denver Broncos | +2200 | Los Angeles Chargers | +2400 |
| Tennessee Titans | +2400 | Arizona Cardinals | +2400 |
| Cleveland Browns | +2400 | Indianapolis Colts | +2400 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +2600 | New England Patriots | +2800 |
| New Orleans Saints | +3000 | Minnesota Vikings | +3300 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +3300 | Washington Commanders | +3300 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +3300 | Carolina Panthers | +3600 |
| Miami Dolphins | +3600 | Las Vegas Raiders | +5500 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +6000 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +7000 |
| Chicago Bears | +7500 | Detroit Lions | +10000 |
| New York Giants | +10000 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +12000 |
| New York Jets | +15000 | Houston Texans | +18000 |
Which teams -- based on historical trends -- should we consider early on?
Past Super Bowl Winner Trends
The offseason can and does change a lot about team composition, but overall, teams are rarely indistinguishable year-over-year -- especially Super Bowl contenders.
So, here's a quick look at how each of the Super Bowl winners since the 2013 season have fared the year prior to their championship (according to our Net Expected Points [NEP] metric and nERD metric, which you can read more about in our Matthew Stafford's Los Angeles Rams and Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the average offensive rank for next year's champions is 4.9 with only one outside the top four.
But let's use that top-11 nERD cutoff (I'll stretch it to 12 for a nicer number and to include a team we should probably like a little bit).
Assuming the nERD rank trend continues, these teams would be in the mix next season. (Asterisks indicate some level of quarterback uncertainty.)
| Super Bowl "Contenders" | Super Bowl Odds | Offense Rank | Defense Rank | Pass Offense Rank | Rush Offense Rank | Pass Defense Rank | Rush Defense Rank | nERD Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | +700 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Buccaneers* | +2600 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 2 |
| Cowboys | +1200 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 21 | 3 |
| Cardinals* | +2400 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Patriots | +2800 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 5 |
| Chiefs | +700 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 20 | 6 |
| Packers* | +1300 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 30 | 7 |
| Rams | +1200 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 7 | 7 |
| 49ers* | +1500 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| Colts* | +2400 | 9 | 17 | 15 | 1 | 22 | 13 | 10 |
| Saints* | +3000 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| Bengals | +2100 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 22 | 21 | 12 | 12 |
You can see why I threw in the 12th-ranked team, the Cincinnati Bengals. They were also the worst adjusted offense (13th) other than the New Orleans Saints (22nd) in the top-12 in nERD
While there are no hard cutoffs we should get hung up on, it's pretty evident that a top-12 offense is a key to consistent success (barring a quarterback change) and that a top-12 defense helps.
These eight teams from the above list featured a top-half offense and defense: Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Cincinnati Bengals.
As for some quarterback notes:
- The Bucs have a looming question to answer with Brady's retirement (for now).
- Things aren't peachy with Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.
- The Packers will do what they can to retain Aaron Rodgers.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is likely on the way out of San Francisco.
- Indianapolis is likely to cut or trade Carson Wentz.
- With head coach Sean Payton retiring and a bad salary cap situation, the Saints are a hard sell.
These six teams aren't off-limits for futures bets, of course, but we have fewer question marks around some others.
That leads to a pack of six that seems to check a lot of the boxes for eventual champions: Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Kansas City, Los Angeles (Rams), and Cincinnati.