When playing daily fantasy football, we should be matchup sensitive when rostering players. One star player can go from a great play to a horrible one based on his opponents and the specific individual matchup might play a huge role in that. Since we can play any player we want on a given slate, it makes sense to pick players in the best matchups. This will raise both their floor and their ceiling, and should lead to us having some winning lineups.
We are building a decent sample size of what matchups we want to target this season, so let's see which ones look ripe for picking on in Week 4.
Broncos' Passing Game vs. the Raiders' Pass Defense
It's safe to say that the Denver Broncos have been one of the most disappointing offenses in the league so far. With a new coach and new quarterback, they were supposed to take a step towards having an above-average passing game for the first time since the Peyton Manning days.
But it has been only three games, and a turnaround in the fourth game is possible.
This is a buy-low opportunity on the Broncos. Russell Wilson ($7,100) now has a lower salary than the likes of Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, and Marcus Mariota -- something we wouldn't have expected going into the season. His stacking partners are at modest salaries, as well. Courtland Sutton ($6,800) would be the obvious choice, since he has a 27.5% target share and a massive 47.2% of the team's air yards. Even with Russ struggling in the first three games, Sutton has been able to have decent outputs in fantasy without yet scoring a touchdown.
There are other pieces we can use in stacks with Russ. Jerry Jeudy ($6,500) was coming off an injury in Week 2 and got in just one limited practice last week, so his two catches on six targets in Week 3 perhaps can be explained away. He had a decent game in his lone healthy appearance of the season, so hopefully that can continue. Albert Okwuegbunam ($4,900) has been very quiet in the last two games, but he has run a route on 64.3% of drop backs. It's not the best, but tight end is such a wasteland that getting an athletic tight end for this salary as part of a stack is a viable route to go.
The Broncos will play their first division game of the season against the Las Vegas Raiders. The matchup with the Raiders is main the reason for optimism. Vegas' pass defense ranks 26th in the NFL. Last week, they rejuvenated a Tennessee Titans passing attack that looked bleak prior to that game.
We need to take advantage of teams in good matchups, even if the team we want to stack has been down in recent weeks. If Russ is ever going to cook this season, this is the spot for him to do it. It is unlikely the field will want to roster much of the Broncos' passing game after what we've seen this season, so this is an under-the-radar stack for tournaments.
Browns' Rushing Attack vs. the Falcons' Rush Defense
The Cleveland Browns have a clear game plan. They want to run the ball often and use their two stud running backs and solid offensive line to dominate games. So far, the plan has been very effective.
Cleveland's pass/run ratio is 0.84, which is the second-lowest in the league. This has paid off nicely for them, as they have the second-best rushing offense in the league, according to numberFire's metrics. It also has been fruitful for fantasy managers to roster two of their backs.
Sometimes, it can be hard to justify using Nick Chubb ($9,200) because he is a running back who splits carries and doesn't catch many passes. However, if you have rostered him this season, you have been rewarded, as he currently sits as the RB1 in half-PPR scoring.
It's not often that two running backs from the same team can be realistically used in DFS contests, but a case can be made for Kareem Hunt ($6,100) in large-field tournaments. He is currently the RB14 by FanDuel points per game, ahead of the likes of Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler. The running back position has been down overall this season, so Hunt is definitely an option this week.
The Browns will play on the road in a dome against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta has struggled against the run this season, allowing the fifth-most Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry. They've also allowed the fourth-best success rate on the ground to opponents.
Chubb has the highest salary at the running back position, and that may cause some sticker shock to fantasy players. This will likely keep his popularity down somewhat, but his ceiling remains high. Hunt has upside, as well, and can be had for just $6,100. He has the same amount of red-zone rushes as Chubb. Either way, rostering a Browns running back is fine play this week.
Jamaal Williams vs. the Seahawks' Rush Defense
The hype of being on Hard Knocks doesn't often carry over to the regular season, but it has for the Detroit Lions this season. They may be 1-2, but the Lions have played high-scoring, fantasy-friendly games. This week, they are comfortable favorites. That should lead to a big day for their fill-in running back.
Since Jamaal Williams ($7,400) came into the league, he has been a reliable backup who has been usable in fantasy when given the chance to start. He's already been productive this season even with D'Andre Swift active. He's seen double-digit carries in each of the three games, including 11 carries in the red zone. He's punched the ball into the end zone four times this season, which has him tied with Chubb for the most scores in the league.
Williams hasn't been a total zero in the pass game, either. He has five targets on 22 routes this season, for a 22.7% percent rate. That is not bad at all for a running back, and he may run more routes with Swift injured.
Williams gets a great matchup to continue his success. The Lions are at home against the Seattle Seahawks. This is a Seahawks team that just allowed Cordarrelle Patterson to run for 8.3 yards per carry last week. Overall, Seattle is 25th in rushing success rate.
Detroit has the third-highest implied team total on this slate, and when they are getting down near the goal line, we can expect them to use Williams again. He's a good option in all formats this week.
Michael Pittman vs. the Titans' Secondary
The Indianapolis Colts' passing game has not been anything to write home about so far this season. In fact, they rank 29th in passing efficiency by our numbers. It's why we don't necessarily want to target multiple options from their passing attack. But one wideout stands out as a good play.
The Colts looked lost in Week 2 when Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,500) missed the game. The offense was much better in Week 1 and Week 3 with him playing. In those two games, he's seen a 25.2% target share. He's turned that volume into 16.9 FanDuel points per game, and the matchup this week looks great for him.
Indianapolis plays the Tennessee Titans at home. The Titans are a weak pass defense and allowed big games to Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins in the past two weeks. They've permitted the second-most adjusted fantasy points per target to the wide receiver position.
If Pittman continues to get the targets that he's gotten, he can definitely do damage against this weak Titans secondary. Tennessee will be without Amani Hooker at safety and has Kristian Fulton listed as questionable.
Pittman was expected to be a breakout star at receiver position this season, and this is a chance for him to prove that he is an upper-tier wideout in this league. He makes for a great play in tournaments with the upside he has in this game.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.