When it comes to the NFL Draft, I hate the phrase "best player available."
I get what it means -- rather than going strictly for a need, teams select top players based on their evaluations leading up to the draft.
I'd argue that it's tough to draft without thinking about need, though, but boring you all with psychology isn't really the purpose of this rant of an introduction.
What I do know -- for a fact -- is that "best" is subjective. On top of that, player evaluation isn't perfect. And when you combine the two, teams begin making foolish decisions based on "best player available" logic.
Take the Rams, for example. Was Todd Gurley the best player on their draft board at pick 10? Apparently so. And they ended up drafting him despite the fact that they've selected multiple running backs through the draft in recent history -- they did this despite the fact that they had a depth chart with a few young NFL runners. Let's not pretend the Rams had zero needs, too, as if they were able to just pick whichever prospect they wanted.
Could Todd Gurley be a game-changing, tweeting about saving the running back position, and you've got yourself an even better situation.
What may go under the radar a bit is the fact that he's playing in an efficient passing offense, too. MockDraftable.com, Coleman may not have the best comparables in the world, but the situation and fit (remember, Kyle Shanahan's the offensive coordinator there now, who's not afraid to give the rock to young, unproven backs) is close to perfect for him to succeed in fantasy football. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he's one of the -- if not the -- best rookie running backs in fantasy this year.
It's Tough to Be High on T.J. Yeldon's Situation
Take everything I just said about Coleman's fit, and think the opposite for Yeldon. So much with fantasy football is driven through opportunity, and Yeldon should certainly have some of that in Jacksonville. However, opportunity also includes team situation. And no team was worse offensively than the Jags a season ago.
Going back to the article I wrote last year on touchdown potential and passing efficiency, I made the following conclusion, based on the numbers:
In essence, if you have a bottom 8 to 10 passing offense, in order to post in the 65th percentile in rushing touchdowns in a season (56/160), you’ll need to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, or have a future Hall-of-Fame running back.
In order for Yeldon to be a touchdown maker, According to Bruce Arians, as of today, it's not. According to our metrics, it should.
Last season, no running back lost more points on the ground for his team than Ellington. With a Rushing NEP of -28.34, he was six expected points worse than the second least effective runner, Darren McFadden.
It's kind of an amazing feat, because in 2013, among backs with 100 or more carries (Ellington had 117), Ellington ranked seventh best within the metric.
A huge reason for that though was his big-play ability. Though Ellington added expected points, his Success Rate was below average despite being efficient per play. In other words, the big runs skewed his average a bit, while from a "success or failure" standpoint, he was still pretty bad.
What this tells me -- and I'll ignore his injury from last year, because it's too difficult to quantify the difference it made -- is that Ellington is still best suited in a lower-volume role where he can stay fresh and make those big plays. He's a versatile back and can work for the Cardinals, but to assume he'll see 200-plus touches in 2015, to me, would be foolish.
The problem is that most draftniks see Johnson as an Ellington clone. Meaning, he may not be suited for an every-down role, either. However, we've seen plenty of backs in this situation translate successfully at the NFL level, and given Johnson's draft cost will be far cheaper than Ellington's come August -- more than likely, at least -- there's reason to believe he's the more worthwhile pick simply due to ambiguity. And given the fact that Ellington was so ineffective last year, I'm not sure why you'd feel confident in 2015. There's significant risk.
So Could David Cobb
Investing in the Titans backfield is like throwing money into a bonfire, but let's talk about the Tennessee running backs anyway.
During his rookie year, MockDraftable.com. But with such average backs ahead of him in the depth chart, he could see opportunity as a rookie.
It's just that the Tennessee running back job isn't all that desirable with a rookie quarterback, unknowns at wide receiver, and an offensive line that got little push last year. This is similar to Arizona, just on a smaller scale: the rookie could be the value pick, but the situation isn't ideal.
Lamar Miller's Job Is Still Safe
A pre-draft favorite by many, Jay Ajayi dropped to the fifth round last week, falling into the Miami Dolphins' lap. But I wouldn't be concerned, at least in the short term, about don't even be in the game anymore, but the Jets still have Chris Ivory, they signed Stevan Ridley and they just recently traded for Zac Stacy.
That gives us three veteran(ish) backs who have all carried the load for their team at least once in the NFL. The passing offense should be an improved one given the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall pre-draft, and field-stretcher Devin Smith during it, but even if the Jets move the ball down the field better than they did last year (which won't take much), there could be far too many question marks as to who's getting the bulk of the touches. As it stands, we have to wait and see how things shape up.
The Panthers Are Cool With Jonathan Stewart
While Jonathan Stewart is in a great spot fantasy football-wise for next year, his 2014 campaign is perhaps being a little overrated. It's exciting, I get it -- J-Stew finally was able to stay moderately healthy, and reached 170 carries for the first time since 2010. But his efficiency was lacking, rushing to a -0.06 Rushing NEP per tote, just a little better than his previous two seasons.
Fantasy football isn't just about efficiency though, and his yards per carry average was a strong 4.6 last year. The Panthers also only addressed the running back position in the fifth round, which is a big plus in Stewart's favor.
Unfortunately, Carolina did little in the draft to fix their biggest need -- offensive line -- which could hurt Stewart's potential in 2015.
But, again, what matters here is volume. And Stewart should be getting that next year -- as long as his fragile body can stay in one piece -- which means he's a viable starter in fake pigskin.
The Giants Appear to Be Fine With Their Mediocre Trio
In 2014, only Andre Ellington was worse among high-volume rushers than Andre Williams, according to our metrics. Rashad Jennings was better than Williams per touch, but his 0.00 Rushing NEP per attempt was barely above average. And Jennings is now 30 years old, which doesn't help in the optimism department.
New York did sign Shane Vereen over the offseason, but Vereen is nothing like a typical high-volume back. In fact, last year was his best season in terms of attempts, and he didn't even break 100 in what could be considered a pretty wide open backfield.
So what you have is an ineffective second-year runner in Williams who can't catch out of the backfield, a player in Vereen who can catch out of the backfield but may not be able to stay on the field to take a beating, and a 30-year-old Rashad Jennings, who's had his fair share of injury trouble throughout his career.
This, of course, is because the Giants didn't draft a running back this year, when they had a decent reason to go after one.
The G-Men offense should be a fun one this season with Ben McAdoo coordinating it again and Odell Beckham catching passes consistently for an entire season. The running back who emerges could actually have a good amount of fantasy value as a result. And because of historical numbers and ability, it seems like Rashad Jennings could be that dude. The only problem is his age and injury history. But as a middle-round pick, you could probably do a lot worse this year.