Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 25+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $9,000 | 25.6 | 2.87 | 19.3 | 31.2 | 53.5% | 2.34 |
| Jalen Hurts | $8,600 | 24.1 | 2.81 | 18.0 | 30.4 | 47.4% | 1.90 |
| Tom Brady | $7,800 | 19.3 | 2.45 | 14.1 | 24.1 | 20.5% | 0.86 |
| Justin Herbert | $8,200 | 19.2 | 2.34 | 14.1 | 24.0 | 21.1% | 0.64 |
| Kyler Murray | $8,100 | 18.7 | 2.34 | 13.4 | 24.3 | 21.6% | 0.68 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,100 | 17.8 | 2.44 | 12.3 | 22.2 | 14.3% | 0.82 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $6,400 | 17.8 | 2.80 | 12.2 | 23.0 | 16.7% | 1.59 |
| Matthew Stafford | $7,400 | 17.4 | 2.36 | 12.7 | 22.1 | 15.5% | 0.70 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $7,600 | 17.2 | 2.32 | 12.6 | 22.8 | 15.8% | 0.69 |
| Andy Dalton | $6,500 | 16.2 | 2.55 | 11.6 | 21.3 | 11.6% | 1.06 |
| Geno Smith | $6,900 | 15.6 | 2.23 | 10.6 | 20.2 | 9.4% | 0.55 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,900 | 15.4 | 2.25 | 10.6 | 20.4 | 9.9% | 0.60 |
| Carson Wentz | $6,800 | 15.4 | 2.27 | 10.3 | 20.4 | 9.2% | 0.65 |
| Jared Goff | $8,000 | 15.4 | 1.89 | 10.3 | 20.5 | 9.4% | 0.20 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $6,700 | 15.2 | 2.25 | 10.2 | 20.1 | 8.0% | 0.63 |
| Bailey Zappe | $6,300 | 15.1 | 2.39 | 10.3 | 20.2 | 9.1% | 0.83 |
| Zach Wilson | $7,200 | 15.1 | 2.06 | 9.9 | 19.9 | 8.1% | 0.38 |
| Marcus Mariota | $6,800 | 15.1 | 2.20 | 10.1 | 20.3 | 8.9% | 0.58 |
| Justin Fields | $6,600 | 14.9 | 2.28 | 9.7 | 19.6 | 9.2% | 0.60 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,000 | 14.3 | 2.02 | 9.3 | 19.2 | 7.2% | 0.35 |
| Davis Mills | $6,400 | 14.1 | 2.21 | 9.3 | 19.3 | 8.1% | 0.60 |
| Cooper Rush | $6,500 | 13.8 | 2.18 | 9.8 | 18.9 | 7.6% | 0.52 |
| Kenny Pickett | $6,500 | 13.0 | 1.97 | 8.0 | 17.9 | 5.0% | 0.36 |
| Baker Mayfield | $6,400 | 12.0 | 1.81 | 7.2 | 16.5 | 2.9% | 0.26 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 20+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $8,700 | 16.9 | 1.93 | 11.1 | 22.6 | 35.1% | 1.52 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,900 | 16.8 | 1.86 | 11.7 | 22.1 | 32.7% | 1.42 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,300 | 16.3 | 2.18 | 10.4 | 21.4 | 31.8% | 2.31 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,800 | 16.2 | 2.15 | 11.3 | 22.2 | 34.0% | 2.31 |
| Austin Ekeler | $9,000 | 15.7 | 1.79 | 10.6 | 21.5 | 31.5% | 1.09 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,000 | 15.2 | 2.19 | 9.7 | 21.0 | 28.6% | 2.15 |
| Nick Chubb | $9,400 | 14.9 | 1.63 | 10.2 | 19.9 | 24.4% | 0.67 |
| Jeff Wilson | $6,500 | 13.4 | 2.13 | 8.4 | 19.0 | 20.7% | 1.96 |
| Jamaal Williams | $8,300 | 13.3 | 1.62 | 8.4 | 18.6 | 19.3% | 0.72 |
| Dameon Pierce | $7,500 | 13.1 | 1.75 | 8.4 | 18.6 | 20.0% | 1.09 |
| Breece Hall | $6,600 | 13.0 | 1.94 | 7.9 | 18.3 | 18.9% | 1.49 |
