When playing daily fantasy football, we should be matchup sensitive when rostering players. One star player can go from a great play to a horrible one based on his opponents and the specific individual matchup might play a huge role in that. Since we can play any player we want on a given slate, it makes sense to pick players in the best matchups. This will raise both their floor and their ceiling, and that should lead to us having some winning lineups.
Without many high-total games this week, we'll have a dig a bit deeper to find the best matchups to target.
Bills' Passing Game vs. the Browns' Pass Defense
Earlier in the week, this matchup looked like it was going to be spoiled by bad weather. With the game being moved indoors in Detroit, though, we can now fully take advantage of this spot. The Buffalo Bills are coming off two consecutive losses but now are in a great spot to get back to what they do best.
The elbow injury didn't seem to hamper Josh Allen ($9,200) too much, as he threw for 330 yards last week. He did throw two interceptions, but that seemed to be in an attempt to force things rather than because of a physical ailment. Stefon Diggs ($9,400) matched his season high with 12 catches, and he is now the WR1 by half-PPR points per game. These two are the obvious starting points of a Bills stack, but there are some other pieces we can add, as well.
Gabriel Davis ($7,100) is definitely not a safe play but has the boom-or-bust profile we like in tournaments. He has an average depth of target of 16.9 yards and is capable of making big plays. Dawson Knox ($5,100) can also be used in stacks with Allen as a touchdown-dependent tight end play.
The Bills' passing attack is one of the better targets every week, but the matchup doesn't get much better than this. They'll face a Cleveland Browns defense that has been getting shredded through the air this season. They rank 25th in schedule-adjusted pass defense and 23rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed per drop back. Against wide receivers, they rank dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target. It really could be a big game for Diggs and Davis, which would result in a big game for Allen.
The Bills now have the slate's highest implied team total. Buffalo ranks second in pass rate over expectation on the season, so they will likely be throwing the ball to score their points as usual.
Commanders' Running Game vs. the Texans' Rush Defense
Most people don't think of the Washington Commanders as an amazing team, and they would be correct. However, they did just beat the Philadelphia Eagles, and their 5-5 record has them with an outside shot at the playoffs. Their game plan should be similar to last week.
The Commanders ran the ball a whopping 49 times against the Eagles compared to just 32 drop backs for Taylor Heinicke. They like to use Brian Robinson ($6,600) for base downs and short-yardage situations. He saw 26 carries in the game and finished with 86 yards and a touchdown.
With J.D. McKissic injured, Antonio Gibson ($6,600) has finally seen more usage in the passing game. Gibson has caught 12 passes in the last three games to go along with a healthy share of rushing attempts.
One of these two backs could definitely end up being one of the better values on the slate in this matchup. The Commanders will face the Houston Texans, who will roll out one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. They are 31st in adjusted fantasy points per carry allowed to backs and allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. For Gibson, they are also 17th in adjusted fantasy points per target to running backs.
Both of these players make for interesting plays in large-field tournaments, but putting them in the same lineup is probably too thin.
Greg Dulcich vs. the Raiders' Linebackers and Secondary
People have loved to rip on the tight end position in recent years, and it's not unwarranted. There are very few tight ends who we can get excited about rostering on a week-to-week basis. Well, this week we are going to show some love to a rookie tight end who hopefully can be added to the pool of tight ends we like every week.
Greg Dulcich ($5,500) was highly productive at UCLA and had a fairly interesting athletic profile heading into the draft. He missed most of the offseason programs with an injury but returned with a touchdown in his first career NFL game.
He had two more promising performances before last week's dud, with just one catch for 11 yards. The encouraging part was that he ran a route on 39 of 48 Russell Wilson drop backs, and if he's out there on the field for most passing plays, he should get involved more often.
Dulcich will have a chance to redeem himself against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are not good in most defensive categories, including being 32nd against the pass by numberFire's metrics. Against tight ends specifically, they are dead last in adjusted fantasy points per target. With K.J. Hamler on injured reserve and Jerry Jeudy not practicing, the Broncos would be smart to lean on Dulcich more often this week.
If Denver was ever to get the passing game going this season, this should be the week. Dulcich fills out a weak position and is definitely in a good spot at just $5,500 this week.
Baltimore Defense vs. the Carolina Offense
At the start of the season, there may have been some optimism for the Carolina Panthers' offense. They acquired Baker Mayfield, had Christian McCaffrey coming back from injury, and had a solid, young number-one receiver in D.J. Moore. That optimism quickly evaporated, and they now have the 31st-ranked offense in the league.
The Baltimore D/ST ($4,700) has been good in fantasy this season, ranking eighth in points per game. They are also eighth in adjusted sack rate and had one of their best performances of the season before the bye. They dominated the New Orleans Saints on the road, holding them to just 13 points while also recording 4 sacks and an interception.
The Panthers are turning back to Mayfield as the starter with P.J. Walker injured. Baker was arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL when he started this season, with four interceptions and six fumbles in five starts. He's also taken sacks at an eight percent clip.
Baker struggled to move the ball with Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey, so it will be tough to see how he does it with their backups against a stellar Ravens defense. Baltimore should be able to get after him and cause a ton of mistakes in this game. The Panthers have a measly implied team total of just 14.25 points, lower than any team by over three points.
If you can afford a $4,700 defense, Baltimore's makes a ton of sense this week.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.