Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 25+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $8,500 | 22.5 | 2.64 | 16.5 | 27.7 | 37.9% | 1.68 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,700 | 22.3 | 2.48 | 16.2 | 27.1 | 34.7% | 1.30 |
| Jalen Hurts | $8,000 | 22.0 | 2.76 | 16.8 | 28.1 | 35.9% | 2.37 |
| Kyler Murray | $8,200 | 21.5 | 2.56 | 15.8 | 26.8 | 32.0% | 1.53 |
| Justin Herbert | $8,400 | 21.2 | 2.54 | 15.7 | 26.7 | 32.8% | 1.45 |
| Joe Burrow | $7,700 | 19.4 | 2.50 | 14.1 | 24.4 | 22.6% | 1.24 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,800 | 19.0 | 2.45 | 13.9 | 24.0 | 19.8% | 1.12 |
| Trey Lance | $7,500 | 18.5 | 2.41 | 13.2 | 24.1 | 21.5% | 1.19 |
| Derek Carr | $7,400 | 18.3 | 2.53 | 13.6 | 23.7 | 20.0% | 1.39 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $7,000 | 17.1 | 2.45 | 11.9 | 21.6 | 14.1% | 1.12 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,300 | 16.6 | 2.27 | 11.3 | 21.5 | 12.1% | 0.75 |
| Carson Wentz | $6,800 | 16.6 | 2.40 | 11.7 | 21.3 | 11.7% | 1.14 |
| Matt Ryan | $6,900 | 16.3 | 2.39 | 11.3 | 21.7 | 12.7% | 1.01 |
| Jameis Winston | $6,700 | 16.2 | 2.41 | 11.3 | 21.2 | 11.6% | 1.09 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,100 | 15.8 | 2.24 | 10.6 | 20.7 | 10.5% | 0.73 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,100 | 15.6 | 2.22 | 11.2 | 20.6 | 9.6% | 0.71 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $7,000 | 15.6 | 2.16 | 10.3 | 20.1 | 10.6% | 0.67 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | $6,400 | 15.0 | 2.36 | 9.6 | 19.7 | 8.7% | 0.91 |
| Justin Fields | $6,900 | 14.9 | 2.11 | 9.2 | 19.3 | 8.2% | 0.57 |
| Jared Goff | $6,800 | 14.7 | 2.13 | 9.4 | 19.3 | 6.5% | 0.61 |
| Mac Jones | $6,600 | 14.7 | 2.25 | 9.7 | 19.2 | 7.1% | 0.72 |
| Joe Flacco | $6,200 | 14.5 | 2.32 | 9.9 | 18.8 | 7.0% | 0.93 |
| Marcus Mariota | $6,500 | 14.5 | 2.22 | 9.6 | 19.4 | 7.9% | 0.74 |
| Davis Mills | $6,500 | 14.3 | 2.20 | 9.4 | 18.8 | 6.8% | 0.69 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $6,300 | 14.0 | 2.21 | 8.9 | 18.7 | 5.6% | 0.73 |
| Baker Mayfield | $6,600 | 13.7 | 2.11 | 9.2 | 18.7 | 6.8% | 0.59 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 20+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | $10,200 | 20.5 | 2.07 | 15.0 | 27.0 | 55.2% | 2.03 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,500 | 19.6 | 2.01 | 13.4 | 26.0 | 46.8% | 1.75 |
| Derrick Henry | $9,700 | 18.7 | 1.88 | 12.4 | 23.9 | 40.5% | 1.31 |
| Austin Ekeler | $9,400 | 18.1 | 1.90 | 12.9 | 24.3 | 39.6% | 1.46 |
| Joe Mixon | $8,300 | 16.4 | 2.01 | 10.8 | 21.6 | 32.5% | 1.65 |
| Alvin Kamara | $8,500 | 16.0 | 1.85 | 10.4 | 21.6 | 31.4% | 1.25 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,400 | 15.6 | 1.78 | 10.0 | 20.4 | 26.9% | 1.12 |
| D'Andre Swift | $7,600 | 15.3 | 1.97 | 9.9 | 20.4 | 26.7% | 1.56 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,400 | 15.2 | 2.06 | 9.4 | 20.9 | 28.2% | 1.65 |
| Najee Harris | $8,200 | 14.8 | 1.78 | 9.4 | 19.9 | 24.3% | 1.06 |
| Saquon Barkley | $6,800 | 14.0 | 2.02 | 8.8 | 19.2 | 20.8% | 1.57 |
| James Conner | $7,700 | 13.8 | 1.80 | 8.8 | 19.1 | 20.7% | 1.11 |
| Antonio Gibson | $6,800 | 13.5 | 2.02 | 8.6 | 18.3 | 19.0% | 1.54 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,800 | 13.0 | 1.67 | 8.1 | 18.0 | 18.8% | 0.81 |
