The NFL Draft draws near, and the next generation of NFL talent is about to find their first NFL team.
To add to the excitement, we have no real shortage of NFL Draft betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The one I'm keying on here is the landing spot for Pittsburgh Panthers quarterback Kenny Pickett. Here are the odds for each team to draft Pickett as well as the team distribution we see over the 100 most recent mock drafts for Pickett, according to NFL Mock Draft Database.
| Team to Draft Kenny Pickett | Past 100 Mocks | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 45.0% | +175 |
| New Orleans Saints | 18.0% | +200 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 19.0% | +350 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3.0% | +1200 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2.0% | +1600 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.0% | +2000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3.0% | +2000 |
| Detroit Lions | 6.0% | +2000 |
| Washington Commanders | 2.0% | +2000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.0% | +2500 |
| Houston Texans | 0.0% | +3000 |
The betting favorite -- and the analysts' favorite -- to draft Pickett is the Carolina Panthers, a quarterback-needy team that has been a highly touted fit for Pickett for months now. Nearly half of the recent mocks (45.0%) pair up Pickett and the Panthers. That bests the implied probability of 36.4% based on the +175 odds. It's a good pick.
But what if Carolina passes on Pickett? The second-ranked landing spot in frequency of mocks is -- narrowly -- the Pittsburgh Steelers, thus keeping Pickett in Pittsburgh. Of those 100 most recent mocks, 19 slate Pickett to the Steelers, though that 19.0% is a tick below the 22.2% implied probability of +350. Further, ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller suggests that the only quarterback the Steelers are sold on is Pickett. We could even see them try to move up to do so.
The same goes for Pickett to the New Orleans Saints (18.0% of mocks but 33.3% likely at +200).
Interestingly, the best value other than Carolina is actually Pickett to the Detroit Lions, which is mocked at a 6.0% rate, which is better than the 4.8% implied probability at +2000 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The safe route is seemingly Carolina (+175) or Pittsburgh (+350) based on the draft trends.