| James Robinson | $8,000 | 12.9 | 1.58 | 7.7 | 17.9 | 16.7% | 0.67 |
| Damien Harris | $7,200 | 12.7 | 1.76 | 8.1 | 17.4 | 16.3% | 1.08 |
| Miles Sanders | $7,600 | 12.4 | 1.68 | 7.7 | 17.4 | 15.6% | 0.77 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $6,000 | 12.1 | 1.95 | 7.3 | 17.0 | 15.1% | 1.62 |
| Devin Singletary | $6,000 | 11.7 | 1.99 | 6.5 | 16.9 | 13.2% | 1.41 |
| David Montgomery | $7,100 | 11.3 | 1.57 | 6.9 | 15.6 | 11.2% | 0.63 |
| James Conner | $6,700 | 11.2 | 1.70 | 6.7 | 15.7 | 10.0% | 0.88 |
| Najee Harris | $6,600 | 11.1 | 1.72 | 6.6 | 16.0 | 9.7% | 0.91 |
| Rashaad Penny | $6,900 | 11.0 | 1.60 | 6.3 | 15.5 | 9.6% | 0.67 |
| Raheem Mostert | $5,800 | 10.6 | 1.84 | 6.4 | 14.9 | 8.8% | 1.19 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $6,200 | 9.9 | 1.51 | 5.1 | 14.4 | 7.1% | 0.66 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,900 | 9.7 | 1.72 | 5.2 | 14.3 | 6.9% | 0.88 |
| Tyler Allgeier | $5,700 | 9.6 | 1.67 | 5.4 | 13.9 | 5.6% | 0.87 |
| Cam Akers | $6,100 | 9.3 | 1.45 | 4.7 | 13.6 | 5.4% | 0.58 |
| Antonio Gibson | $6,300 | 9.0 | 1.38 | 4.4 | 13.0 | 4.1% | 0.42 |
| Travis Etienne | $5,600 | 8.9 | 1.59 | 4.6 | 13.2 | 5.2% | 0.73 |
| Chase Edmonds | $5,700 | 8.8 | 1.64 | 4.3 | 13.6 | 5.6% | 0.78 |
| Tony Pollard | $5,700 | 8.4 | 1.45 | 3.8 | 12.6 | 3.7% | 0.56 |
| Darrell Henderson | $6,100 | 7.9 | 1.30 | 3.3 | 12.0 | 3.4% | 0.37 |
| Michael Carter | $5,500 | 7.6 | 1.30 | 3.3 | 11.3 | 1.5% | 0.44 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,100 | 7.5 | 1.43 | 3.0 | 11.9 | 2.7% | 0.59 |
| Khalil Herbert | $7,100 | 7.2 | 0.94 | 2.7 | 10.6 | 1.9% | 0.09 |
| J.D. McKissic | $5,100 | 7.0 | 1.33 | 2.5 | 11.2 | 1.8% | 0.49 |
| Brian Robinson | $5,500 | 6.6 | 1.29 | 2.9 | 11.0 | 0.8% | 0.40 |
| Mark Ingram | $6,000 | 6.6 | 1.12 | 2.6 | 10.9 | 1.3% | 0.22 |
| Rachaad White | $5,800 | 6.4 | 1.09 | 2.0 | 10.6 | 1.1% | 0.25 |
| Caleb Huntley | $5,600 | 6.2 | 1.08 | 2.1 | 10.5 | 0.6% | 0.26 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $5,000 | 5.7 | 1.14 | 1.3 | 9.6 | 1.4% | 0.32 |
| Kenneth Walker III | $5,300 | 5.5 | 0.97 | 1.6 | 9.2 | 0.7% | 0.24 |
| Alexander Mattison | $7,300 | 5.5 | 0.74 | 1.2 | 9.5 | 1.1% | 0.04 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 17.5+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | $9,500 | 19.2 | 1.99 | 13.7 | 24.2 | 56.5% | 2.09 |
| Justin Jefferson | $8,800 | 16.2 | 1.83 | 11.0 | 21.7 | 44.8% | 1.31 |
| Tyreek Hill | $8,400 | 15.9 | 1.89 | 10.9 | 20.5 | 42.0% | 1.49 |
| Deebo Samuel | $7,300 | 15.6 | 2.12 | 11.9 | 19.1 | 35.8% | 3.69 |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,600 | 15.5 | 1.84 | 11.2 | 20.6 | 39.3% | 1.37 |
| A.J. Brown | $8,000 | 15.2 | 1.99 | 10.0 | 21.5 | 41.8% | 1.50 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $7,700 | 13.8 | 1.79 | 9.7 | 17.6 | 25.6% | 1.07 |
| Mike Evans | $7,500 | 13.8 | 1.80 | 8.6 | 18.3 | 28.5% | 1.09 |
