NFL
Will Matt Forte See a Reduced Role Under John Fox?
Long-time Chicago running back Matt Forte will be entering his age-30 season this year. Will new head coach John Fox start phasing out the veteran in favor of youth?

After parting ways with the pass-friendly Marc Trestman this offseason, the Chicago Bears hired former Denver Broncos' head coach John Fox as his replacement.

The Bears needed to shake things up, and turned to Fox's 15-game playoff experience to turn things around following their own four-year playoff hiatus.

Coming off a career year in which he broke the running back receiving record with 102 receptions, recently told reporters that he wants to create a one-two punch by keeping a healthy rotation among his players to keep them fresh -- including his running backs.

After being on the field for 92% of last year's offensive snaps, could Matt Forte see a reduced role in 2015?

The Fox Factor

Shifting to the more run-oriented John Fox, the split among the Chicago Bears' running backs could become more divided than the monopoly Forte has held the past few years. Coach Fox has shown a tendency to use multiple running backs in tandem in the past, and could likely repeat that feat with his new team.

The table below shows the top-two running backs by offensive snap percentage of both Chicago and Denver the last three years.

YearTeamRunning BackOffensive Snap PercentageCarriesRushing YardsRushing NEP
2014CHIMatt Forte92.1%2661,0383.33
2014CHIKa'Deem Carey9.3%361581.01
2014DENC.J. Anderson43.8%17984917.93
2014DENRonnie Hillman27.5%106434-1.14
2013CHIMatt Forte87.8%2891,3396.53
2013CHIMichael Bush13.2%63197-8.15
2013DENKnowshon Moreno58.6%2411,03817.37
2013DENMontee Ball26.0%1205593.65
2012CHIMatt Forte66.2%2481,0942.43
2012CHIMichael Bush23.7%114411-5.22
2012DENWillis McGahee34.4%167731-2.31
2012DENKnowshon Moreno29.5%139525-3.24

Comparing Forte's heavy usage against the former Denver running backs, there are a few conclusions we can gather.

It's quite evident how much of a discrepancy there is between them in offensive snap percentage. Forte was indisputably the lead back as the offense focused around him, especially from 2013-2014 where Trestman was calling the shots.

Secondly, the high volume Forte has received hasn't necessarily translated to a high output in Rushing FootballOutsiders.com, Fox regularly used a variety of backs even when health wasn't a determining factor.

Producing more effective backs -- per Rushing NEP -- over the last couple years where Forte's offensive snap percentage spiked, Fox has had better efficiency from After eclipsing the 1,800-carry cliff last year, it's fair to bring into question Forte's outlook from a durability viewpoint.

Yet Forte easily sheds any durability doubts as he's played in all but five games over the course of his seven-year career. This week-to-week dependability has led to Forte seeing the sixth-most touches among all active running backs with 2,260 to his name. Forte has a good chance to buck the trend of falling productivity in the post 1,800-carry study for at least another year with both health and versatility in the passing game on his side.

Would dividing the carries amongst Forte and the other running backs on the roster -- incumbent brings speed, power, and a nose for the end zone to a Chicago offense that would welcome his skills after ranking 30th in rushing touchdown percentage last year.

Forte has never really had a knack for punching in the ball for pay dirt -- out of the 257 red zone rushing attempts Forte has had in his career, he's only crossed the pylons on 32 (12.5%) of those occasions. Incoming rookie Langford has had 40 rushing touchdowns trips in the last two years alone. However, after diving into his numbers a little more, he scored 15 times in the red zone out of 52 attempts (28.8%) in 13 games last year. While level of competition has to be taken into account, it's good to see that Chicago found a more adept finisher in this year's draft.

It's also of note that Ka'Deem Carey finished his last two collegiate years with 42 rushing touchdowns, yet he never took over that MyFantasyLeague.com, it seems the masses aren't ready to give up on Forte, and neither should Fox.

Handicapping his best player on offense -- in what could be a vain attempt to keep him "fresh" -- could lead to inconsistent drives and lost points. While Forte might not see the same 92% of offensive snaps entering 2015, Fox should still give him the majority of looks by a wide margin as Forte turns in another incredibly productive year in 2015.

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