Every NFL offseason, we dig into dozens of individual player situations and team changes in order to examine expectations for fantasy football purposes.
No matter which new stats we are granted over the offseason, a few -- very important -- constants can kickstart the process for us. Sure, a player may be due for regression or a bigger workload, but what if he's playing on an offense expected to be one of the worst in the league? Wouldn't it help for us to know just how often top-12 performers play on top-level offenses?
I think these are helpful questions that can help keep us centered on expectations for players moving forward. Of course, we'll never be dealing in absolutes, and there will be outliers and exceptions to the rule every single year.
That said, I wanted to foreground some of these high-level team trends and look at how often top-12, top-24, and top-36 results are tied to certain thresholds of team stats.
Here are some reference points using fantasy football results from 2012 through 2021 (a full 10 seasons that coincide with an uptick in passing efficiency in the NFL).
Running Backs
Here are how the teams for top-12, top-24, and top-36 running backs have ranked since 2012 in various overall stats. I'll post the tables and then summate.
Pass-to-Run-Ratio
| Pass-to- Run Ratio | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB1 to RB12 | 16.7% | 20.8% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
| RB13 to RB24 | 19.3% | 21.8% | 30.3% | 28.6% |
| RB25 to RB36 | 30.8% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 17.9% |
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (NEP)
| Adjusted Pass Efficiency (NEP) | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB1 to RB12 | 34.2% | 27.5% | 22.5% | 15.8% |
| RB13 to RB24 | 24.4% | 28.6% | 21.8% | 25.2% |
| RB25 to RB36 | 26.5% | 18.8% | 34.2% | 20.5% |
Adjusted Sack Rate
| Adjusted Sack Rate | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB1 to RB12 | 31.7% | 30.8% | 21.7% | 15.8% |
| RB13 to RB24 | 31.1% | 17.6% | 27.7% | 23.5% |
| RB25 to RB36 | 29.9% | 29.1% | 18.8% | 22.2% |
Rushing Plays
| Run Plays | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB1 to RB12 | 35.8% | 30.0% | 20.0% | 14.2% |
| RB13 to RB24 | 27.7% | 30.3% | 22.7% | 19.3% |
| RB25 to RB36 | 20.5% | 23.9% | 22.2% | 33.3% |
Adjusted Rushing Efficiency (NEP)
| Adjusted Rush Efficiency (NEP) | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB1 to RB12 | 42.5% | 30.8% | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| RB13 to RB24 | 20.2% | 27.7% | 31.9% | 20.2% |
| RB25 to RB36 | 18.8% | 26.5% | 18.8% | 35.9% |
Adjusted Line Yards
| Adjusted Line Yards | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB1 to RB12 | 46.7% | 26.7% | 12.5% | 14.2% |
| RB13 to RB24 | 20.2% | 31.1% | 27.7% | 21.0% |
| RB25 to RB36 | 25.6% | 20.5% | 29.1% | 24.8% |
Key Observations:
- 42.5% of RB1 seasons came while on teams with top-eight rushing efficiency metrics; 73.3% were on top-half teams.
- Just 6.7% came from bottom-eight rushing teams. (Efficiency matters.)
- Offensive line play obviously helps: 46.7% of RB1 seasons came while on teams with a top-eight mark in adjusted line yards.
- Just 15.8% of RB1 seasons came from bottom-eight overall offenses.
- 37.5% of RB1 seasons came from teams ranked bottom-eight in pass-to-run ratio.
- 61.7% of RB1 seasons came from top-half adjusted passing offenses; 62.5% were on top-half lines by adjusted sack rate. Team efficiency helps reach peak upside.
The Bottom Line: Volume alone isn't often enough -- at least in terms of being a top-12 option -- if the offensive situation for RBs is terrible.
Wide Receiver
Here are how the teams for top-12, top-24, and top-36 wide receivers have ranked since 2012 in various overall stats. I'll post the tables and then summate.
Pass-to-Run-Ratio
| Pass-to- Run Ratio | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 to WR12 | 35.0% | 25.8% | 26.7% | 12.5% |
| WR13 to WR24 | 24.4% | 30.3% | 24.4% | 21.0% |
| WR25 to WR36 | 28.8% | 26.3% | 21.2% | 23.7% |
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (NEP)
| Adjusted Offense (NEP) | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 to WR12 | 40.8% | 36.7% | 14.2% | 8.3% |
| WR13 to WR24 | 28.6% | 23.5% | 27.7% | 20.2% |
| WR25 to WR36 | 28.8% | 29.7% | 25.4% | 16.1% |
Passing Plays
| Pass Plays | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 to WR12 | 35.0% | 31.7% | 18.3% | 15.0% |
| WR13 to WR24 | 28.6% | 30.3% | 22.7% | 18.5% |
| WR25 to WR36 | 27.1% | 28.0% | 24.6% | 20.3% |
Adjusted Passing Efficiency (NEP)
| Adjusted Pass Efficiency (NEP) | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 to WR12 | 49.2% | 29.2% | 14.2% | 7.5% |
| WR13 to WR24 | 29.4% | 20.2% | 31.1% | 19.3% |
| WR25 to WR36 | 28.8% | 32.2% | 22.9% | 16.1% |
Adjusted Sack Rate
| Adjusted Sack Rate | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 to WR12 | 44.2% | 23.3% | 13.3% | 19.2% |
| WR13 to WR24 | 26.9% | 26.1% | 26.9% | 20.2% |
| WR25 to WR36 | 25.4% | 28.8% | 27.1% | 18.6% |
Rushing Plays
| Run Plays | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 to WR12 | 17.5% | 29.2% | 25.8% | 27.5% |
| WR13 to WR24 | 21.0% | 29.4% | 27.7% | 21.8% |
| WR25 to WR36 | 23.7% | 22.0% | 25.4% | 28.8% |
Adjusted Rushing Efficiency (NEP)
| Adjusted Rush Efficiency (NEP) | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 to WR12 | 30.8% | 20.8% | 26.7% | 21.7% |
| WR13 to WR24 | 17.6% | 26.1% | 30.3% | 26.1% |
| WR25 to WR36 | 26.3% | 28.0% | 18.6% | 27.1% |
Adjusted Line Yards
| Adjusted Line Yards | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 to WR12 | 31.7% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 13.3% |
| WR13 to WR24 | 25.2% | 17.6% | 30.3% | 26.9% |
| WR25 to WR36 | 30.5% | 21.2% | 18.6% | 29.7% |
Key Observations:
- A full 66.7% of WR1s played on teams in the top half of the NFL in passing plays.
