With the playoff picture in the NFL heating up, the Baltimore Ravens host their bitter rivals -- the Pittsburgh Steelers -- in a pivotal AFC North matchup. Sadly, star quarterback Lamar Jackson will miss the game, so they'll need to overcome his absence if they want to stay in the hunt both for a division title and a Wild Card berth.
Per our power rankings, it could be a solid matchup, despite Jackson's absence. This time around, the home Ravens are 2.5-point favorites, and the over/under sits at 35.5 points, and we rank the Ravens eighth overall with the Steel Curtain just behind them at 14th.
On December 11th, the Ravens went to Pittsburgh and won by a narrow 16-14 margin. Let’s dive in and see if we can uncover any interesting betting angles for this contest.
Breaking Down the Matchup
Recently named as a Pro Bowl alternate, Tyler Huntley will need to significantly improve his play under center if the Ravens want to stay in this chase. While it has been a limited sample size, from an efficiency perspective, in terms of Passing Net Expected Points (NEP), Huntley has been pretty poor, clocking in with a -0.09 Passing NEP per pass drop back mark. I'd love to say that the opposing signal caller, Kenny Pickett, has been significantly better, but he hasn't. The rookie QB has logged a mark of only 0.00 himself. Perhaps that's the reason for such a low over/under total set by Vegas bettors.
Najee Harris has been struggling with a hip injury, and unfortunately, he hasn't been the most efficient of runners. Among the 30 runners with 150 or more carries, Harris ranks third-worst with a -0.10 Rushing NEP per rush. Yikes.
To be fair and not pick on the Ravens too much in dissecting this contest, they've been an excellent rushing offense (Second overall), but have done it with a plethora of runners contributing to the cause. Only Jackson has topped 100 carries on the season, with J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Kenyan Drake all toting the rock 75-plus times. A week ago, Dobbins carried the ball 12 times for 59 yards, while Edwards was a bit more effective, recording 11 carries for 99 yards. The Ravens rushed the ball 34 times a week ago, passing only 17 times.
Offensively, it's clear that the Baltimore Ravens are the better team, ranking 10th overall and are a strong rushing attack, as we mentioned. Pittsburgh's ninth-ranked running attack isn't anything to scoff at, but they are 18th overall.
Defensively, the Ravens get the slight edge here, clocking in 11th overall, while Pittsburgh is 13th overall. Both teams rank inside the top-8 against the run.
The Betting Numbers
As I said at the jump, the Ravens are 2.5-point home favorites, and the total has been set at 35.5 points. This low over/under total is primarily due to the fact that the Steelers rank 20th in pass percentage, and the Ravens rank 30th. This is a grinder type of football game. In five of the Ravens last six contests, dating back to Week 11, the high water mark for points scored in a game was the 30 points notched between these two squadrons.
Neither team has been particularly wonderful against the spread (ATS). The Steelers are 8-6-1 this year, and the Ravens are 6-8-1.
Interestingly, the Steelers have owned this matchup head-to-head on the Ravens home turf. The Steelers have beaten them four of the last five times at M&T Bank Stadium, and they have been tight contests. Over these last five head-to-head matchups, the combined margin of victory is 15 points.
Our algorithm concurs this should be a close game, predicting a 2.0-point win for the home Ravens to keep them firmly in the playoff chase. That makes this 2.5-point spread not a great bet, but we do call the OVER a five star bet here. Recent history continues to supplement, though, that the algorithm could be a little off here. The UNDER has hit in six of the last eight contests between these two teams in Baltimore, and the UNDER has hit in Baltimore's last five home games alone. Woof.
As we look at where the money is coming in over at FanDuel Sportsbook, the public is backing the road team. 64% of cash and 57% of bets support the road team.
I can't help but get all verklempt here in supporting a Gus Edwards over on rushing yards. Since returning from injury in late November, he's posted 50-plus rushing yards in four of his last give games, and the bet sits at only 39.5 yards (-110).
We project him for over 50.8 rushing yards. While he faces a Steelers rushing defense that is top-eight in yards per game allowed, they allowed over 200 rushing yards to this same Baltimore Ravens team in Week 14 and 146 rushing yards to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13.