Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 25+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | $9,200 | 23.7 | 2.61 | 18.3 | 29.7 | 45.8% | 1.35 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $7,700 | 20.3 | 2.63 | 15.1 | 25.3 | 26.5% | 1.32 |
| Kyler Murray | $8,200 | 19.6 | 2.45 | 14.7 | 25.9 | 29.1% | 0.94 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,800 | 18.7 | 2.38 | 13.3 | 23.8 | 20.6% | 0.74 |
| Dak Prescott | $7,200 | 18.4 | 2.56 | 13.4 | 23.8 | 19.5% | 1.18 |
| Derek Carr | $7,200 | 17.4 | 2.44 | 12.6 | 22.2 | 16.0% | 0.81 |
| Geno Smith | $7,000 | 17.3 | 2.50 | 12.5 | 22.7 | 14.3% | 1.06 |
| Jared Goff | $7,300 | 16.5 | 2.28 | 11.7 | 21.9 | 12.8% | 0.65 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,500 | 16.3 | 2.17 | 11.1 | 21.5 | 13.1% | 0.47 |
| Marcus Mariota | $6,900 | 16.3 | 2.29 | 10.8 | 21.1 | 12.4% | 0.67 |
| Matthew Stafford | $7,000 | 15.9 | 2.25 | 11.3 | 20.4 | 9.2% | 0.57 |
| Andy Dalton | $7,100 | 15.3 | 2.25 | 11.2 | 20.4 | 10.0% | 0.56 |
| Sam Ehlinger | $6,000 | 15.3 | 2.50 | 10.0 | 20.5 | 9.2% | 1.02 |
| Mac Jones | $6,600 | 14.6 | 2.24 | 10.3 | 19.4 | 5.7% | 0.56 |
| Malik Willis | $6,700 | 14.6 | 2.20 | 9.9 | 19.7 | 8.9% | 0.56 |
| Justin Fields | $6,500 | 14.3 | 2.26 | 9.1 | 19.5 | 7.2% | 0.62 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,100 | 14.2 | 1.99 | 9.7 | 19.3 | 7.3% | 0.37 |
| Kenny Pickett | $6,600 | 13.8 | 2.11 | 9.3 | 18.4 | 5.6% | 0.41 |
| Davis Mills | $6,500 | 13.7 | 2.09 | 9.4 | 18.8 | 5.9% | 0.48 |
| Zach Wilson | $6,400 | 13.0 | 2.07 | 8.5 | 18.2 | 5.7% | 0.44 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $6,400 | 13.0 | 2.04 | 8.2 | 17.5 | 4.4% | 0.39 |
| P.J. Walker | $6,400 | 13.0 | 1.99 | 8.4 | 17.5 | 3.2% | 0.33 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 20+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | $9,000 | 17.2 | 1.84 | 11.1 | 22.6 | 35.0% | 1.35 |
| Saquon Barkley | $9,500 | 17.1 | 1.80 | 11.5 | 22.5 | 36.2% | 1.10 |
| Tony Pollard | $6,300 | 17.0 | 2.70 | 11.4 | 22.2 | 35.0% | 4.72 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $8,500 | 16.9 | 1.98 | 11.8 | 22.4 | 35.2% | 1.82 |
| Derrick Henry | $10,000 | 16.9 | 1.68 | 11.6 | 21.9 | 33.9% | 0.78 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,800 | 16.7 | 2.20 | 11.0 | 22.3 | 33.7% | 2.42 |
| Jonathan Taylor | $8,300 | 16.0 | 1.91 | 10.4 | 21.6 | 30.2% | 1.47 |
| Dameon Pierce | $7,300 | 15.6 | 2.09 | 10.1 | 21.1 | 29.6% | 2.16 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $8,000 | 14.9 | 1.92 | 10.2 | 20.4 | 26.9% | 1.49 |
| Raheem Mostert | $6,800 | 14.7 | 2.24 | 9.6 | 20.3 | 26.2% | 2.37 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,200 | 14.6 | 1.76 | 9.2 | 19.4 | 22.7% | 1.01 |
