NFL
Is the Cowboys’ 2015 Lead Running Back on the Roster?
The Cowboys have many formerly-hyped, potentially-talented backs on their roster. Could one be their feature back?

I’ve always been a fan of comic books and superheroes, but I was never able to get into DC Comics when I was younger. Part of this is due to the fact that my dad had reams and reams of Marvel Comics in our basement that I pored over as a child, but the stories that Marvel told always seemed more realistic as well. They were average people caught up in situations outside of their control, given superpowers not because they were born into them or sought to be a masked crusader on their own decision. They happened to be in the right place at the wrong time, but they stepped up and rose to the occasion. These stories were triumphs of the little guy.

It’s for this reason that I find myself fascinated with the current Dallas Cowboys’ depth chart at running back. Now that JJ Zachariason broke down exactly why McFadden has been so terrible even when he was healthy. You can check out JJ’s reasoninghere. I agree with every part of it.

Joseph Randle

The Cowboys’ selection at 151st overall in the 2013 NFL Draft, Randle has been useful as a change-of-pace player for the Cowboys, especially when Murray got banged up in 2013 for two games. With more of a primary runner physical and measurable profile than Lance Dunbar, he was the speed back toting the rock while Dunbar was the passing-down option in the Cowboys’ brief committee.

But how did he really perform when we break him down by NEP?

YearRush NEPPer RushRec NEPTarget NEP
2013-5.80 (58th)-0.11 (t-74th)3.24 (56th)2.39 (31st)
20145.44 (15th)0.11 (t-6th)0.54 (91st)-4.13 (88th)

As far as 50-carry backs go, Randle was pretty passable. This past season, he became a very efficient runner among those with at least 20 rushes on the season, ranking 6th in Rushing NEP on a per-attempt basis. With just over fifty rushes on the year, Randle ranked 15th in the league in raw Rushing NEP. This is absolutely exceptional considering the volume he received, and he could -– in theory -– progress even more on the ground if given a larger share of backfield touches.

Where Randle suffers, however, is in the receiving game. Not only did the Cowboys distrust him to the point that he was afforded just 15 targets combined over his two seasons, his net Target NEP was a paltry -1.74. This means that the Cowboys have actually lost the opportunity to score points –- which is really hard to do -– when throwing the ball to Randle. He has the running profile to succeed at the front of a committee, but his lack of reliability in the air makes him worrisome to count on as a true lead back.

Ryan Williams

Ryan Williams is the most enigmatic of all of the options on the roster. He received more guaranteed money on his latest contract than Darren McFadden, but has spent the last two years either rehabbing myriad shoulder and knee injuries on the Cardinals’ injured reserve list and Cowboys’ practice squad. This former 38th overall selection had loads of upside when selected, but could he still reach those heights?

In his only season active and healthy, his rookie 2012, Williams was highly ineffective. The table below shows this in very clear terms.

YearRush NEPPer RushRec NEPTarget NEP
2012-19.37 (85th)-0.33 (t-89th)3.17 (47th)-0.02 (53rd)

He was intended to be the complement to Beanie Wells, but even Wells himself got injured and the whole Cardinals’ backfield fell apart that year. That was the same year that the Cardinals’ quarterback and offensive line situations were both in absolute flux, which definitely impacted the running backs as well. Still, Williams was only a few shades above the worst runner in the league that year. He has the most well rounded game, but the most questions about his game.

"Shhh, My Common Sense is Tingling"

The section title here -– a spoof on the classic Spider-Man catchphrase by Marvel's “Merc with a Mouth”, Deadpool –- is the best way to summarize this group of runners. There is nothing but upside among these players, and I mean that in the most literal sense. McFadden and Williams appear too fragile to carry the load, and Dunbar and Randle both have incomplete skill sets. The Cowboys have been rumored as one of the favorites to select a rookie runner in the first round of the NFL Draft in a few weeks, and the need for this is made very clear when we break down the numbers. The Cowboys’ offensive line can make stars out of most players, but I doubt they’ll be able to work that kind of magic with these odds and ends.

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