If the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are correct, we'll see some scoring tonight between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys.
The total is 50.5 points (with -110 odds on the over and the under), and the spread of 2.5 points favors the visiting Buccaneers. That means a tight game, which can lead to a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair.
How does numberFire's algorithm see it playing out?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Over (50.5) - 1 Star out of 5
Cowboys Spread (+2.5) - 1 Star out of 5
Cowboys Moneyline (+120) - 1 Star out of 5
There is nothing more than a one-star lean on this matchup, according to our betting algorithm, so it's not the most appealing spot for huge betting value despite the potential fireworks.
Dallas, per our algorithm, is 55.4% likely to cover the 2.5-point spread at home, leading to an expected return of 5.8%. Since 2016, home underdogs of 1.5 to 3.0 points are 111-102-7 against the spread.
Notably, the model is into the Cowboys overall and gives them a 50.8% chance to get the win, outperforming their +120 moneyline, which implies a 45.5% win chance. That's the same win odds (45.5%) as historical home 'dogs of 1.5 to 3.0 since 2016.
These types of scripts with narrow home underdogs and high totals might be over-friendly. Games with a home underdog of 1.5 to 3.0 and a total of at least 48.5 are 35-25 on the over since 2016.
Based on the 25 most comparable games to this matchup in numberFire's database, things point to the over. Of the seven strongest predictors six of them hit the over.
Also, teams representing the Cowboys covered in five of the seven most comparable games.
Player Props to Target
Dak Prescott Under 262.5 Passing Yards (-110) - numberFire's model is projecting Prescott for 246.4 yards and will be without stud tackle Tyron Smith.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110) - The models here are buying into the reality that Elliott is the Cowboys' lead back and project him for 63.1 rushing yards in this matchup -- on 14.9 carries.
Mike Evans Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - Evans is projected for 74.0 yards on 5.4 receptions in this matchup.