- An astounding 77.5% of WR1 seasons came from teams in the top half of the NFL in overall efficiency.
- More directly: nearly half of all top-12 receiver seasons (49.2%) came from top-eight offenses.
- WR1s played on efficient rushing offenses (30.8% were on top-eight teams) with good run blocking (31.7%). Good teams generate fantasy points.
- Volume and efficiency help; if you have neither, be wary about a receiver's ceiling.
The Bottom Line: Passing volume definitely helps WRs, but peak seasons aren't often tied to inefficient passing offenses. That should break ties between Tier 2 and Tier 3 receivers come draft time.
Tight Ends
Here are how the teams for top-12, top-24, and top-36 tight ends have ranked since 2012 in various overall stats. I'll post the tables and then summate.
Pass-to-Run-Ratio
| Pass-to- Run Ratio | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE1 to TE12 | 31.9% | 25.2% | 17.6% | 25.2% |
| TE13 to TE24 | 25.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.2% |
| TE25 to TE36 | 21.8% | 18.5% | 28.6% | 31.1% |
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (NEP)
| Adjusted Offense (NEP) | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE1 to TE12 | 36.1% | 31.1% | 22.7% | 10.1% |
| TE13 to TE24 | 20.8% | 28.3% | 23.3% | 27.5% |
| TE25 to TE36 | 22.7% | 26.1% | 27.7% | 23.5% |
Passing Plays
| Pass Plays | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE1 to TE12 | 35.3% | 24.4% | 17.6% | 22.7% |
| TE13 to TE24 | 28.3% | 24.2% | 23.3% | 24.2% |
| TE25 to TE36 | 21.0% | 24.4% | 25.2% | 29.4% |
Adjusted Passing Efficiency (NEP)
| Adjusted Passi Efficiency (NEP) | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE1 to TE12 | 38.7% | 26.9% | 26.9% | 7.6% |
| TE13 to TE24 | 19.2% | 29.2% | 22.5% | 29.2% |
| TE25 to TE36 | 24.4% | 26.1% | 23.5% | 26.1% |
Adjusted Sack Rate
| Adjusted Sack Rate | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE1 to TE12 | 31.1% | 34.5% | 22.7% | 11.8% |
| TE13 to TE24 | 28.3% | 20.8% | 25.0% | 25.8% |
| TE25 to TE36 | 25.2% | 19.3% | 22.7% | 32.8% |
Rushing Plays
| Run Plays | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE1 to TE12 | 26.1% | 21.8% | 23.5% | 28.6% |
| TE13 to TE24 | 27.5% | 25.8% | 21.7% | 25.0% |
| TE25 to TE36 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 26.1% | 16.8% |
Adjusted Rushing Efficiency (NEP)
| Adjusted Rush Efficiency (NEP) | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE1 to TE12 | 25.2% | 25.2% | 24.4% | 25.2% |
| TE13 to TE24 | 26.7% | 27.5% | 21.7% | 24.2% |
| TE25 to TE36 | 30.3% | 22.7% | 26.9% | 20.2% |
Adjusted Line Yards
| Adjusted Line Yards | Top 8 | 9 to 16 | 17 to 24 | Bottom 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE1 to TE12 | 30.3% | 22.7% | 26.1% | 21.0% |
| TE13 to TE24 | 27.5% | 26.7% | 22.5% | 23.3% |
| TE25 to TE36 | 28.6% | 24.4% | 26.1% | 21.0% |
Key Observations:
- Just 10.1% of TE1s came from bottom-eight offenses; 36.1% were on top-eight teams, and 67.2% in total were on top-half teams.
- Worse yet, just 7.6% of TE1s were on bottom-eight passing offenses.
- Good lines seem to benefit TEs: 65.5% of TE1s played on teams in the top half in adjusted line yards; perhaps they aren't required to block as much.
- Passing volume helps TEs reach peaks; 35.3% of TE1s played on teams in the top eight in passing plays.
The Bottom Line: Elite TEs play on teams with very efficient offenses with good lines; passing volume helps, but efficiency matters more.