| Kenneth Walker III | $8,400 | 14.5 | 1.77 | 9.9 | 19.8 | 24.1% | 1.02 |
| D'Andre Swift | $7,500 | 13.7 | 1.85 | 8.8 | 19.2 | 22.2% | 1.29 |
| Eno Benjamin | $7,000 | 12.6 | 1.85 | 7.9 | 18.1 | 15.9% | 1.22 |
| D'Onta Foreman | $6,400 | 12.2 | 1.91 | 7.4 | 17.2 | 14.0% | 1.37 |
| Miles Sanders | $7,400 | 11.9 | 1.57 | 6.4 | 16.5 | 13.0% | 0.67 |
| Michael Carter | $6,600 | 11.3 | 1.70 | 6.4 | 16.1 | 10.6% | 0.95 |
| Najee Harris | $6,600 | 10.9 | 1.66 | 6.6 | 16.2 | 10.7% | 0.87 |
| Darrell Henderson | $6,500 | 10.7 | 1.63 | 6.1 | 15.2 | 9.3% | 0.81 |
| David Montgomery | $6,700 | 10.3 | 1.54 | 5.6 | 14.6 | 7.1% | 0.57 |
| Tyler Allgeier | $6,100 | 9.7 | 1.56 | 4.7 | 14.2 | 5.2% | 0.69 |
| Brian Robinson | $6,000 | 9.2 | 1.49 | 5.0 | 13.9 | 5.0% | 0.68 |
| Jamaal Williams | $7,500 | 7.5 | 1.00 | 3.5 | 11.7 | 2.7% | 0.12 |
| Damien Harris | $7,000 | 6.7 | 0.94 | 2.6 | 11.2 | 1.7% | 0.12 |
| Antonio Gibson | $5,600 | 6.7 | 1.25 | 2.8 | 11.1 | 2.2% | 0.35 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,200 | 6.6 | 1.32 | 2.8 | 10.6 | 1.9% | 0.43 |
| Chase Edmonds | $5,700 | 6.3 | 1.09 | 2.6 | 10.4 | 2.0% | 0.24 |
| Khalil Herbert | $6,700 | 6.1 | 0.95 | 2.1 | 10.4 | 0.8% | 0.10 |
| Alexander Mattison | $5,200 | 6.0 | 1.11 | 1.7 | 9.8 | 1.0% | 0.30 |
| Caleb Huntley | $5,200 | 5.8 | 1.04 | 1.7 | 9.0 | 0.5% | 0.23 |
| Malcolm Brown | $5,100 | 5.2 | 1.07 | 1.3 | 9.4 | 0.4% | 0.27 |
| James Robinson | $5,600 | 5.1 | 0.93 | 1.3 | 8.9 | 0.6% | 0.16 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,100 | 5.1 | 1.02 | 1.3 | 9.2 | 0.4% | 0.24 |
| J.D. McKissic | $4,800 | 5.1 | 1.05 | 1.3 | 9.0 | 0.9% | 0.31 |
| Mark Ingram | $5,000 | 4.9 | 0.97 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 0.6% | 0.23 |
| Jeff Wilson | $5,700 | 4.7 | 0.76 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 0.1% | 0.09 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 17.5+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | $9,300 | 17.6 | 1.92 | 12.9 | 22.1 | 51.6% | 1.72 |
| Tyreek Hill | $8,700 | 16.9 | 1.94 | 12.2 | 21.6 | 47.1% | 1.80 |
| Justin Jefferson | $9,000 | 16.8 | 1.86 | 11.4 | 22.0 | 46.7% | 1.39 |
| Davante Adams | $8,500 | 16.5 | 1.94 | 11.8 | 21.3 | 42.8% | 1.66 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,900 | 14.9 | 1.90 | 9.7 | 20.6 | 38.5% | 1.41 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,500 | 14.3 | 1.95 | 10.4 | 18.9 | 32.8% | 1.65 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $7,200 | 13.6 | 1.84 | 9.4 | 17.1 | 23.2% | 1.33 |
| A.J. Brown | $8,200 | 13.3 | 1.63 | 8.7 | 18.0 | 27.0% | 0.71 |
| Chris Olave | $6,900 | 13.0 | 1.82 | 7.0 | 18.8 | 29.4% | 1.17 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $7,800 | 12.8 | 1.63 | 8.7 | 16.4 | 18.6% | 0.61 |