| J.K. Dobbins | $6,900 | 12.3 | 1.79 | 7.7 | 17.2 | 15.2% | 1.11 |
| Chase Edmonds | $5,800 | 11.6 | 1.96 | 6.9 | 16.4 | 13.0% | 1.45 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,000 | 11.5 | 1.70 | 7.0 | 16.9 | 12.6% | 1.01 |
| Travis Etienne | $6,200 | 11.4 | 1.85 | 6.6 | 16.2 | 11.6% | 1.21 |
| David Montgomery | $6,600 | 11.3 | 1.75 | 6.9 | 15.9 | 10.4% | 1.03 |
| Dameon Pierce | $5,400 | 11.3 | 2.02 | 6.1 | 15.3 | 9.4% | 1.47 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $5,800 | 10.7 | 1.85 | 6.3 | 15.5 | 8.5% | 1.23 |
| Elijah Mitchell | $6,700 | 10.6 | 1.59 | 5.9 | 15.5 | 8.5% | 0.74 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $6,600 | 10.4 | 1.54 | 5.7 | 14.8 | 8.7% | 0.68 |
| Breece Hall | $6,400 | 10.4 | 1.63 | 5.6 | 15.2 | 9.1% | 0.84 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,500 | 9.4 | 1.42 | 4.8 | 13.9 | 5.7% | 0.56 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $5,600 | 9.4 | 1.65 | 5.2 | 13.7 | 4.8% | 0.85 |
| Damien Harris | $6,300 | 9.3 | 1.43 | 4.7 | 13.5 | 4.9% | 0.57 |
| A.J. Dillon | $6,100 | 9.2 | 1.46 | 4.8 | 13.5 | 6.4% | 0.61 |
| Michael Carter | $5,200 | 8.4 | 1.65 | 4.1 | 13.1 | 4.7% | 0.85 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,400 | 8.0 | 1.43 | 3.4 | 12.4 | 4.5% | 0.64 |
| James Robinson | $6,200 | 8.0 | 1.26 | 3.7 | 12.0 | 1.8% | 0.38 |
| Kareem Hunt | $6,300 | 7.9 | 1.24 | 3.6 | 12.0 | 2.5% | 0.35 |
| J.D. McKissic | $5,200 | 7.4 | 1.48 | 3.7 | 11.3 | 2.3% | 0.62 |
| Raheem Mostert | $5,500 | 6.9 | 1.23 | 2.7 | 10.9 | 2.2% | 0.42 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | $5,300 | 6.8 | 1.25 | 2.5 | 10.6 | 1.0% | 0.43 |
| Mike Davis | $5,600 | 6.3 | 1.11 | 1.8 | 10.1 | 1.1% | 0.29 |
| Mark Ingram | $5,500 | 6.3 | 1.14 | 2.1 | 10.1 | 0.8% | 0.33 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,100 | 6.2 | 1.21 | 2.3 | 10.3 | 1.6% | 0.43 |
| Alexander Mattison | $6,000 | 5.3 | 0.91 | 1.6 | 9.6 | 0.8% | 0.20 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $5,500 | 4.8 | 0.80 | 0.7 | 8.5 | 0.4% | 0.14 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $5,200 | 4.8 | 0.92 | 1.3 | 8.4 | 0.2% | 0.22 |
| Jamaal Williams | $5,700 | 4.6 | 0.78 | 0.7 | 8.2 | 0.1% | 0.15 |
| Khalil Herbert | $5,300 | 4.5 | 0.89 | 1.0 | 8.2 | 0.3% | 0.20 |
| Ameer Abdullah | $4,500 | 4.5 | 1.05 | 0.7 | 8.4 | 0.6% | 0.35 |
| Jeff Wilson | $5,500 | 4.3 | 0.83 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 0.2% | 0.14 |
| Tyler Allgeier | $4,800 | 4.1 | 0.97 | 0.5 | 8.3 | 0.1% | 0.26 |
| Damien Williams | $5,300 | 4.1 | 0.75 | 0.3 | 7.9 | 0.2% | 0.15 |
| Zamir White | $4,900 | 4.1 | 0.77 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 0.7% | 0.20 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,700 | 3.9 | 0.72 | 0.5 | 7.6 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Boston Scott | $4,900 | 3.9 | 0.80 | 0.1 | 7.8 | 0.0% | 0.21 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 17.5+ % | Boom /Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | $8,100 | 15.3 | 1.91 | 10.4 | 20.3 | 39.1% | 1.39 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $8,200 | 15.1 | 1.81 | 9.6 | 20.1 | 35.9% | 1.13 |
| Deebo Samuel | $8,400 | 14.2 | 1.69 | 10.6 | 17.5 | 25.0% | 0.77 |
