NFL Draft Betting: 4 Player Draft Positions Over/Unders to Target
The NFL Draft begins tonight, and the window to get in on the action is closing. That's why I wanted to take a close look at individual player over/unders in terms of draft position based on the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
These -- leveraging ESPN's Best Player Available rankings, NFL Mock Draft Database's Consensus Big Board rankings, and Grinding the Mocks' expected draft position -- are the best bets I can find among potential first-rounders.
Ahmad Gardner Under 4.5 (+182)
Cincinnati Bearcats cornerback Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner is listed at -250 to go over pick 4.5, so the heavy betting odds are on him to fall outside the top four.
However, a very common landing spot for Gardner is the New York Jets at pick four. In fact, over the past 100 mock drafts at NFL Mock Draft Database, Gardner is mocked fourth in 28.0% of them and inside the top five in 45.0% of them overall.
The +182 odds for Gardner to go under pick 4.5 imply a 35.5% chance to go before then, so we're getting some value here by using the wisdom of the crowds.
Gardner is also -200 to be the first cornerback selected.
Evan Neal Under 5.5 (+182)
Let's go with another early under at +182 odds. It's a very similar case for Evan Neal as it was for Gardner. The Alabama offensive tackle has a very frequent landing spot: the New York Giants at pick five. He's mocked there in 42.0% of the past 100 mocks and is listed inside the top six in 59.0% of the past 100 mocks.
Perhaps the main concern here is that Neal's odds to be the first offensive lineman are +250, trailing Ikem Okwonu (-160). The Giants could go Okwonu or target Neal at pick seven instead, but if Neal's their guy, they probably can't risk him lasting past the Carolina Panthers at six overall.
Drake London Over 10.5 (-132)
They weren't all going to be unders or plus-money bets, so this was inevitable.
USC wideout Drake London is listed as -132 to go after 10.5 in the draft and +100 to go under it, which is a little higher than I would've thought.
London's consensus big board rank is 12th overall, and his average expected draft position (per Grinding the Mocks) is 12.1.
My model, then, anticipates a 64.3% chance he goes later than 10.5. The 100 most recent mocks have him going after 10.5 at a 62.0% clip, as well.
Andrew Booth Jr. Under 29.5 (+152)
Clemson cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. isn't in the conversation as the first cornerback selected (I mean, I guess he technically is, but he's +5000 to be that). However, he's rated as a first-round talent a lot of places.
Booth Jr. has an expected draft position of 24.4, leaving a lot of wiggle room on the under -- while buying in at plus-money odds.
Booth Jr. has a big board rank of 24 and a peak rank of 9th overall. While it's not a lock he'll go inside pick 30, there are a lot of reasons to view him as a player who could easily hear his name called early on Thursday night.
