When the schedule was released, tonight’s match between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers seemed like a must-watch game. But, so far this season, the Chargers have been inconsistent, and Denver has looked downright awful at times.
With all that said, a Chargers win would still put them in a tie for the AFC West lead.
A Broncos win would pull them within a game of the Chiefs and keep them on pace for a potential wild-card spot in the playoffs. Heading into tonight's game, numberFire puts the chances of Denver's chance of making the playoffs at 27.8%. That isn't where they'd hope to be, but it's not 0%.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metrics and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Rushing Offense NEP Rank | Passing Off NEP Rank | Rushing Defense NEP Rank | Passing Defense NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2.23 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 20 | 19 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.03 | 17 | 29 | 28 | 16 | 6 |
Strength meets strength tonight. The Chargers rank fourth in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, and they'll square off against Denver’s sixth-ranked defense in terms of Passing NEP per play allowed.
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model is giving the edge to the Chargers, having them winning outright 68.9% of the time, but they're only projected to cover the 4.5-point spread just 52.7% of the time.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, the odds to cover the spread are set at -106 (51.5% implied) with the Chargers' moneyline odds sitting at -205 (67.2%).
With our models favoring the Chargers spread and moneyline bets compared to the respective implied probabilities, each of those bets is a one-star wager.
The point total for this matchup sits at 45.5 points. numberFire’s model gives a 57.4% chance the over will hit, so against -112 odds (52.8% implied), taking the over is the best value on the board. That's a two-star bet.
Player and Team Prop Value Bets
The Chargers offense has started off fast this year, ranking seventh in first-half points scored. They have been particularly potent in the second quarter; they rank second in scoring, averaging 12.4 points.
The Broncos just don’t score much in any quarter, and in the second quarter, they average only 5.6 points. Take the Chargers' second-quarter spread (-0.5 at -114 odds).
Denver wideout Courtland Sutton has been the Broncos' leading target this year, netting a 28.0% target share, and Los Angeles' opponents this season have completed 67.2% of their passes.
Our player projection model puts him at 5.6 receptions. Even though the odds are pretty steep at -156, I think there’s still value in taking Sutton to go over his reception prop (4.5).
Final Notes
-- Los Angeles has covered in each of their last two Monday night games.
-- In this divisional matchup, the home team has won each of the last four games -- and covered the spread.
-- 75% of bets and 70% of the money on FanDuel Sportsbook are on the Chargers to cover. If you're a contrarian, Denver is a spot to fade the public.