| Davante Adams | $8,500 | 14.1 | 1.63 | 9.3 | 18.4 | 29.3% | 0.71 |
| Tyreek Hill | $7,700 | 13.4 | 1.77 | 8.8 | 18.5 | 29.3% | 1.08 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,400 | 12.8 | 1.71 | 8.9 | 16.2 | 19.2% | 0.93 |
| Marquise Brown | $6,900 | 12.4 | 1.75 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 23.1% | 1.03 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $7,200 | 12.1 | 1.70 | 7.8 | 15.9 | 17.9% | 0.82 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,600 | 11.7 | 1.76 | 6.3 | 16.6 | 21.7% | 1.01 |
| Mike Williams | $6,600 | 11.7 | 1.69 | 6.6 | 15.9 | 19.2% | 0.93 |
| A.J. Brown | $7,100 | 11.7 | 1.68 | 7.6 | 16.2 | 19.1% | 0.83 |
| Tee Higgins | $7,000 | 11.7 | 1.59 | 7.3 | 15.4 | 15.7% | 0.72 |
| Terry McLaurin | $7,000 | 11.2 | 1.61 | 7.0 | 15.6 | 16.8% | 0.70 |
| D.J. Moore | $6,400 | 11.2 | 1.70 | 5.7 | 15.6 | 17.6% | 0.96 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $6,500 | 11.2 | 1.70 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 13.5% | 0.96 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $6,800 | 11.0 | 1.55 | 7.2 | 14.5 | 10.3% | 0.65 |
| Michael Thomas | $6,200 | 11.0 | 1.75 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 12.9% | 1.05 |
| Rashod Bateman | $6,100 | 10.6 | 1.71 | 6.4 | 14.8 | 12.9% | 0.96 |
| Diontae Johnson | $6,700 | 10.6 | 1.60 | 6.7 | 14.6 | 12.4% | 0.72 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,300 | 10.4 | 1.66 | 7.3 | 13.4 | 7.7% | 0.77 |
| Darnell Mooney | $6,200 | 10.1 | 1.68 | 6.0 | 14.9 | 13.7% | 0.86 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,400 | 10.1 | 1.56 | 5.7 | 14.2 | 11.3% | 0.73 |
| Robert Woods | $5,600 | 10.0 | 1.81 | 6.6 | 13.7 | 7.9% | 1.15 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,800 | 9.9 | 1.65 | 4.8 | 14.3 | 12.1% | 0.88 |
| Elijah Moore | $6,000 | 9.7 | 1.58 | 5.2 | 14.1 | 11.5% | 0.75 |
| DeVonta Smith | $6,100 | 9.4 | 1.55 | 4.9 | 13.7 | 10.1% | 0.69 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,100 | 9.2 | 1.50 | 5.4 | 13.1 | 6.6% | 0.63 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,900 | 9.1 | 1.54 | 6.2 | 12.4 | 4.4% | 0.61 |
| Kadarius Toney | $5,300 | 9.0 | 1.76 | 5.6 | 12.8 | 5.7% | 1.03 |
| Drake London | $5,500 | 8.9 | 1.64 | 5.2 | 12.8 | 7.0% | 0.84 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,500 | 8.7 | 1.55 | 4.3 | 12.9 | 9.9% | 0.72 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $5,600 | 8.4 | 1.49 | 5.1 | 12.1 | 3.5% | 0.60 |
| Chase Claypool | $5,800 | 8.4 | 1.42 | 3.9 | 12.5 | 8.6% | 0.58 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $5,500 | 8.0 | 1.46 | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.6% | 0.60 |
| Randall Cobb | $5,100 | 8.0 | 1.58 | 5.2 | 10.9 | 1.5% | 0.70 |
| Chris Olave | $5,000 | 7.9 | 1.66 | 4.2 | 12.0 | 3.3% | 0.82 |
| Kenny Golladay | $5,600 | 7.7 | 1.36 | 2.8 | 11.9 | 5.5% | 0.52 |
| Garrett Wilson | $5,300 | 7.5 | 1.40 | 3.4 | 11.0 | 2.6% | 0.53 |
| D.J. Chark | $5,300 | 7.3 | 1.42 | 3.2 | 11.6 | 4.6% | 0.56 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,500 | 7.3 | 1.34 | 3.2 | 11.0 | 3.0% | 0.44 |
| Rondale Moore | $5,500 | 7.3 | 1.32 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 0.4% | 0.25 |
| A.J. Green | $5,700 | 7.3 | 1.27 | 3.2 | 11.0 | 3.6% | 0.39 |
| Sammy Watkins | $5,500 | 7.1 | 1.36 | 4.4 | 10.5 | 1.3% | 0.38 |
