If you have dipped your toe -- or dove head first -- into the water that is daily fantasy sports (DFS), then you know that the daily variant of fantasy football is a completely different beast from season-long leagues.
Lineup construction is a constantly evolving practice. Your typical team is actually anything but typical as your lineups change week to week, requiring an ability to mine for value among inexpensive, unassuming players so that you can afford to pay for near-lock high performers.
Many DFS veterans advocate a “high floor†strategy when approaching cash games (50/50’s or head-to-head leagues), where, particularly on PPR (point per reception) DFS sites such as DraftKings, a premium is to be paid for pass-catching running backs. The logic (and much supporting data) behind this is that running backs tend to bring more stability and predictability to their point scoring than the other pass-catching positions.
This is a sound strategy for attacking DFS cash games, so I won’t argue against it. But putting a premium on expensive, pass-catching running backs (lookin’ at you, DraftKings as the pricing barometer) than the usually more expensive, high-performing wideouts. To do this, I utilized the services of one of Pro Football Focus’s signature stats, slot performance among wide receivers. I also utilized rotoguru.com for data on historical week-to-week daily fantasy pricing and performance from 2014.
Any receiver with over 75 total targets with at least 50% of their total routes run in the slot position qualified for this analysis. While the target cutoff might seem arbitrary, much of the art of DFS is aimed at identifying opportunity, a euphemism for targets in DFS circles.
Next, I took the top 20 wideouts in terms of Net Expected Points (NEP) generated from receptions. NEP is numberFire’s proprietary metric for analyzing on-field performance of players based on their performance above or under expectation. You can learn more about NEP DraftKings. All Hill did was score 32.3 DraftKings points in Gio Bernard’s absence due to injury. And all Brown did was rock the Baltimore Ravens for 34.4 points.
Yeah, I wouldn’t want to look that dumb either.
But all else being equal, slot receivers tend to be your safest bet for securing predictable outcomes so that you can afford, consistent, high-floor, high-ceiling, pass-catching running backs for your cash game lineups.
The tough choices nature of DFS can often have your heart and brain at war with each other. But riding in a boring car becomes a lot more exciting when you know it’s headed toward the bank.