Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank | Rank Change | Playoff Odds | xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 9-2 | 10.07 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.30 |
| Bills | 8-3 | 8.79 | 2 | -1 | 96.3% | 2.08 |
| Cowboys | 8-3 | 8.21 | 3 | 0 | 99.6% | 2.54 |
| Eagles | 10-1 | 7.63 | 4 | 0 | 100.0% | 2.37 |
| Bengals | 7-4 | 7.52 | 5 | 0 | 76.1% | 1.88 |
| Ravens | 7-4 | 4.23 | 6 | 0 | 88.7% | 2.01 |
| 49ers | 7-4 | 4.15 | 7 | 0 | 98.2% | 1.85 |
| Jets | 7-4 | 4.08 | 8 | 1 | 44.9% | 1.66 |
| Dolphins | 8-3 | 3.65 | 9 | -1 | 88.7% | 1.39 |
| Buccaneers | 5-6 | 2.23 | 10 | 0 | 74.2% | 1.50 |
| Patriots | 6-5 | 1.71 | 11 | 0 | 27.1% | 1.61 |
| Vikings | 9-2 | 1.35 | 12 | 1 | 99.8% | 1.86 |
| Titans | 7-4 | 1.01 | 13 | -1 | 88.6% | 1.41 |
| Browns | 4-7 | -0.53 | 14 | 5 | 6.3% | 1.44 |
| Commanders | 7-5 | -0.67 | 15 | -1 | 52.6% | 1.35 |
| Jaguars | 4-7 | -0.76 | 16 | 0 | 14.0% | 1.22 |
| Packers | 4-8 | -1.15 | 17 | 1 | 3.7% | 1.55 |
| Steelers | 4-7 | -1.31 | 18 | 3 | 1.0% | 1.54 |
| Giants | 7-4 | -1.33 | 19 | -4 | 43.9% | 1.21 |
| Chargers | 6-5 | -2.43 | 20 | 2 | 61.6% | 1.31 |
| Broncos | 3-8 | -2.67 | 21 | -4 | 0.0% | 0.95 |
| Seahawks | 6-5 | -3.10 | 22 | -2 | 79.0% | 1.43 |
| Saints | 4-8 | -3.65 | 23 | 0 | 4.5% | 1.23 |
| Cardinals | 4-8 | -3.82 | 24 | 0 | 0.1% | 1.14 |
| Lions | 4-7 | -4.12 | 25 | 3 | 9.7% | 1.00 |
| Raiders | 4-7 | -4.65 | 26 | 4 | 5.0% | 1.27 |
| Rams | 3-8 | -4.66 | 27 | -1 | 2.0% | 1.38 |
| Panthers | 4-8 | -5.28 | 28 | 3 | 8.9% | 1.31 |
| Bears | 3-9 | -5.39 | 29 | -4 | 0.0% | 0.63 |
| Falcons | 5-7 | -5.57 | 30 | -1 | 23.8% | 0.95 |
| Colts | 4-7-1 | -5.80 | 31 | -4 | 1.7% | 0.77 |
| Texans | 1-9-1 | -12.73 | 32 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.35 |
We have a new number-one team, the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City has reeled off five straight wins by 21, 3, 10, 3, and 16 points. Their losses this season have been by 3 points (to the 31st-ranked Indianapolis Colts on the road) and by 4 points (to the 2nd-ranked Buffalo Bills at home). They're not far off from an 11-0 record. Overall, the Chiefs now have a league-best 20.5% Super Bowl win probability. Only three other teams are in the double-digits: the Bills (17.3%), the Philadelphia Eagles (16.2%), and the San Francisco 49ers (10.1%).
The New York Jets keep raising their nERD. It's now 4.08, up 1.39 points from a week ago and 4.80 points from the start the season. The Jets' upcoming schedule will test them; four of their final six are on the road. They play the Minnesota Vikings (12th in nERD) and the Bills (2nd) on the road before a stretch of winnable games against the Detroit Lions (25th), Jacksonville Jaguars (16th), and the Seattle Seahawks (22nd). They'll close out the season in what could be a pivotal game against the Miami Dolphins (9th) in Miami.
A Thanksgiving loss for the New England Patriots was very costly for their playoff odds. Their odds fell from 46.4% to 27.1%, a dip of 19.3 points. No other team came close to that big of a downward shift this week. The Patriots are now a true outlier. They're 11th in nERD but are under 30% likely to make the playoffs. Only the Jets (44.9%) are also below 74.2% likely to make the playoffs among top-13 squads by nERD.
This one won't get much attention, but the Washington Commanders' playoff odds did jump 15.0 points to 52.6%. They have a schedule quirk upcoming during which they'll play the New York Giants (19th) on the road, have a bye, and then host them. In between those games for the Giants, they'll have to focus on the Eagles (4th). Despite a nERD score (-0.67) that puts them in the same tier as a lot of weaker teams (by record), the 7-5 start for Washington has them legitimately in the playoff mix.