This time of year is a dangerous one for the waistbands of my pants: my wife is an incredible baker, and she absolutely nails my favorite seasonal cookie -- the spritz.
Originally, these buttery, almondy treats were named Spritzgebäck, which is German for “sprayed/extruded pastry,” due to being made by squeezing them through a press with a changeable pattern on the front. In the U.S., we’ve tended to just shorten the name to “spritz,” presumably so we have more free time to shovel these sweet snacklings into our now-available mouth holes. They are great fun to bake and even more fun to consume.
You’ll find there’s a glut of defensive and streaming information at this time of the fantasy season, as well, with the playoffs finally nigh. Don’t try to fill up too much on every single data point as you go into your post-seasonal matchups; you just might pop. Instead “spritz” your lineup with help from those you can trust to bake you a batch of victories, and you’ll find yourself much more holly and jolly for the next few weeks.
Which defenses under 40% rostership should you look to stream in Week 15?
Last Week
Pittsburgh D/ST vs. BAL: 3 points, t-18th
Las Vegas D/ST at LAR: 9 points, t-5th
Arizona D/ST vs. NE: 3 points, t-18th
Defensive scoring was a fairly flat tier this week, and the teams that rose above the morass were largely the expected ones. A chalk week is tough for our purposes because D/ST streaming is predicated on the notion of exploiting the unpredictability of defensive units on a week-to-week basis.
That said, if you were lucky enough to be the team that grabbed the obvious smash spot Raiders off the wire, good on you. Despite giving fresh-off-waivers quarterback Baker Mayfield the win, Vegas only allowed 17 points while sacking Rams passers four times and forcing a fumble. It was still a good showing in an expected spot, so hopefully, you nailed this one with us.
Our perfect process defense and our “no-process” defense both flopped, however. Despite a picture-perfect environment against Ravens backup Tyler Huntley, the Steelers failed to do more than sack him twice. The Cardinals similarly racked up just one sack and one interception but allowed the Patriots three touchdowns and more than 300 yards.
Denver Broncos
vs. Arizona Cardinals
Spread: DEN -1.5
Total: 36.5
Roster Percentage: 43%
It should come as little surprise that the Arizona Cardinals are the offense we’re targeting with our top defensive streamer of the week. Dynamic quarterback Kyler Murray suffered a torn ACL on Monday night, which sidelines him for the rest of the season.
That will thrust backup Colt McCoy into spot-starting duty for the foreseeable future, which makes for a great defensive fantasy opportunity. McCoy hasn’t necessarily been one of the best quarterbacks for our purposes this season, with the lowest turnover-worthy play rate, per PFF, among the 42 quarterbacks to drop back at least 75 times. He also was in the bottom-10 among the same in allowed pressure rate, but Monday night showed his mortality: McCoy absorbed 18 pressures on just 50 drop backs, getting sacked 6 times.
With how banged-up the Cardinals are on offense (running back James Conner also left the game at one point), the Denver Broncos are in a great spot to snap a frustrating run of play against them here. Their secondary is the worst in the league by passing adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), but they are about league-average in pressure rate and sack conversion rate. That indicates a stable floor that should be boosted by Arizona’s vulnerability.
Our model projects the Denver D/ST for 8.9 fantasy points, the second-most among defensive options in Week 15. The Broncos will get to tee off on a limited passer in McCoy and a threadbare running back room. Don’t overthink this one; a perfect environment has presented itself, and the playoffs are too important to miss it.
Cleveland Browns
vs. Baltimore Ravens
Spread: CLE -3
Total: 37.5
Roster Percentage: 20%
Another quarterback injury means we have to take notice of the Cleveland Browns this week as they play the Baltimore Ravens. There is a non-zero chance that star passer Lamar Jackson returns this week to guide Baltimore, but it appears he’ll miss another game. With backup Huntley in the concussion protocol, that makes it likely that third-string rookie Anthony Brown will draw the start while practice squadder Brett Hundley could steal some chances too.
With Brown and Hundley combining for exactly 16 passing attempts in the last five NFL seasons (and a weather forecast predicting sleet, snow, and 16-mile-per-hour winds in Cleveland), we should expect the Ravens to feature a run-heavy offense. That will certainly reduce the interception upside for the Browns’ defense, but the inexperience under center for Baltimore’s likely starters should lead to communication issues, potential fumbles with a slippery football, and a sack-based floor for the Cleveland D.
Our model projects the Cleveland D/ST for 8.0 fantasy points, the eighth-highest fantasy projection of the week. With the Ravens down another quarterback, having clearly hampered skill position stars, and awful weather on the horizon, the Browns make for a high-floor option.
Carolina Panthers
vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: CAR -1.5
Total: 38.5
Roster Percentage: 7%
Our deep option for Week 15 is once again the Carolina Panthers. I don’t make the rules; I just enforce them when a team is misfortunate enough to be available and also plays a team with an injured quarterback.
That’s right, the column has a trifecta of quarterback woundings, with Pittsburgh Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett in the concussion protocol. His exit in Week 15 led to the “triumphant” return of Mitchell Trubisky, who tossed three interceptions and took a sack on just over 30 drop backs.
That’s great news for the Panthers, who rank an unfortunate fourth-worst in ANY/A. Carolina should be able to put the thumbscrews on Trubisky with a roughly league-average pressure rate, too, but it’s worth noting that the former first-rounder has only allowed more than one sack in a game twice in six contests this season. Carolina is a risky play, but one with plenty of potential this week.
Our model projects the Carolina D/ST for 8.1 fantasy points this week, which is the seventh-highest in our rankings. They're playing against Trubisky in yet another incredible projected environment -- what more do you need to know?