The goal for every coach at this time of year is to win the Lombardi trophy (even if your owner isn't too keen on trying). While that is the ultimate goal, being recognized as Coach of the Year (CoY) is also pretty nice.
This season I'm going to be digging into historical data on CoY winners to find information that can help us make better-informed wagers for one of the league's top honors.
The historical data on coaches comes from Pro Football Reference, and the win total data that will be used is from Sports Odds History.
Current Odds
Here are the favorites to win the NFL's 2022 Coach of the Year award. For the full odds, click here.
| Coach | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brandon Staley | +1400 |
| Brian Daboll | +1400 |
| Kevin O'Connell | +1600 |
| Doug Pederson | +1600 |
| Dan Campbell | +1600 |
| Nathaniel Hackett | +1600 |
| Mike McDaniel | +2000 |
| Frank Reich | +2000 |
| Matt Lafleur | +2000 |
| Nick Sirianni | +2000 |
| Kevin Stefanski | +2000 |
| Josh McDaniels | +2000 |
| Kyle Shanahan | +2000 |
What the Data Says
Team Success
Obviously, team success is the main thing to look at while diving into CoY trends, and we’ll start with something a bit obvious – the Coach of the Year must lead his team to the playoffs.
The last coach to win the award without making the playoffs was Jimmy Johnson in 1990, and he barely won with only 1.5 more votes than Art Shell. It also really helps to win your division; only four coaches have won the award while not taking their division since 1996.
So, you have to make the playoffs, maybe by winning your division, but if you really want to win CoY, then don’t win the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick was the last to do so in 2003.
Looking at division and Super Bowl odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, the Indianapolis Colts and coach Frank Reich are favored to win their division (-140) but are somewhat of a longshot to win the big game (+2200).
Second in this category is Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur, but they have much shorter +1200 Super Bowl odds.
Beat Your Projected Win Total
I don't think it’s much of a surprise to say that a CoY has to have his team win more games than the team’s line.
Only two winners since 2000 have had a projected win total of 10 or more: Andy Reid of the Philadelphia Eagles, in 2002 and Bill Belichick’s perfect regular season in 2007. No coach has won since This makes Matt LaFleur look even less likely to take the honors this year.
Since 2000, the median win total line for CoY heading into the season is 7.5. This points us to teams that are expected to win around half of their games -- or just under -- but then beat those expectations.
Other Nuggets to Consider
Here are two more pieces of information worth your time with this award:
1. Only twice since 2010 has a team been outside the top 10 in turnover differential with a CoY.
2. 9 of the last 11 winners have never received a vote for CoY prior to winning the award.
Overall, we are looking for a division winner (but not a Super Bowl winner) with a low turnover rate that takes the ball away. Further, we're looking for a middle-of-the-pack win total team that has a coach who hasn’t seen many votes yet.
This points to solid bets as Nick Sirianni (+2000) in Philadelphia, Frank Reich (+2000) in Indianapolis, and Brian Daboll (+1400) with the New York Giants.
Reich’s Colts and Sirianni’s Eagles finished 6th and 7th, respectively, in turnover percentage, and Buffalo (where Daboll was last year as Offensive Coordinator) ranked 14th.
Additionally, neither Sirianni nor Daboll have received CoY votes. Reich received only 8 votes (16% share) in 2018, so he’s borderline here but still roughly fits the criteria.
I’ll be checking in on CoY odds with updates and tidbits throughout the NFL's regular season, so stay tuned.