| Christian Kirk | $7,600 | 13.4 | 1.80 | 8.2 | 18.4 | 29.4% | 1.01 |
| Mike Williams | $7,400 | 13.2 | 1.69 | 8.1 | 17.4 | 24.7% | 0.90 |
| Marquise Brown | $7,800 | 13.0 | 1.65 | 8.3 | 18.0 | 27.3% | 0.83 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $8,200 | 12.9 | 1.59 | 9.5 | 16.6 | 20.5% | 0.52 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,200 | 12.8 | 1.78 | 7.6 | 17.6 | 26.2% | 1.02 |
| Chris Olave | $6,900 | 12.6 | 1.88 | 6.5 | 19.2 | 31.8% | 1.28 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $7,100 | 12.5 | 1.83 | 8.0 | 18.2 | 27.4% | 1.16 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,800 | 12.0 | 1.75 | 7.2 | 16.4 | 20.2% | 0.94 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,800 | 11.9 | 1.77 | 6.8 | 17.8 | 26.2% | 1.07 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,000 | 11.8 | 1.66 | 8.0 | 15.5 | 15.3% | 0.80 |
| DeVonta Smith | $6,600 | 11.3 | 1.73 | 6.1 | 15.9 | 18.6% | 0.86 |
| Drake London | $6,200 | 11.1 | 1.80 | 6.2 | 15.5 | 17.2% | 1.02 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,000 | 10.9 | 1.60 | 6.5 | 15.6 | 16.6% | 0.68 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,800 | 10.6 | 1.85 | 7.6 | 13.3 | 5.5% | 1.24 |
| Gabriel Davis | $6,000 | 10.1 | 1.69 | 6.1 | 14.8 | 15.1% | 0.99 |
| Diontae Johnson | $6,700 | 9.9 | 1.50 | 5.6 | 14.4 | 12.8% | 0.56 |
| Robert Woods | $5,900 | 9.8 | 1.65 | 5.8 | 13.3 | 8.7% | 0.72 |
| D.J. Moore | $5,900 | 9.8 | 1.64 | 5.5 | 14.0 | 10.6% | 0.80 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,500 | 9.6 | 1.47 | 5.3 | 14.2 | 11.2% | 0.56 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,300 | 9.6 | 1.51 | 5.8 | 13.4 | 6.9% | 0.55 |
| Garrett Wilson | $6,000 | 9.4 | 1.58 | 5.6 | 13.5 | 8.2% | 0.69 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $5,900 | 9.2 | 1.53 | 5.2 | 12.9 | 6.8% | 0.59 |
| Darnell Mooney | $5,800 | 8.7 | 1.52 | 4.6 | 12.6 | 9.2% | 0.57 |
| Zay Jones | $5,700 | 8.6 | 1.51 | 4.6 | 12.5 | 5.7% | 0.58 |
| Josh Reynolds | $6,400 | 8.3 | 1.36 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 8.7% | 0.40 |
| Josh Palmer | $5,500 | 8.3 | 1.54 | 5.0 | 11.5 | 3.2% | 0.50 |
| Elijah Moore | $5,300 | 7.6 | 1.51 | 3.8 | 11.7 | 4.4% | 0.56 |
| Rondale Moore | $5,200 | 7.4 | 1.48 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 0.3% | 0.35 |
| Corey Davis | $5,900 | 7.4 | 1.27 | 3.4 | 11.3 | 4.3% | 0.31 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $5,400 | 7.4 | 1.37 | 3.1 | 11.6 | 5.3% | 0.50 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,200 | 7.3 | 1.49 | 3.8 | 11.5 | 3.0% | 0.57 |
| George Pickens | $5,500 | 7.3 | 1.36 | 2.9 | 11.6 | 7.2% | 0.46 |
| Jarvis Landry | $5,500 | 7.2 | 1.30 | 3.7 | 10.3 | 2.2% | 0.26 |
| Allen Robinson | $5,700 | 7.2 | 1.32 | 3.4 | 11.1 | 3.2% | 0.32 |
| Nico Collins | $5,400 | 7.1 | 1.30 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 2.9% | 0.41 |
