When playing daily fantasy football, we should be matchup sensitive when rostering players. One star player can go from a great play to a horrible one based on his opponents and the specific individual matchup might play a huge role in that. Since we can play any player we want on a given slate, it makes sense to pick players in the best matchups. This will raise both their floor and their ceiling and should lead to us having some winning lineups.
Through seven weeks of the season, it's getting easier to spot the big mismatches between teams. Let's look at four on the main slate in Week 8.
Miami's Passing Game vs. Detroit's Pass Defense
The Miami Dolphins went through a ton of changes in the offseason, with a new head coach in Mike McDaniel being perhaps the most important. There were some questions over how exactly he would run the offense and how much he would pass the ball, but he answered those questions very quickly.
McDaniel did not try to turn the Dolphins into the San Francisco 49ers. They rank fifth in pass-to-run ratio, and that includes some games with a combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson at quarterback. Now, with a healthy starter against a weak defense, we could see them go nuts this week.
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700) looked comfortable in his first game back, throwing 35 times for 261 yards, and 18 of those 35 attempts went to two players. Tyreek Hill ($8,700) saw 13 targets while Jaylen Waddle ($7,800) saw 5. The gap in target share on the season is much closer, and the good news is that these two players combine for over a 50% target share on the season. We want to target concentrated offenses like this because if that team goes off, we will likely know where the points are coming from.
The Dolphins get a matchup against the Detroit Lions that most offenses have taken advantage of this season. Detroit is dead last against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. If Miami keeps up their pass rate in this game, they could erupt against this weak defense.
Miami's implied team total is the highest on the slate, yet they are only 3.5-point favorites. If Detroit is able to push them, all three players in this passing game could have a ceiling outcome this week.
Derrick Henry vs. Houston's Rush Defense
The Tennessee Titans were not looking good after starting the season 0-2. It also wasn't looking good for Derrick Henry ($10,000) and his fantasy managers, as he had just 34 carries and a target for 107 total yards. Since then, both the team and the player have been pretty much what we've come to expect.
Henry is the RB3 in half-PPR points per game since Week 3. He's seen over 25 touches in every one of those games and over 30 in the last two. The targets he's seen are encouraging, as well, as three targets in three of those four games are really all you need when you have a running back who's this efficient on the ground. His game this week will set up perfectly for how he and the Titans want to play.
Tennessee will face the Houston Texans on Sunday, and there aren't many better spots. The Texans rank 31st in adjusted fantasy points per carry, and we all just saw Josh Jacobs tear them to shreds on the ground last week. Teams love to run against Houston, doing so at the sixth-highest rate this season. That suits the Titans perfectly, as they are one of five teams with more rush attempts than passes.
Henry should have no problem running all over the Texans. With many value options at running back, some fantasy players might not want to roster a back with a $10,000 salary. We've seen Henry have games that completely break the slate but not yet this year. This could be the first one of the season.
Davante Adams vs. New Orleans' Secondary
The Davante Adams ($8,500) trade sent shockwaves around the NFL. We've seen how badly the Green Bay Packers have struggled without him, and the Las Vegas Raiders have really come to rely on him. This week, he gets a sneaky-good matchup that is boosted by a few injuries.
Adams always dominated in underlying usage metrics in Green Bay, and his numbers this season aren't much different. He actually has a higher target share this season than he did in the previous two years with the Packers. He's also seen a massive 42.4% of the team's air yards and is third in the league in red zone targets. This usage is everything we want from a receiver.
The Raiders are on the road against the New Orleans Saints in Week 8. This normally wouldn't be a spot to target, but it is for a few reasons. The Saints are 29th in adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to the position on the season, and it's been even worse over the last few weeks.
Marshon Lattimore, the Saints' best cornerback, left Week 5's matchup with the Seattle Seahawks early. In that game, New Orleans allowed Tyler Lockett to have 104 yards and 2 touchdowns. In Week 6, Ja'Marr Chase went nuts for 132 yards and also had 2 scores. Then DeAndre Hopkins came off a suspension and had 10 catches for 103 yards in his first game of the season.
Lattimore will be out again, and it will be tough for the remaining Saints' defensive backs to match up with Adams.
The Raiders are favored on the road for this game and likely will be throwing to Adams a lot. It's certainly a secondary he can win against consistently, making him a fine play in all formats.
San Francisco's Defense vs. the Rams' Offense
The San Francisco 49ers are coming off consecutive losses but still are in decent shape in their division. They'll have a huge divisional matchup this week, and it's one that they've already dominated this season.
With many injuries on the offensive side of the ball, the Niners have had to rely on their defense. They are totally fine doing that, as it has led them to success over the past few seasons. They are third in the league in adjusted sack rate and ninth in points allowed per game.
As a fantasy defense, the San Francisco D/ST ($4,500) has had three games with more than 15 FanDuel points.
One of those games came against the Los Angeles Rams, who they'll play this week. San Francisco had seven sacks, forced two turnovers, scored a touchdown, and only allowed nine points in that Week 4 matchup. Protecting the quarterback has been a problem for the Rams all season, as they rank 26th in adjusted sack rate allowed.
The Niners are 1.5-point favorites on the road despite their last two losses and the Rams coming off their bye week. That says a lot about how the betting market feels about these two teams, and San Francisco's defense should be able to force the quarterback into mistakes.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.