There’s no manual for playing quarterback in the NFL. If there was, one of the first chapters would likely be on the importance of not turning the ball over. Coaches talk about it all the time -- it’s definitely a chapter in their cliche´ manual -- and quarterbacks themselves stress the importance of limiting turnovers to be successful in the league.
Turnovers can be the difference in
There are plot points are all over the graph, and the trendline even has a negative slope, meaning a higher college interception rate leads to a lower NFL rate (no causation, of course). For every
There’s a slightly better correlation in a three-year sample, but still not enough to make any definitive statements. No trends suggest quarterbacks prone to throwing interceptions in college will progress to be bad quarterbacks at the professional level. The same can be said about those quarterbacks who stayed away from interceptions in college and their ability to become above average starters.
Winston’s Comparables
Of the 38 quarterbacks chosen in the first round since 2000, only four have been selected after posting an interception rate above three percent in his final college season. Those four quarterbacks were Michael Vick (3.7), Rex Grossman (3.4), J.P. Losman (3.3) and Vince Young (3.1). When young quarterbacks identify older quarterbacks they want to model their careers after, that’s not the type of group that usually gets mentioned.
Take a look again at the final chart above. Notice the four rightmost dots and how none of them fall above the x-axis representing 0 Passing NEP. They aren’t the lowest totals on the chart, but none of those four quarterbacks reached a net positive value, according to Passing NEP, after their third season in the league.
This isn't to say Winston is destined to the fate of these quarterbacks. That group didn’t see their careers play out in a similar way. While Young and Losman flamed out, Vick and Grossman were both able to string along lengthy careers despite early-career struggles. While it seems Grossman has been in the league forever, he’s only had two seasons with 13 or more games played. In both of those seasons, he threw 20 interceptions. In one of those seasons, the Chicago Bears went to the Super Bowl.
It’s hard to compare Winston to Vick, the only quarterback of that group to be selected first overall. Vick’s early value came from his ability to make plays with his feet, as he was raw and developing as a passer. Winston is clearly more refined as a thrower, but the question still remains if that’s a good thing.
The promise surrounding Vick is that his throwing ability would progress to match his athleticism, and his mistakes would be diminished. Some of that held true, as Vick was the only player of this group to post a season with positive Passing NEP in his first three seasons.
Winston is nowhere near the athlete of Vick -- it’s ok, no one else is, either -- but his 4.97 40-yard dash time also vastly undersells his ability to move in the pocket and outmaneuver pressure. However, Winston is going to try to make many more plays with his arm, which could help lead to those high interception totals. If those decisions and throws are a result of being “refined,†it’s fair to wonder if those decisions or throws will improve at the pro level.
What we’ve proved so far is all of this proves very little. Winston's interceptions might be a problem, but there are examples showing the opposite stance as well. Winston isn’t destined to be a star nor can we say his tendency to throw interceptions will derail his career. Teams should definitely be concerned at the rate in which Winston turned the ball over during his last season in college, but it shouldn’t be enough to deter them from thinking he could find success in the NFL.