| Chase Claypool | $5,600 | 7.1 | 1.26 | 3.3 | 10.9 | 3.1% | 0.35 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $6,000 | 7.0 | 1.18 | 3.2 | 10.5 | 1.5% | 0.16 |
| Robbie Anderson | $5,500 | 7.0 | 1.26 | 3.1 | 10.7 | 3.2% | 0.36 |
| Khalil Shakir | $5,000 | 6.9 | 1.36 | 3.3 | 10.0 | 2.8% | 0.41 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,700 | 6.8 | 1.22 | 3.6 | 10.6 | 3.5% | 0.30 |
| Nelson Agholor | $5,500 | 6.6 | 1.18 | 2.6 | 10.4 | 2.9% | 0.31 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,000 | 6.5 | 1.05 | 2.9 | 9.9 | 1.6% | 0.16 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,300 | 6.2 | 1.08 | 2.6 | 9.3 | 0.6% | 0.21 |
| Kyle Philips | $5,200 | 5.9 | 1.11 | 3.0 | 9.2 | 0.9% | 0.19 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | $5,200 | 5.4 | 1.13 | 2.4 | 9.1 | 0.6% | 0.20 |
| Noah Brown | $5,400 | 5.4 | 0.96 | 1.9 | 8.4 | 1.2% | 0.15 |
| Marquez Callaway | $5,100 | 5.4 | 1.04 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 0.7% | 0.20 |
| K.J. Osborn | $5,200 | 5.3 | 0.94 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 0.3% | 0.12 |
| Russell Gage | $6,200 | 5.3 | 0.88 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 0.2% | 0.05 |
| DeAndre Carter | $5,100 | 5.2 | 0.96 | 1.7 | 7.9 | 0.5% | 0.13 |
| Chris Moore | $5,100 | 5.0 | 0.97 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.1% | 0.06 |
| Ben Skowronek | $5,300 | 5.0 | 0.96 | 2.1 | 8.1 | 0.3% | 0.11 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 15+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | $5,500 | 9.6 | 1.68 | 6.0 | 12.6 | 12.6% | 0.85 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $7,000 | 9.3 | 1.34 | 5.5 | 13.3 | 16.8% | 0.28 |
| Dallas Goedert | $6,100 | 9.0 | 1.42 | 5.2 | 12.9 | 14.7% | 0.49 |
| Zach Ertz | $5,900 | 8.8 | 1.46 | 5.2 | 12.7 | 14.6% | 0.53 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,800 | 7.8 | 1.36 | 4.3 | 11.6 | 9.7% | 0.39 |
| David Njoku | $5,700 | 7.7 | 1.37 | 4.4 | 11.5 | 8.8% | 0.38 |
| George Kittle | $6,500 | 7.5 | 1.12 | 3.6 | 11.0 | 8.2% | 0.16 |
| Gerald Everett | $6,300 | 7.3 | 1.15 | 3.8 | 10.8 | 5.5% | 0.12 |
| Tyler Conklin | $5,300 | 6.6 | 1.24 | 3.5 | 9.7 | 5.2% | 0.27 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | $4,700 | 6.3 | 1.35 | 3.2 | 9.9 | 3.6% | 0.45 |
| Dalton Schultz | $4,800 | 6.3 | 1.29 | 2.6 | 9.6 | 4.5% | 0.37 |
| Logan Thomas | $5,200 | 5.8 | 1.13 | 2.2 | 9.6 | 5.6% | 0.27 |
| Evan Engram | $4,900 | 5.6 | 1.19 | 2.8 | 9.0 | 2.6% | 0.28 |
| O.J. Howard | $4,500 | 5.5 | 1.16 | 1.7 | 8.7 | 2.2% | 0.31 |
| Cade Otton | $4,100 | 5.2 | 1.29 | 2.4 | 8.6 | 2.6% | 0.43 |
| Cole Kmet | $4,600 | 5.0 | 1.16 | 1.8 | 8.7 | 2.4% | 0.30 |
| Hunter Henry | $4,500 | 4.3 | 0.90 | 1.0 | 7.5 | 1.4% | 0.18 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,000 | 4.3 | 0.88 | 1.0 | 7.6 | 1.4% | 0.13 |
| Austin Hooper | $4,500 | 4.3 | 0.91 | 1.2 | 7.2 | 1.1% | 0.14 |
| Juwan Johnson | $4,700 | 4.0 | 0.82 | 0.5 | 7.1 | 1.4% | 0.13 |