NFL
Justin Forsett Sticks With Baltimore: Can We Expect Him to Repeat His 2014 Success?
Justin Forsett came out of practically nowhere to post a stellar season in 2014. Is there reason to believe he can do it again?

By all accounts, three-year, $9 million deal. Forsett turns 30 in October, and this three-year deal will see him in purple and black until he's 32.

It's a modest deal in terms of money, so you won't find many -- including me -- bashing it. He was good last year, and there's no denying that. But the bigger question is whether there is reason to believe he can replicate his 2014 successes in 2015.

Forsett's Metrics

Forsett was the only back last year to hit 1,200 yards rushing and maintain a yards per carry average of at least 5.0 yards. That's telling, but the box score alone doesn't always represent what's happening on the field. That's where advanced metrics can come into play.

Our signature metric, one for 10 on attempts inside the 10, so we can't assume he'd be better if the Ravens got the ball in closer. Also, he didn't rely on long runs for just his touchdowns, either. According to Rich Hribar, 17% of Forsett's runs were longer than 10 yards, the fourth-highest rate in the league.

The Verdict

All of this -- his previous NEP totals and his long-run reliance -- suggests that Forsett is unlikely to boast metrics similar to his 2014 season -- let alone replicate his success. Forsett played at an extremely high level, but it's unfair to expect the same thing from him in 2015.

Baltimore's new offensive coordinator, Marc Trestman, seems willing to build on the offense rather than rework it entirely. That's a good fit for the Eagles, but Forsett's return to Baltimore should help keep their running game afloat.

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