Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams, but you'll often find some flawed ways of analyzing such data.
Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.
Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.
These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that.
This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on game situation and win probability).
Here are the results through Week 17.
| Pass/Run Plays Only | Adj. Seconds/ Play | Rank | Pass Rate +PROE | Rank | Pass Rate OE | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 22.8 | 1 | 72.3% | 2 | 4.5% | 5 |
| DAL | 25.0 | 2 | 46.9% | 25 | -5.6% | 24 |
| IND | 25.8 | 3 | 57.6% | 14 | -3.5% | 20 |
| LAC | 26.1 | 4 | 70.4% | 4 | 4.6% | 4 |
| SEA | 27.0 | 5 | 63.0% | 8 | 2.1% | 8 |
| ARI | 27.1 | 6 | 60.7% | 10 | -1.7% | 13 |
| NYG | 27.4 | 7 | 46.1% | 26 | -5.8% | 25 |
| NE | 28.0 | 8 | 56.9% | 16 | -1.7% | 12 |
| CHI | 28.2 | 9 | 29.2% | 32 | -14.4% | 32 |
| KC | 28.6 | 10 | 74.4% | 1 | 11.1% | 1 |
| MIN | 28.8 | 11 | 68.4% | 5 | 2.7% | 7 |
| DEN | 28.9 | 12 | 58.7% | 12 | -1.6% | 11 |
| CLE | 28.9 | 13 | 44.4% | 29 | -7.9% | 29 |
| DET | 29.0 | 14 | 54.7% | 18 | -2.0% | 14 |
| PHI | 29.2 | 15 | 50.7% | 21 | -1.4% | 10 |
| NYJ | 29.5 | 16 | 60.7% | 9 | -2.3% | 16 |
| NO | 29.5 | 17 | 49.2% | 23 | -6.1% | 26 |
| JAX | 29.6 | 18 | 57.8% | 13 | -0.3% | 9 |
| PIT | 29.6 | 19 | 52.7% | 20 | -3.2% | 18 |
| BUF | 29.6 | 20 | 65.6% | 7 | 6.0% | 3 |
| HOU | 29.9 | 21 | 58.8% | 11 | -2.3% | 15 |
| ATL | 30.0 | 22 | 30.6% | 31 | -14.1% | 31 |
| WAS | 30.6 | 23 | 48.6% | 24 | -6.8% | 27 |
| LA | 30.7 | 24 | 57.0% | 15 | -2.9% | 17 |
| TEN | 30.7 | 25 | 41.9% | 30 | -10.1% | 30 |
| CAR | 31.0 | 26 | 44.6% | 28 | -7.4% | 28 |
| CIN | 31.2 | 27 | 70.4% | 3 | 7.2% | 2 |
| SF | 31.6 | 28 | 49.6% | 22 | -3.9% | 21 |
| BAL | 33.0 | 29 | 45.2% | 27 | -4.6% | 23 |
| LV | 33.3 | 30 | 55.1% | 17 | -4.1% | 22 |
| MIA | 34.2 | 31 | 66.1% | 6 | 3.0% | 6 |
| GB | 36.0 | 32 | 54.3% | 19 | -3.4% | 19 |
| NFL Average | 29.3 | 55.3% | -2.3% |
Week 18 Preview
Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.
| Game | Avg. Adj. Pace | Rank | Avg. Pass% +PROE | Rank | Away Pace | Home Pace | Away Pass% +PROE | Home Pass% +PROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB@ATL | 26.4 | 1 | 51.5% | 10 | 22.8 | 30.0 | 72.3% | 30.6% |
| LAC@DEN | 27.5 | 2 | 64.5% | 2 | 26.1 | 28.9 | 70.4% | 58.7% |
| DAL@WAS | 27.8 | 3 | 47.8% | 15 | 25.0 | 30.6 | 46.9% | 48.6% |
| HOU@IND | 27.9 | 4 | 58.2% | 6 | 29.9 | 25.8 | 58.8% | 57.6% |
| NYG@PHI | 28.3 | 5 | 48.4% | 14 | 27.4 | 29.2 | 46.1% | 50.7% |
| MIN@CHI | 28.5 | 6 | 48.8% | 12 | 28.8 | 28.2 | 68.4% | 29.2% |
| NE@BUF | 28.8 | 7 | 61.3% | 4 | 28.0 | 29.6 | 56.9% | 65.6% |
| LA@SEA | 28.8 | 8 | 60.0% | 5 | 30.7 | 27.0 | 57.0% | 63.0% |
| CLE@PIT | 29.3 | 9 | 48.5% | 13 | 28.9 | 29.6 | 44.4% | 52.7% |
| ARI@SF | 29.4 | 10 | 55.2% | 8 | 27.1 | 31.6 | 60.7% | 49.6% |
| TEN@JAX | 30.2 | 11 | 49.8% | 11 | 30.7 | 29.6 | 41.9% | 57.8% |
| CAR@NO | 30.3 | 12 | 46.9% | 16 | 31.0 | 29.5 | 44.6% | 49.2% |
| KC@LV | 30.9 | 13 | 64.7% | 1 | 28.6 | 33.3 | 74.4% | 55.1% |
| NYJ@MIA | 31.8 | 14 | 63.4% | 3 | 29.5 | 34.2 | 60.7% | 66.1% |
| BAL@CIN | 32.1 | 15 | 57.8% | 7 | 33.0 | 31.2 | 45.2% | 70.4% |
| DET@GB | 32.5 | 16 | 54.5% | 9 | 29.0 | 36.0 | 54.7% | 54.3% |