| D.J. Moore | $6,200 | 12.5 | 2.04 | 8.2 | 16.9 | 23.1% | 1.85 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,700 | 11.6 | 1.81 | 7.6 | 16.7 | 20.6% | 1.12 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,600 | 11.6 | 1.53 | 6.6 | 16.8 | 22.2% | 0.59 |
| DeVonta Smith | $6,900 | 11.3 | 1.66 | 6.9 | 15.7 | 17.9% | 0.83 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,100 | 11.0 | 1.76 | 6.5 | 14.8 | 13.3% | 1.00 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,200 | 10.7 | 1.67 | 6.3 | 14.4 | 10.6% | 0.83 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $7,100 | 10.7 | 1.50 | 6.5 | 14.4 | 11.4% | 0.46 |
| Drake London | $5,600 | 9.7 | 1.75 | 5.8 | 13.6 | 8.1% | 0.96 |
| Diontae Johnson | $6,300 | 9.6 | 1.51 | 5.0 | 13.6 | 10.4% | 0.54 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $7,000 | 9.5 | 1.42 | 5.4 | 13.7 | 11.7% | 0.41 |
| Garrett Wilson | $5,400 | 9.4 | 1.75 | 5.9 | 12.9 | 6.3% | 0.96 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,600 | 9.0 | 1.67 | 5.9 | 12.2 | 2.4% | 0.70 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,800 | 9.0 | 1.33 | 4.7 | 13.6 | 10.9% | 0.38 |
| Darnell Mooney | $6,100 | 8.9 | 1.56 | 5.0 | 13.7 | 11.2% | 0.65 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $6,600 | 8.8 | 1.29 | 4.7 | 12.7 | 5.9% | 0.29 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | $5,900 | 8.8 | 1.49 | 5.5 | 12.5 | 5.5% | 0.53 |
| Robert Woods | $5,700 | 8.7 | 1.54 | 5.2 | 12.3 | 4.8% | 0.56 |
| George Pickens | $5,500 | 8.3 | 1.50 | 4.3 | 12.6 | 7.2% | 0.64 |
| Michael Gallup | $5,800 | 8.1 | 1.35 | 3.9 | 11.8 | 3.8% | 0.40 |
| Chase Claypool | $6,000 | 8.0 | 1.31 | 4.1 | 12.0 | 5.2% | 0.38 |
| Josh Reynolds | $6,500 | 7.3 | 1.13 | 3.2 | 11.2 | 5.2% | 0.19 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,600 | 7.3 | 1.28 | 4.3 | 10.4 | 1.8% | 0.25 |
| Rondale Moore | $5,500 | 7.2 | 1.29 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 0.1% | 0.16 |
| Noah Brown | $5,500 | 7.1 | 1.30 | 4.1 | 10.5 | 2.2% | 0.33 |
| Allen Robinson | $5,600 | 6.6 | 1.17 | 3.1 | 9.9 | 1.2% | 0.23 |
| Tyquan Thornton | $5,700 | 6.6 | 1.16 | 3.2 | 9.9 | 1.5% | 0.22 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,700 | 6.6 | 1.12 | 2.6 | 10.1 | 3.9% | 0.26 |
| K.J. Osborn | $5,300 | 6.3 | 1.19 | 2.9 | 9.6 | 1.2% | 0.23 |
| Marquez Callaway | $5,000 | 6.2 | 1.24 | 2.7 | 9.7 | 1.8% | 0.35 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | $5,300 | 6.2 | 1.13 | 2.7 | 9.7 | 1.0% | 0.24 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,300 | 6.1 | 1.19 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 0.6% | 0.23 |
| Chris Moore | $5,200 | 6.0 | 1.17 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 0.1% | 0.13 |
| Alec Pierce | $5,800 | 6.0 | 1.00 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 1.2% | 0.15 |
