If there was an MVP award for offseason hype, Head coach Dan Quinn started the affirmation by saying, “My first impression: I can feel the quickness… In our outside zone scheme I thought this is tailor-made for a guy who can really explode off the edge. I love this guy's competitive spirit."

Next, first-year offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan echoed that positive sentiment, stating that he “loved” Freeman as a college prospect and looked forward to evaluating on tape.

Not to be outdone, general manager Thomas Dimitroff, who drafted Freeman, said he believed the young back could “no question” serve as a full-time back in Atlanta’s new zone scheme.

So how did Freeman fare in 2014, and are his prospects heading into the 2015 season?

A Most Disappointing Year

We can begin by analyzing Freeman's season using numberFire’s unique metric, Net Expected Points (NEP). NEP assigns a value to each play based on how much that play increased the team’s chances of scoring on the drive. Add up all these changes -– measured in expected points -– and you get a more accurate depiction of a players contribution to the team. You can read more about NEP in our Pro Football Focus, and struggled all season to open lanes in the running game. The results weren’t pretty, but writing off the young back so soon seems premature.

My Fair Assessment

Yes, his preseason average draft position may be out of hand -- some early drafts have seen him go in the fourth and fifth rounds -- but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Freeman emerge as a useful RB2 next season in fantasy football. His skills are more suited to Shanahan’s zone scheme, a scheme that also seems to hide talent deficiencies on the offensive line. Freeman is a decisive runner with great quickness, and his ability to run inside and break tackles is above average for a back his size.

While his smallish frame may scare some, he is compactly built and is more Frank Gore than Giovani Bernard. His toughness and power on inside runs indicate he could be closer to being a feature player than most would think. That being said, he doesn’t have the size to take a 300-carry pounding, and the Falcons will surely be adding a power component to their backfield to ease the load.

Depending on what that investment is, don’t be surprised if you see Freeman with 200 combined touches next season. While the numbers were terrible last year (seriously, they were really bad), the system change and a healthier offensive line provide a bit of a fresh slate. With that being said, his value in early leagues being as high as Round 5 is simply hard to justify, no matter how optimistic you are. His inept 2014 performance provided no historical comparisons that would indicate a drastic improvement is around the corner, and his size and measurables (4.58 40-yard dash) profile him as more of a change-of-pace type back than a featured player, no matter what his coaches say. There are always exceptions, but you don't gamble on exceptions.

Is he worth a flier in fantasy leagues? Of course. But if you're drafting him to be a starter, your unbridled optimism is potentially spiraling out of control. Hope and change is a compelling message, but only when rooted in reality. And the reality for Devonta Freeman is that he has a long way to go before being a reliable fantasy -- and potentially real, on-the-field -- contributor.