Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 14 playoff teams.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank | Rank Change | Super Bowl Odds | xWin% This Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 13-3 | 9.59 | 1 | 0 | 20.1% | 66.3% |
| Chiefs | 14-3 | 9.40 | 2 | 1 | 24.7% | BYE |
| 49ers | 13-4 | 9.04 | 3 | 3 | 18.5% | 74.5% |
| Bengals | 12-4 | 8.64 | 4 | 0 | 9.4% | 74.5% |
| Eagles | 14-3 | 8.20 | 5 | 0 | 17.4% | BYE |
| Cowboys | 12-5 | 7.00 | 6 | -4 | 4.9% | 66.5% |
| Dolphins | 9-8 | 2.08 | 7 | 1 | 0.3% | 33.7% |
| Jaguars | 9-8 | 1.68 | 8 | 2 | 0.5% | 56.9% |
| Ravens | 10-7 | 1.39 | 10 | 1 | 0.2% | 25.5% |
| Buccaneers | 8-9 | 1.08 | 11 | -4 | 1.1% | 33.5% |
| Vikings | 13-4 | -0.09 | 15 | 1 | 1.0% | 49.0% |
| Chargers | 10-7 | -0.71 | 18 | -4 | 1.3% | 43.1% |
| Giants | 9-7-1 | -0.95 | 21 | -1 | 0.6% | 51.0% |
| Seahawks | 9-8 | -2.42 | 22 | 0 | 0.1% | 25.5% |
The top two teams in the AFC -- the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs -- comprise 44.8% of the expected Super Bowl Championships in numberFire's playoff simulations, which is very interesting given that the Cincinnati Bengals are also a top-four team and are within one point of nERD of each of them.
In total, the AFC holds a 56.5% Super Bowl win probability.
The lone NFC team in the top four is the San Francisco 49ers, whose 9.04 nERD makes them one of three teams at 9.00 or higher. They have bumped up three spots in our power rankings since last week.
The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are the other teams with nERD scores better than 7.00 before a drop off to the rest of the playoff teams.
In fact, just six teams have nERD scores above 2.08, meaning this is a pretty divisive postseason with top-heavy expectations.
Notably, four of the bottom five playoff teams by nERD come from the NFC, including three of the four teams with a negative nERD score.