| Elijah Moore | $5,000 | 6.0 | 1.19 | 2.6 | 9.5 | 1.5% | 0.30 |
| Kalif Raymond | $5,600 | 5.9 | 1.02 | 3.0 | 8.8 | 0.9% | 0.13 |
| Mack Hollins | $5,600 | 5.6 | 1.02 | 1.9 | 9.2 | 1.5% | 0.18 |
| Parris Campbell | $5,600 | 5.5 | 0.97 | 2.0 | 8.9 | 0.8% | 0.14 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $5,300 | 5.3 | 0.99 | 1.9 | 8.3 | 0.2% | 0.13 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,800 | 5.2 | 0.94 | 2.1 | 8.8 | 0.5% | 0.09 |
| Van Jefferson | $5,400 | 4.9 | 0.89 | 1.7 | 8.4 | 0.1% | 0.13 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | $5,200 | 4.7 | 0.93 | 1.8 | 7.7 | 0.1% | 0.09 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | $5,400 | 4.5 | 0.86 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 0.1% | 0.10 |
| Shi Smith | $5,100 | 4.4 | 0.90 | 1.6 | 7.3 | 0.1% | 0.06 |
| Marquise Goodwin | $5,600 | 4.0 | 0.69 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 0.2% | 0.04 |
| Robbie Anderson | $5,300 | 3.9 | 0.71 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 0.1% | 0.04 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct | 75 Pct | 15+ % | Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | $6,900 | 10.5 | 1.45 | 5.9 | 14.6 | 23.2% | 0.50 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,900 | 9.2 | 1.51 | 5.4 | 12.6 | 13.4% | 0.53 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,300 | 8.9 | 1.40 | 4.6 | 13.0 | 15.5% | 0.44 |
| Tyler Higbee | $6,000 | 8.8 | 1.43 | 5.3 | 12.0 | 10.4% | 0.43 |
| Zach Ertz | $6,000 | 8.1 | 1.31 | 4.0 | 11.8 | 10.4% | 0.35 |
| Foster Moreau | $5,000 | 7.9 | 1.58 | 4.2 | 11.5 | 8.8% | 0.71 |
| Kyle Pitts | $5,600 | 7.9 | 1.44 | 3.7 | 12.6 | 14.1% | 0.57 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,700 | 7.4 | 1.25 | 3.8 | 11.0 | 8.7% | 0.32 |
| Dalton Schultz | $5,100 | 6.9 | 1.38 | 3.5 | 10.6 | 6.9% | 0.44 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | $5,000 | 6.7 | 1.40 | 3.4 | 9.8 | 4.2% | 0.38 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,400 | 6.5 | 1.21 | 2.9 | 9.8 | 4.6% | 0.26 |
| Logan Thomas | $5,000 | 5.3 | 1.07 | 1.6 | 8.7 | 4.2% | 0.22 |
| Taysom Hill | $6,500 | 5.3 | 0.75 | 2.3 | 7.6 | 0.4% | 0.01 |
| Noah Fant | $4,700 | 5.2 | 1.13 | 2.0 | 8.3 | 2.1% | 0.23 |
| Hunter Henry | $5,100 | 4.9 | 1.00 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 3.3% | 0.17 |
| Tyler Conklin | $4,800 | 4.9 | 0.96 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 1.3% | 0.20 |
| Juwan Johnson | $5,200 | 4.8 | 0.91 | 1.6 | 8.3 | 2.2% | 0.14 |
| Cole Kmet | $4,600 | 4.4 | 0.94 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 1.4% | 0.20 |
| Brevin Jordan | $4,400 | 3.9 | 0.87 | 0.6 | 7.1 | 1.0% | 0.15 |
| Austin Hooper | $4,700 | 3.9 | 0.80 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 0.5% | 0.10 |