Growing up in small-town North Carolina, you tend to get used to there being only one game in town for whatever it is you want to do. Take going to the movies for example. With one cinema,and, often, only one movie being shown at a time, there’s going to be a whole lot of 12 year-old dudes going to watch Titanic circa-1996. Without a whole lot of options for fun outside of going to the movies, sometimes you have to learn to live with and love a classic Celine Dion song despite your outward misgivings.
In football, being the only game in town as a receiving threat can skew your production in a favorable direction. In other words, if you’re racking up 180 plus targets in a season, you’re putting up numbers regardless of your per-reception effectiveness.
So how do Garcon’s numbers look, and what does that tell us about what to expect for his 2015 season?
| Season | Receptions | Reception NEP | Targets | Reception NEP/Target | Catch Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 68 | 47.72 | 105 | 0.45 | 64.76% |
| 2013 | 113 | 109.62 | 182 | 0.60 | 62.09% |
| 2012 | 45 | 46.67 | 68 | 0.69 | 66.18% |
| 2011 | 70 | 59.28 | 134 | 0.44 | 52.24% |
| 2010 | 68 | 74.95 | 119 | 0.63 | 57.14% |
| 2009 | 47 | 63.26 | 92 | 0.69 | 51.09% |
As is evident, not only did Garcon's target volume plummet from 2013 to 2014, but his per-target contribution declined as well. Throughout Garcon’s career, he’s tiptoed around the league average in per-target efficiency with the glaring exceptions of his 2011 and 2014 seasons.
In 2011, as you might recall, Garcon was still an Indianapolis Colt. This was Fantasy Football Calculator sits at number 126, which seems like a fair bargain for a bench stash in case Jackson gets hurt.
With quarterback stability in place, which is certainly not a guarantee in Washington, Garcon could reach the level of production he achieved in 2010. But Garcon reaching his 2013 production is highly unlikely. So don’t expect to start Garcon in Week 1 (PPR league or not) and think you’ll come out looking like the evil genius.
Garcon’s just not the only game in town anymore, and he’s not even the best one at that. Sometimes, even small towns in North Carolina get a second movie theater, introducing new and more exciting options for your viewing pleasure.
And while we might never forget the lyrics to the Titanic soundtrack, eventually we stop humming the same tune in public.