I was talking to a friend about fantasy football, and he was pissed. He drafted
2011
2012
2013
2014
You can make a strong argument that the most valuable players in fantasy football are, indeed, elite running backs. No position generally sees such a difference in fantasy points from the top guys to the bottom-tiered ones (value over replacement player, essentially), and MyFantasyLeague.com's average draft position data (12-team PPR leagues, real drafts occurring after August 1st), you begin to get a profile. You begin to see what a true elite running back looks like.
Of the 34 running backs, 16 were drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. Another 10 were selected in Rounds 2 and 3. Only three -- yes, that's three -- were selected beyond Round 10.
Round Drafted | Elite RB Instances | Percentage of Elite RBs |
---|---|---|
1st | 16 | 47.06% |
2nd | 4 | 11.76% |
3rd | 6 | 17.65% |
4th - 10th | 5 | 14.71% |
10th - Undrafted | 3 | 8.82% |
And interestingly enough, it seems like we've become more predictive when it comes to elite running back performance as well. The 2010 season is part of this data set, which was the year Arian Foster went bonkers and broke out. That season, he was drafted in the late-fifth round. That season, too, according to ADP data, four of the nine elite running backs were drafted in Round 4 and beyond.
What this means is that, over the last four years, only four of the 25 (16 percent) elite running backs in fantasy football have been drafted after the third round: Darren Sproles (2011), Knowshon Moreno (2013), Justin Forsett (2014), and Lamar Miller (2014).
Now, fantasy football is a weekly game, so yearly results only give us a high-level look at what's actually happening on the fake gridiron. Teams can certainly pick up a player like CJ Anderson, get seven usable, top-24 weeks from him, and win fantasy championships. But if you're looking for year-long success at the position without having to fight on the waiver wire for assets everyone wants, the truth is very clear: you have to spend money to make money.