The New Orleans Saints are having a fire sale.
for a fifth-round pick, and long-time running back agreed to terms with former Bills running back four-year, $18 million deal.
Spiller's Rushing NEP per carry looks like the big-air ramp at the X-Games, am I right?
Just like that joke, Spiller's career has been more miss than hit, as he has had had two impressive seasons and three concerning ones. Here are his metrics and Success Rate (which measures the rate at which a player adds positive gains to his team on his carries). The ranks are among the backs that year who saw at least 70 carries (to meet Spiller's baseline carries of 74 in 2010).
| Year | Rush NEP | Rank | Rush NEP/P | Rank | Success Rate | Rank | Total NEP | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | -10.17 | 39th/58 | -0.14 | 52nd/58 | 41.89% | 24th/58 | -3.25 | 38th/58 |
| 2011 | 12.79 | 8th/65 | 0.12 | 3rd/65 | 45.28% | 17th/65 | 25.17 | 12th/65 |
| 2012 | 25.45 | 2nd/59 | 0.12 | 3rd/59 | 49.28% | 8th/59 | 47.79 | 2nd/59 |
| 2013 | -12.74 | 43rd/57 | -0.06 | 35th/57 | 34.83% | 52nd/57 | -10.21 | 46th/57 |
| 2014 | -15.70 | 54th/61 | -0.20 | 60th/61 | 31.17% | 60th/61 | -10.45 | 56th/61 |
Looking solely at his Total NEP column (the two on the far right), it's evident that Spiller's overall impact (based on his Rushing NEP and Reception NEP) has actually been negative in three of his five years in the league. His Rushing NEP has been too far below zero for his receptions to make up for his negative impact on the ground.
As is expected from the home-run-hitting Spiller, his Success Rate has been concerning lately, as well. Unless the Saints can get out of Spiller the production he provided in 2011 and 2012, they're going to end up overpaying for an inefficient rusher whose upside is surprisingly capped despite his ostensible receiving ability.
A Messy Situation
The Saints' backfield has long plagued fantasy football owners, as the production has been very unpredictable on a game-to-game basis. Re-upping Ingram and losing both Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet suggested that the backfield might finally be more of a one- or two-man show (between Ingram and Khiry Robinson), but with the Spiller signing, we're back to a crowded backfield.
That's not necessarily bad news for the Saints themselves, but the most intriguing piece of this all is that Spiller's reported deal is actually worth more (four years, $18 million) than Ingram's (four years, $16 million). However, Spiller's metrics are trending downward, and Ingram's are trending up. Ingram's Rushing NEP per carry totals jumped from -0.07 in 2013 to 0.04 in 2014.
Ingram's Success Rate (45.58 percent) ranked ninth among the 32 backs with at least 150 carries this year, and his per-carry Rushing NEP ranked eighth. If Ingram can continue to move the sticks forward and Spiller can provide the big-play potential from 2011 and 2012, then the Saints might have an explosive offense yet again despite the departures of Graham, Stills, and Thomas.
However, giving Spiller more money than Ingram is a head-scratching move, as Spiller has been one of the least efficient players in the league in the last two seasons while he's been on the field.