| Nico Collins | $5,200 | 7.1 | 1.36 | 3.8 | 10.6 | 3.0% | 0.50 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,700 | 6.9 | 1.23 | 4.3 | 10.3 | 1.2% | 0.30 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,700 | 6.7 | 1.21 | 3.5 | 10.6 | 1.7% | 0.32 |
| Jahan Dotson | $4,900 | 6.7 | 1.39 | 3.3 | 10.3 | 1.5% | 0.51 |
| Robbie Anderson | $5,300 | 6.6 | 1.25 | 2.7 | 10.0 | 2.2% | 0.34 |
| Mecole Hardman | $5,400 | 6.6 | 1.20 | 3.7 | 9.5 | 0.4% | 0.27 |
| George Pickens | $5,200 | 6.6 | 1.28 | 3.1 | 10.2 | 1.8% | 0.41 |
| Treylon Burks | $5,900 | 6.5 | 1.13 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 1.3% | 0.19 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,100 | 6.5 | 1.22 | 3.4 | 9.3 | 0.7% | 0.30 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $5,100 | 6.4 | 1.29 | 3.5 | 9.3 | 0.2% | 0.31 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | $4,700 | 6.3 | 1.34 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 1.8% | 0.47 |
| Skyy Moore | $4,600 | 6.3 | 1.42 | 3.4 | 9.8 | 0.7% | 0.55 |
| Parris Campbell | $5,200 | 6.3 | 1.19 | 3.4 | 9.3 | 0.2% | 0.28 |
| Jarvis Landry | $5,700 | 6.2 | 1.11 | 3.5 | 9.5 | 0.7% | 0.18 |
| Corey Davis | $5,400 | 6.2 | 1.14 | 2.8 | 10.0 | 2.7% | 0.32 |
| Sterling Shepard | $5,500 | 6.1 | 1.06 | 2.9 | 9.2 | 0.8% | 0.21 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 15+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $8,000 | 13.6 | 1.71 | 9.0 | 17.8 | 40.4% | 0.85 |
| Mark Andrews | $7,900 | 12.8 | 1.65 | 7.9 | 17.9 | 39.3% | 0.79 |
| Darren Waller | $7,000 | 11.2 | 1.58 | 6.9 | 15.0 | 25.3% | 0.66 |
| Kyle Pitts | $6,000 | 9.6 | 1.64 | 4.6 | 14.5 | 23.2% | 0.84 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,700 | 8.9 | 1.50 | 5.0 | 12.4 | 13.7% | 0.62 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,700 | 8.9 | 1.48 | 4.7 | 12.4 | 14.3% | 0.57 |
| Robert Tonyan | $5,100 | 7.2 | 1.36 | 3.8 | 10.9 | 6.8% | 0.52 |
| Cole Kmet | $5,000 | 7.1 | 1.42 | 3.5 | 11.0 | 9.7% | 0.58 |
| Hunter Henry | $5,400 | 7.0 | 1.28 | 3.4 | 10.2 | 6.5% | 0.35 |
| Gerald Everett | $5,200 | 6.9 | 1.36 | 3.8 | 10.3 | 4.7% | 0.43 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | $5,100 | 6.7 | 1.30 | 3.0 | 10.4 | 6.6% | 0.48 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,300 | 6.5 | 1.19 | 3.1 | 9.8 | 4.4% | 0.32 |
| David Njoku | $5,000 | 6.4 | 1.29 | 2.4 | 10.1 | 5.5% | 0.44 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,500 | 6.4 | 1.16 | 2.3 | 10.4 | 7.7% | 0.36 |
| Evan Engram | $4,900 | 6.2 | 1.26 | 2.8 | 9.7 | 5.0% | 0.41 |
| Austin Hooper | $4,900 | 6.0 | 1.17 | 2.7 | 9.5 | 3.5% | 0.36 |
| Logan Thomas | $5,500 | 5.9 | 1.11 | 2.8 | 9.5 | 3.7% | 0.27 |
| Zach Ertz | $5,600 | 5.7 | 1.02 | 2.3 | 9.0 | 4.2% | 0.21 |
| Brevin Jordan | $4,800 | 5.4 | 1.10 | 2.1 | 8.5 | 2.1% | 0.28 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | $4,800 | 5.3 | 1.15 | 2.3 | 8.9 | 2.6% | 0.34 |
| Hayden Hurst | $4,900 | 5.1 | 1.11 | 2.1 | 8.3 | 1.4% | 0.24 |
| Isaiah Likely | $4,100 | 4.1 | 1.04 | 1.1 | 7.2 | 0.7% | 0.27 |
| Tyler Conklin | $5,000 | 4.1 | 0.78 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 0.9% | 0.11 |
| Daniel Bellinger | $4,100 | 4.0 | 1.01 | 0.7 | 7.4 | 1.1% | 0.31 |
| Jonnu Smith | $4,700 | 3.8 | 0.82 | 0.9 | 6.7 | 1.1% | 0.12 |