In an inter-conference matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions, we have the Chicago Bears hitting the road to take on the New England Patriots. Chicago has lost their last three games while New England is coming off of two dominant wins over the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Rushing Offense NEP Rank | Passing Offense NEP Rank | Rushing Defense NEP Rank | Passing Defense NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 1.51 | 12 | 22 | 24 | 15 | 4 |
| Chicago Bears | -5.13 | 28 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 13 |
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model likes the Patriots to take care of business at home, having them winning outright 74.2% of the time.
But the edge when considering the rather large 8.5-point spread goes to the underdog Bears. The chances they cover, per the model, are 55.9%. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the odds for Chicago to cover the spread are set at -114 (53.3% implied probability) with the moneyline odds sitting at +320 (23.8% implied).
With our models thinking the Bears will keep it somewhat close, taking Chicago for either the spread or straight-up are both valued as one-star bets. The moneyline is the slightly better value.
The point total line for this matchup sits at 40.5 points, and numberFire’s model gives a 52.4% chance the over will hit. At -106 odds (51.5% implied) our model thinks there is a little bit more value in taking the over. That's another one-star wager.
Player Prop Value Bets
David Montgomery hasn't been very efficient this year -- or as a runner over his career (3.9 yards per carry) -- but he gets plenty of touches.
His total yardage line is 65.5, and our player projection model puts him well above that at 89.2 total yards, which is a number he has gone over three of the four games he has completed this season.
Let’s have some real fun and get in on kicker props. Bears kicker Cairo Santos has connected on all 12 of his kicks after a shaky Week 1 outing. He’s projected at 1.72 field goal attempts, and his point total is 5.5 at +106 odds.
Given the plus odds and the likelihood Chicago makes this a fairly close game, I like taking the over on Santos’ total kicking points line. No kicks have been missed against New England this year.
Final Notes
-- The Patriots have covered 14 of 23 games, dating back to the start of the 2021 season. They've covered four of six this season.
-- The under has hit in 14 of the Bears' last 23 games retroactive to the start of 2021.
-- At FanDuel Sportsbook, 75% of the spread money is on the Patriots, who are also getting 68% of the total tickets.